Kareem Fahim of the New York Times writes (article copied below) that the Syrian government is cracking down on religious groups. To a large extent this move is a return to business as usual. When George Bush was making his big push into the region in 2003-2004, Syria cracked down on the secular opposition that responded to Bush’s pressure on the Syrian regime by organizing the Damascus Declaration in the spring of 2005. In order to shore up support on the right as it attacked the left, Damascus gave greater latitude to religious leaders and groups.

Today, the secular opposition is weak, and Washington has largely stopped pressuring the Syrian regime. The instability and radicalism left behind by the Bush years has manifested itself in largely religious forms. The Syrian government has reassessed the threat that it faces and is leaning on religious groups even as most secular opponents are getting out of jail.

Change in Syria’s alcohol laws: Syria’s law states that you cannot serve alcohol if you are 100 meter away from a religious place of worship. Last night they changed the law to 75 meters.

One SC member writes:

“Syrian Law prohibits any Muslim from acquiring a liquor license for his/her restaurant. In fact, the last government liquor license issued to anyone was in the early 60’s. Any new place serving liquor today is operating without a license – no matter how close or far from a mosque. Ever since the Ba’ath came to power, being as secular as it is, they did not issue a single liquor license, even to Christians. If they did, it would be anti-secular! No Christian, Muslim, Armenian, or whatever had ever received a liquor license since 1963.

New-York Times sept 3 2010

Syria Moves to Curb Influence of Muslim Conservatives
By KAREEM FAHIM

DAMASCUS, Syria — This country, which had sought to show solidarity with Islamist groups and allow religious figures a greater role in public life, has recently reversed course, moving forcefully to curb the influence of Muslim conservatives in its mosques, public universities and charities.

The government has asked imams for recordings of their Friday sermons and started to strictly monitor religious schools. Members of an influential Muslim women’s group have now been told to scale back activities like preaching or teaching Islamic law. And this summer, more than 1,000 teachers who wear the niqab, or the face veil, were transferred to administrative duties.

The crackdown, which began in 2008 but has gathered steam this summer, is an effort by President Bashar al-Assad to reassert Syria’s traditional secularism in the face of rising threats from radical groups in the region, Syrian officials say.

The policy amounts to a sharp reversal for Syria, which for years tolerated the rise of the conservatives. And it sets the government on the seemingly contradictory path of moving against political Islamists at home, while supporting movements like Hamas and Hezbollah abroad.

Syrian officials are adamant that the shifts stem from alarming domestic trends, and do not affect support for those groups, allies in their struggle against Israel. At the same time, they have spoken proudly about their secularizing campaign. Some Syrian analysts view that as an overture to the United States and European nations, which have been courting Syria as part of a strategy to isolate Iran and curb the influence of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Human rights advocates say the policy exacerbates pressing concerns: the arbitrary imprisonment of Islamists, as well as the continued failure to allow them any political space.

Pressure on Islamic conservatives in Syria began in earnest after a powerful car bomb exploded in the Syrian capital in September 2008, killing 17 people. The government blamed the radical group Fatah al-Islam.

“The bombing was the trigger, but the pressure had been building,” said Peter Harling, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “After a period of accommodation with the Islamic groups, the regime entered this far more proactive and repressive mode. It realizes the challenge that the Islamization of Syrian society poses.”

The government’s campaign drew wider notice this summer, when a decision to bar students wearing the niqab from registering for university classes was compared to a similar ban in France. That move seemed to underscore a reduced tolerance for strict observance by Muslims in public life. Syrian officials have put it differently, saying the niqab is “alien” to Syrian society.

The campaign carries risks for a secular government that has fought repeated, violent battles with Islamists in the past, most notably in 1982, when Mr. Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, razed the city of Hama while confronting the Muslim Brotherhood, killing tens of thousands of people. For the moment there has been no visible domestic backlash, but one cleric, who said he was dismissed without being given a reason two years ago, suggested that could change.

“The Islamists now have a strong argument that the regime is antagonizing the Muslims,” he said.

The government courted religious conservatives as Western powers moved to isolate Syria amid accusations that it was behind the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in 2005. The government appointed a sheik instead of a member of the ruling Baathist party to head the Ministry of Religious Affairs, and allowed, for the first time, religious activities in the stadium at Damascus University.

As the country emerged from that isolation, it focused on domestic challenges, including the fear that sectarian tensions in the region could spread — a recurring fear in Syria, a country with a Sunni majority ruled by Alawites, a religious minority.

The government also focused on conservatives. “What they had nourished and empowered, they felt the need to break,” said Hassan Abbas, a Syrian researcher.

The details of the campaign have remained murky, though Syrian officials have not been afraid to publicize its aims, including in foreign media outlets. In an interview with the American talk show host Charlie Rose in May, Mr. Assad was asked to name his biggest challenge.

“How we can keep our society as secular as it is today,” he said. “The challenge is the extremism in this region.”

Mr. Assad has in the past singled out northern Lebanon as a source of that extremism.

“We didn’t forget Nahr al-Bared,” said Mohammed al-Habash, a Syrian lawmaker, referring to battles in that region three years ago between Lebanese forces and Fatah al-Islam. “We have to take this seriously.”

Beginning in 2008, the government embarked on its new course when it fired administrators at several Islamic charities, according to the former cleric, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he feared reprisal by the government.

The clampdown has intensified in recent months. Last spring, the Qubaisiate, an underground women’s prayer group that was growing in prominence, was barred from meeting at mosques, according to members. Earlier this summer, top officials in Damascus Governorate were fired for their religious leanings, according to Syrian analysts.

Other moves underscore the delicacy of Mr. Assad’s campaign — or perhaps send mixed signals. A planned conference on secularism earlier this year, initially approved by the government, was abruptly canceled for no reason, according to Mr. Abbas.

“Secularism is their version of being secular,” Mr. Abbas said.

Another episode can be seen as a concession to Islamists, or a sign of just how comfortable the conservatives have become. A proposed rewrite of Syria’s personal status law, which governs civil matters, leaked last year, retained provisions that made it legal for men to marry girls as young as 13 years old. Under pressure, including from women’s groups, lawmakers abandoned the draft law.

“There are limits to what they can do,” Mr. Harling, the analyst, said of the Syrian government. “They will try things out and pedal back if things go too far. It says a lot about how difficult it is — even for a regime that is deeply secular itself and whose survival is tied to the secular nature of Syrian society.”

Nawara Mahfoud contributed reporting.

Comments from some Syrian readers about the NYTimes article:

A formidable balancing act for the government. I was personally very struck by how much more religious Syria has become. Aleppo has developed the area around the imposing and spectacular castle in order to attract tourists. Cars were banned from the area. Restaurants and cafes now dominate the scene. Having said that, you cannot have a single beer in the entire area. Not a single cafe or restaurant is allowed to do so. Why i asked? Because the area’s residents are too religious and hence would not allow any establishment to offer alcohol. Which tourist would choose to sit here and drink Pepsi I asked particularly when the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs are not exactly in Syria for the history and museums that it offers. Blank stares is what i got back. I offer this as an example. This is by far Aleppo’s most important tourist attraction. How the government allows residents to intimidate restaurant owners is very telling. It is almost like don’t ask don’t tell kind of arrangement. These restaurants and cafes will close down soon. You cannot survive the rent on selling Pepsi and tea. What a shame to see what this area can be and what it is today. It can put Lebanon to shame. It can take all the business that is going to that country. Instead, we want to bring our religion to the streets, cafes and restaurants. I hope that I am not offending my Muslim brothers on this list. I feel very strongly about this and I expressed my feelings to everyone in Aleppo that would listen including raees al baladiye

A reply from another reader:

Wait until the amazing Carlton Citadel hotel opens near the citadel. The ancient restored building was once a religious school. You’ll soon be able to sit in one of the hotel rooms overlooking the Citadel drinking beer (in a room where once student were being taught religious preaching). When Damascus’ Layla’s restaurant started serving alcohol on the terrace overlooking the grand mosque many eyebrows were raised. now the area next to the mosque has several restaurants serving alcohol.

It is only a matter of time.

Another response

It’s about time there was a crack down, but it’s not going to work, and I’m hoping it won’t backfire and produce the exact opposite results.  It’s is a day late and a dollar short, I’m afraid.

What has been proven time and again is that a hapless incompetent government cannot suppress religious movements that are a manifestation of uncertainty, ignorance, and hopelessness in an illiberal society like Syria. Someone from the Syrian leadership should have studied Egypt before embarking on such a stupid move.

You want to move people away from religious extremism that is coupled with ignorance and hopelessness?  Study the reasons first and address the underlying causes.  Don’t fight the symptoms, offer enlightenment and hope instead.

When Syrian women renounced the hijab, uncovered their heads and went “sufur” in the street back in the 20s and 30s, it was a sign of what Syrian thought a future free of the Ottomans and a dream of liberty. It didn’t take us long to screw that dream up, big time.

Another Commentator:

There are a number of measures the government ought to take that would quickly have a favorable impact; such as, narrowing the huge disparities of wealth (tax top earners) created through corruption (investigate a few big cases) and violation of the law with impunity (throw in jail a few convicted major violators regardless how big they might be), raise the salaries of government’s lower earners and pensioners (fund through cutting military spending and/or white elephant projects), take really serious steps to alleviate water and electricity shortages (fund through cutting military spending and/or white elephant projects) relax the state of emergency law, allow a bit of freedom of expression to opponents, reduce the degree of the cult of personality surrounding the Asad family.

Such actions could neutralize many who are candidates for religious orthodoxy or are ripe for radicalization. Such gain would, in my view, be achieved without causing serious threat to the stability of the regime. Then, sooner than later, genuine secularization can be introduced. Two areas are critical. The first is enacting a modern family law that would apply to every religion and sect. The second is reforming religious education in schools. Joshua’s research paper (Islamic Education in Syria) on the subject shows the dangers, in my opinion, of the existing curriculum. Modifying today’s material and adding to it material on ethics and comparative religious thought would translate to graduating students with a more balanced and mature view of life and the world.

I believe that the strength of the opposition to such reforms by Syria’s loud minority is exaggerated. It is the silent majority that counts here. The silent majority would hail these reforms. I’d love to see the results of a professional poll on the matter. The government should conduct such research. I suspect that the great majority of Syria’s women would support a new family law. Also, Syria’s educated and enlightened men would support such a law as well. I would guess that this category of men in Syria represent a majority of the country’s men. It must be made clear that religion in Syria shall be respected and that anyone can practice their chosen religion freely. What’s being advocated here is merely separating religion from the law and future law making. The manner through which such reforms is introduced is important to not inflame feelings and cut short the expected attempts of the loud active minority to spoil the effort. Turkey’s and Tunisia’s experience could have a calming effect.

FT [Reg]: Hizbollah leader denies rift with Syria
2010-09-03

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the radical Lebanese Shia group Hizbollah, denied that a rift was opening up between the Iranian-backed organisation and its Syrian allies during a speech given to mark a day of international solidarity with the …

Here is an email conversation with a few friends:

First response:

“I fail to see why Syria and HA would divorce. Lebanon’s Shiites are 40%+ of the population (and growing). HA is Lebanon’s best armed force. HA is Syria’s safety valve against Wahhabi infiltration into Lebanon via the Hariri Trojan Horse. I venture to say.”

Second response:

It is wishful thinking among the M14 and Saudis. I was dining yesterday with 10 or so Lebanese (Sunnis and Christians). They all had the same view (and were happy about it) that Syria sold HA for Saudi money. I told then that this is all wishful thinking and that HA is way too precious for Syria. They’ll be disappointed soon. Also

1-HA’s popularity among Syrians is legendary. No sane political leader in Syria would waste political capital by going against the popular hero who continue to give Israel a bloody nose on every occasion. Regardless if this political leader is a dictator or democratically elected, popular or not.

2-A key part of Asad’s soaring popularity in Syria and the region is his alliance with HA specifically. No reason to jeopardize this for mere useless brownie points with Obama or anyone else.

‎Third respondent:

I had a similar conversation with a Maronite group yesterday. They are all excited by the prospect that Syria will throw HA under the bus. I tried to tell me it ain’t happening.

Jerusalem Post: Arab World: Syria’s comeback game
2010-09-04

President Bashar Assad of Syria this week reiterated his country’s firm strategic alliance with Hizbullah. The occasion for the dictator’s remarks was the latest visit by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the Syrian capital. Assad’s …

Israeli-Palestinian Peace: Lowering the Bar on ‘Progress’
By Tony Karon in Time, Friday, Sep. 03, 2010

[The money quote] Abbas, may be hoping simply to demonstrate, with Americans in the room, that Netanyahu won’t willingly implement a viable two-state solution, and that if Washington believes, as Secretary of State Clinton emphasized, that a two-state peace is important to U.S. national security, it had better be prepared to pressure the Israelis. Obama’s retreat on the settlement freeze standoff suggests that may be wishful thinking.(See why Israel doesn’t care about peace.)

Asma al-Assad: Ceremony honoring Father Elias Zahlawi and Choir of Joy at the People Palace in Damascus

The Listening Post – The media and the ‘Ground Zero mosque’ story

Syrian Studies Association Newsletter, with a special focus on Syria studies in Scotland and Scandinavia, is now available online. The table of contents appears below; a link to the newspaper can be found at the end of this message.

* Letter from the President

* Syrian Studies Association News

Syria-Related MESA 2010 Panels

* Feature Articles

“The St Andrews University Centre for Syrian Studies” by Raymond Hinnebusch

“Syria Studies in Sweden” by Annika Rabo

“The Finnish Institute in Damascus” by Hannu Juusola

“Profile of a Swedish Arabist” by Steve Tamari

“New Private Library in Sha’alan” by Beverly A Levine

“Teaching with Middle Eastern Constitutions: Exploring Ideals, Assessing Realities” by Andrea L Stanton

To read this issue, click here:  or the
Syrian Studies Association homepage: www.ou.edu/ssa

Tony Blair confirms in his memoirs, A Journey, that Bashar al-Assad was correct to believe that George W Bush’s White House was deadly serious about destroying the Syrian state. Phils Sands of the National writes:

Describing the former US vice president as an advocate of “hard, hard power”, Mr Blair said Damascus was next on Mr Cheney’s hit list.

“He would have worked through the whole lot, Iraq, Syria, Iran, dealing with all their surrogates in the course of it – Hizbollah, Hamas, etc,” Mr Blair wrote in his autobiography, A Journey. “In other words, he thought the whole world had to be made anew, and that after September 11, it had to be done by force and with urgency.”

Syria’s correct assumption that powerful US forces wanted to attack it had profound implications, domestically and in Iraq. Although no friend of Saddam Hussein, Damascus had every reason to want the American occupation to fail and, therefore, no incentive to stop Islamist militants crossing the border to fight US troops. For years, US military officials complained that insurgents entering from Syria were among their most deadly opponents, playing a key role in undermining US attempts to build a Washington friendly Iraq.

Faced with this very real US threat, the Syrian authorities also moved to quash growing domestic dissent, arresting and jailing dozens of pro-democracy activists. That crackdown continues to this day.

We do not know who killed Rafiq Hariri, but President Bush’s intention to overturn the balance of power in the region included convincing Hariri to act as a spearhead in the US led attempt to make the world anew. We can only conclude that US ambitions had a lot to do with Hariri’s murder. The White House wanted to  destroy Hizbullah, weaken Iran and Syrian, and eventually overturn their states.  This gave all three regional powers a compelling interest in thwarting American plans. The fastest and most sure method of doing this was to eliminate Lebanon’s president. After all, was he not the tent-post holding up the modern Lebanese state? Rafiq al-Hariri was Mr. Lebanon. He had been the architect — almost single-handedly — of the modern Lebanese state. He patched up the age old alliance between Sunnis and Christians that had formed the cornerstone of the Lebanese National Pact. He found an accommodation with the Shiite community and Hizbullah within that framework. He used gobs of Saudi money, his ample personal charm, and uncommon international connections to grease the wheels of Lebanon’s new convivienda.

Destroying Hariri dissolved the glue that held together Lebanon’s waring communities. Hariri knew that President Bush and Jacque Chirac were gambling with his life. His reluctance to face down Syria and Hizbullah is well documented.  Of course, Bush and Chirac coated their entreaties with promises of aid, assurances that they would bringing along the Saudis, and insistence that this time, realities had changed. Syria was a house of cards, they insisted; Bashar al-Assad, a paper tiger; and Hizbullah a puppet that could be easily eliminated. America would follow through. 9-11 had changed America and change the world. President Bush and Dick Cheney’s soaring ambition did not ignite the car bomb that killed Hariri, but in many ways it set the region on fire. For Hariri, it was the beginning of the end. Fortunately for Lebanon, the insecurity that followed Hariri’s death enduring for only a short period. In Iraq, it continues today and many continue to die.

Syria Holds Lebanon Shiite Cleric As Suspected
2010-09-02

BEIRUT — A Lebanese Shiite cleric known as a critic of Syrian-backed Hezbollah has been arrested in Syria on suspicion of spying for Israel, a high-ranking Lebanese security official said on Thursday.

“Sheikh Hassan Msheymish was arrested in July in Syria based on data Lebanese police intelligence had sent to Syrian authorities indicating that he was implicated in collaborating with Israel,” the official told AFP.

Msheymish was still being interrogated by Syrian authorities as preliminary information gathered by Lebanese intelligence indicated he may have spied on targets in Syria, the official said.

The cleric’s son, Ali Msheymish, told AFP there was no proof to the allegations against his father.

“These are unfounded accusations. How come we still know nothing of the results of the investigation two months after his arrest?” he asked, while confirming the Shiite cleric was a vocal critic of the Shiite militant group Hezbollah.

“His continued arrest is with the approval of political parties, especially Hezbollah,” he said.

The sheikh’s family told AFP in July that Msheymish had been detained while on his way for a pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca in western Saudi Arabia.

A judicial source, meanwhile, said two Lebanese nationals and two Palestinians have been charged in military court with collaboration with Israel, including a telecom ministry official, Toni Boutros.

The other Lebanese, Joseph Kassis, is on the run, he said.

More than 100 people have been arrested in Lebanon on suspicion of espionage since April 2009, including several telecom employees, members of the security forces and active members of the military.

Many of the suspects are accused of having helped Israel identify targets during its devastating 2006 war with Hezbollah.

Five of those tried have been sentenced to death for spying for the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.

Lebanon and Israel remain technically in a state of war, and convicted spies face life in prison with hard labour or the death penalty if found guilty of contributing to Lebanese loss of life.

Gen. Yuri Ivanov, 52, deputy head of GRU

According to a new Israeli book (excerpted below) General Mohammed Suleiman was assassinated by two Israeli snipers. A number of analysts quoted by Nicholas Blanford in Time Magazine argued that he was killed by Syrians due to factional squabbles within the regime. The same thing was said about the assassinated of Imad Mughniyeh. It would seem that both were taken out by Israel, perhaps with some US intelligence assistance. This raises questions about who may have killed Major-General Yuri Ivanov. He was the deputy head of Russia’s foreign military intelligence arm known as GRU which is thought to operate the biggest network of foreign spies out of all of Russia’s clandestine intelligence services. He disappeared from the coast of Lattakia and his body washed up in Turkey.

http://www.myfaithmyvoice.com/ – watch a well done video – 1 minute – on US Muslims

US Seeks Israel Peace Talks With Syria, Lebanon – Envoy
2010-09-01

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States is pushing for peace talks between Israel, Syria and Lebanon, US envoy George Mitchell said, as the Israelis prepared to resume direct negotiations with the Palestinians.

Wider peace talks between Israel and its northern Arab neighbors, which have been in perpetual conflict with the Jewish state since its creation in 1948, are seen as vital to any lasting peace in the region.

“With respect to Syria, our efforts continue to try to engage Israel and Syria in discussions and negotiations that would lead to peace there and also Israel and Lebanon,” said Mitchell, US President Barack Obama’s Middle East envoy.

“You will recall that when the president announced my appointment two days after he entered office, he referred to comprehensive peace and defined it as Israel and Palestinians, Israel and Syria, Israel and Lebanon, and Israel at peace with and having normal relations with all of its Arab neighbors,” Mitchell said, before adding: “And that remains our objective.”

The US envoy was briefing journalists ahead of Thursday’s resumption of direct peace talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas.

Top level talks in search of an elusive Middle East peace deal broke off in December 2008 when Israel invaded the Palestinian Gaza Strip to halt militant rocket fire on its south.

Daniel Levy, the Director of the Middle East Task Force of the New America Foundation provides the full audio of their briefing on the new peace talks. Also, here is his take: “Want That Israeli-Palestinian Peace Deal, Mr. President? Perform a C-Section,”on the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks at Huffington Post.

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman offers a different take. Speaking in Norway, he suggests that Europeans pressure the US and Israel to follow international law: “America’s Faltering Search for Peace in the Middle East: Openings for Others?”

OBG hails Syrian economic performance
2010-09-01 13:14:09.451 GMT

DAMASCUS, September 1 (Xinhua) — Oxford Business Group (OBG), in its recently issued report, hailed Syria’s economic performance, the official SANA news agency reported Wednesday.

In its annual report, OBG elaborated the remarkable progress achieved by Syria in liberalizing its economy.

“The successful steps taken by Syria in liberalizing its economy have been matched with its achievements on the international stage,” SANA quoted the report as saying.

It also said Syrian government efforts to establish an active public-private partnership have led to the increase in investment projects and other economic activities.

Syria’s annual growth rate has reached 5.5 percent during 2009 while its GDP has increased to 31 billion U.S. dollars in the same year. Private sector’s contribution to GDP reached 65.5 percent in 2009 compared with 64.7 percent in 2008.

Top Russian Spy’s Body Washes Up ‘After Swimming Accident’
2010-08-31, Andrew Osborn

Aug. 31 (Telegraph) — Major-General Yuri Ivanov, 52, was the deputy head of Russia’s foreign military intelligence arm known as GRU which is thought to operate the biggest network of foreign spies out of all of Russia’s clandestine intelligence services.

His badly decomposed body was found washed up on the Turkish coast by local fishermen earlier this month after he disappeared in the Syrian coastal resort of Latakia further south. The Russian army’s in-house newspaper, Red Star, did not report his death until last Saturday when he was quietly buried in Moscow.

The circumstances of his death are reminiscent of a John Le Carre novel and have therefore fuelled theories that he may have been murdered in Syria and his body then thrown into the Mediterranean where it drifted for days.

According to the Kremlin, he was on holiday in Syria and died in a tragic swimming accident. However, other reports have suggested he was on official business and the location where he is reported to have disappeared was only about fifty miles from a strategically vital Russian naval facility in the Syrian port of Tartus which is being expanded and upgraded to service and refuel ships from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

The facility is Russia’s only foothold in the Mediterranean Sea, and Mossad, Israel’s national intelligence agency, is know to be concerned that Moscow will use the upgraded facility as a base for spy ships and electronic espionage directed at the Middle East. The port is also close to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, a terminal for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline which is seen as a lifeline for Georgia, against whom Russia fought a short war in 2008.

The long road to Syria
Ynetnews special: New book reveals full story behind bombing of Syrian reactor by Israel

…Assassination in Syria

On the evening of August 2, 2008, 11 months after the bombing of the reactor, a festive dinner was held on the terrace of a summer house in Rimal al-Zahabiya, north of the Syrian city of Tartous. The summer house was adjacent to the shore and had a magnificent view. The terrace overlooked the sea and served as a refuge from the summer’s high humidity. The guests were close friends of the house’s owner, General Mohammed Suleiman, who had traveled there for a weekend break.

Suleiman was President Assad’s top aide on military and security matters. He was in charge of the reactor’s construction and its security. Government circles in Damascus referred to him Assad’s shadow. His office was located in the presidential palace, next to Assad’s, and few knew him in Syria and abroad. While Suleiman’s name was not mentioned in the media, Mossad and Western intelligence agencies knew him and his actions well. The 47-year-old Syrian was an engineering graduate of Damascus University. During his studies he befriended Basil Assad, then-President Hafez Assad’s firstborn son and Bashar Assad’s older brother. After Basil’s death in a road accident, his father was sure to bring Suleiman close to himself and his heir. In 2000, Hafez Assad died and his son Bashar was elected president. With his rise to power, the young president made Suleiman his confidant and close advisor.

Suleiman played a unique role: He was a member of the Syrian research board, which dealt with the development of missiles, chemical and biological weapons and nuclear research and development. As part of his job, he was Syria’s contact with North Korea. He coordinated the transfer of the reactor’s parts to Syria and was in charge of security arrangements for the North Korean scientists and technicians involved in its construction. The reactor’s bombing was a serious blow for Suleiman, but not a lethal one. After overcoming the initial shock, he began to plan the construction of an alternate reactor, for which a location had yet to be determined. Suleiman’s new mission was much more complex and difficult than before, since he was now aware that he was on the Israeli and American intelligence agencies’ radars.

Ahead of the next phase of his secret mission, Suleiman took a few days off and traveled to his summer home. A vacation and dinner with his friends was the best medicine for the pressure he was under. From his seat by the table he watched the waves lazily crawling up the shore. But what he didn’t see, at a distance of some 150 meters (165 yards) from the terrace, was two figures waiting, motionless in the dark water. They reached this point from a far off distance in a ship that dropped them off some two 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) from Suleiman’s house. From there they dived until they neared his home. The two were professional snipers, possessing a wealth of experience and nerves of steel. They carried their weapons in water-proof covers. When they reached the shore they immediately spotted Suleiman’s house. The information they received from their country’s intelligence agency was accurate. They identified the building and the terrace, scanned the people seated at the table and focused on their target: The general sitting opposite them, among his guests.

Around 9 pm the snipers returned to test their aim and range. They watched Suleiman, sitting on a chair at the center of the table surrounded by his friends. It was crowded around the table, which forced the snipers to reset their focus and aim at the host’s head. They continued to hide in the water. Then the signal was given. The two emerged from the water to the shore, moved closer to the house, aimed their rifles and shot Suleiman simultaneously. The hit was lethal. His head was first jolted back and then collapsed forward on the table. Those present did not understand what had happened, because they didn’t hear a sound – the rifles were equipped with silencers. Only after they noticed the blood flowing from Suleiman’s head did they realize he had been shot. A commotion broke out on the terrace, which enabled the snipers to flee via a pre-planned escape route. The Sunday Times reported a slightly different version, saying the snipers were IDF Flotilla 13 commandoes who arrived in Tartous on a luxury yacht belonging to an Israeli businessman, carried out their mission, and vanished.

Syria’s official bodies were shocked. The government initially kept quiet and did not address the reports of an assassination. There was much embarrassment. How did the hit team make it to northern Syria? How did it flee the site? Was there no place left in Syria where the regime’s heads could feel safe? Days after the incident a brief official statement was released saying, “Syria is holding an investigation to find those responsible for this crime.” But Arab media extensively reported on the affair from day one and raised speculations about the identities of the perpetrators. Arab newspapers focused on elements that had an interest in assassinating the general, and were quick to point to Israel. They also claimed that Israel carried out the assassination because of Suleiman’s involvement in the construction of the reactor Dir al-Zur. While Arab media sang Suleiman’s praises, Western intelligence agencies had a completely different reaction to his death. In the capitals of the free world, no one shed a tear over the general’s untimely passing.

Article written by Michael Bar-Zohar and Nissim Mishal, authors of recently released book “Mossad – The Great Operations.”

UN Tribunal Won’t File Indictment on Hariri Killing Next Month

01 Sep 2010, Source: Reuters
* Bellemare says hasn’t drafted indictment yet
* Rejects accusations that U.N. investigation is politicised
* Says Hezbollah evidence being assessed

BEIRUT, Sept 1 (Reuters) – The U.N. prosecutor investigating the killing of Lebanon’s former premier Rafik al-Hariri said he would not rush to indict suspects, dampening expectations of imminent indictments which had raised tensions in Lebanon.

“Let me state clearly that the indictment has not been drafted yet,” Daniel Bellemare said in an rare media interview published by the website NOW Lebanon. “I will only file the indictment when I am satisfied there is enough evidence”.

Media reports had said that Bellemare could issue indictments this month against members of the Shi’ite guerrilla group Hezbollah in connection with the 2005 bombing which killed Hariri and 22 other people. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who has denied any Hezbollah involvement in the killing and called the U.N. tribunal an “Israeli project”, stepped up his criticism in recent weeks. That raised tensions in the unity government led by Hariri’s son, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, who supports the U.N. court.

Bellemare rejected accusations that the five-year investigation was politicised. “We operate in a political context. But the decision that will be made is not a political decision,” he said.

HEZBOLLAH EVIDENCE ASSESSED

Asked if he would file any indictment by the end of the year, Bellemare said he was “very optimistic” and was moving as fast as possible. “Let’s say as soon as possible, but not sooner than possible,” he said.

He said video footage provided by Hezbollah, which Nasrallah said showed that Israeli drones had surveyed the route taken by Hariri’s motorcade before the bombing, was being assessed and was “not being taken lightly”. “If somebody comes to me with credible evidence that shows me that I may not be on the right path, whatever path I am on, then of course I will look at that material. That is exactly what we are doing,” he said, adding he did not know whether Hezbollah’s evidence would further delay any indictment.

Bellemare declined to say whether his team had questioned any Israelis. “What I am saying is that we are reviewing all the possible existing evidence.”

A rare glimpse from inside the prison: father and son al-Abdallah

When Bashar al-Assad came to power, Mohammad al-Abdallah believed things in Syria would finally change for good. Ten years later, he tells the story of a personal desillusionment.
By Mohammad al-Abdallah

Oslo’s Yossi Beilin in Bloomberg: (Thanks to our friend at Friday Lunch Club)

“… Netanyahu wasn’t voted in by the right wing to divide East Jerusalem or to resolve, even symbolically, the problem of Palestinian refugees. The distance between his positions and the minimum claims of the pragmatic Palestinian camp can’t be bridged. Even when he talks about a willingness to accept the two-state solution, and even when he makes promises to surprise, he reverts to a long list of positions that don’t allow him to reach a historic compromise.
Abbas can’t implement a peace agreement with Israel because as long as Hamas retains control of Gaza, Gaza won’t be part of the solution, and there can’t be any “safe passage” between the West Bank and Gaza. In addition, it won’t be possible to work out land swaps between Israel and the West Bank because the area designated for them is the region surrounding the Gaza Strip, and no Israeli government would agree to hand over land adjacent to Gaza while it is still under Hamas control.

This situation means we need to pursue a different line of thought, which will lead us, at this stage, to a solution that isn’t ideal, but which is far better than the continuation of the current situation: a partial agreement.”

Juliette Verhoeven and Lisalette Dijkers of Hivos and the University of Amsterdam announce a new website of the Knowledge Programme Civil Society in West Asia. It deals with Syria and Iran in particular with the goal of “generating and integrating knowledge on the roles and opportunities for civil society actors in democratization processes in politically challenging environments,” which is a mouthful. Both Heydemann nad Atassi have excellent articles on the site.

The Uncertain Future of Democracy Promotion, by Steven Heydemann
Review of Policy Paper Beyond Orthodox Approaches: Assessing Opportunities for Democracy Support in the Middle East and North Africa

Democracy promotion has had a tough decade, nowhere more so than in the Middle East. Ten years ago, the democratic optimism that followed the end of the Cold War was in relatively good health. Today, after a decade of authoritarian reversals, a sustained “backlash against democracy promotion,”[1] and authoritarian resurgence from Russia to Africa to Latin America, post-Cold War optimism has given way to a darker, more sober assessment of democratization’s limits. The Middle East in particular, with not a single experience of transition from Morocco to Iran, has been the crucible of hard-won lessons about the durability of authoritarian regimes and their resilience even in the face of quite extraordinary pressures.

Steven Walt on the direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians is appropriately pessimistic. Peter Harling and Robert Malley in Foreign Affairs argue that Obama must not use a simplistic measure for friends and enemies in the Middle East. They should not push Turkey, Qatar and even Syria aside because these countries refuse to follow the US on the Israel issue. ( See excerpts below)  Their advice is sound, but unlikely to do much good. With elections approaching, Obama has made every effort to close the gap between his administration and Israel. He is expending no political capital on countries such as Turkey and Syria. He has allowed the Republicans to freeze his effort to appoint ambassadors to both countries. In effect, Obama has allowed pro-Israel representatives to punish both countries for opposing Israeli policies in the region. The present lobbying by the US to stop French and Russian military sales to Lebanon and Syria is a case in point. Walt suggests that the peace talks are also dishonest as they will end up providing cover to Israeli settlers to carry on their expansion while nothing but hot air and false promises are left to create the illusion that the US is doing something to promote international law or fairness in the effort to create a Palestinian state.

If you want to understand what direction the region is really moving in, read Max Blumenthal’s, How to Kill Goyim and Influence People: Israeli Rabbis Defend Book’s Shocking Religious Defense of Killing Non-Jews (with Video) – A rabbinical guidebook for killing non-Jews has sparked an uproar in Israel and exposed the power that a bunch of genocidal theocrats wield over the government.

New Round Up

Beyond Moderates and Militants
How Obama Can Chart a New Course in the Middle East
By Robert Malley and Peter Harling
Foreign Affairs, September/October 2010 – Extracts

In the Middle East, U.S. President Barack Obama has spent the first year and a half of his presidency seeking to undo the damage wrought by his predecessor. He has made up some ground. But given how slowly U.S. policy has shifted, his administration runs the risk of implementing ideas that might have worked if President George W. Bush had pursued them a decade ago. The region, meanwhile, will have moved on.

It is a familiar pattern. For decades, the West has been playing catch-up with a region it pictures as stagnant. Yet the Middle East evolves faster and less predictably than Western policymakers imagine. As a rule, U.S. and European governments eventually grasp their missteps, yet by the time their belated realizations typically occur, their ensuing policy adjustments end up being hopelessly out of date and ineffective………….

The alternative is for the United States to play the role of conductor, coordinating the efforts of different nations even as it preserves its privileged ties to Israel and others. For example, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, together with Qatar and Turkey, could spearhead efforts to bring about Palestinian national reconciliation consistent with a continued U.S.-led peace process. Turkey, assuming that it mends its ties with Israel and maintains its newfound credibility in Arab countries, could serve as a channel to Hamas and Syria on peace talks or to Iran on the nuclear issue. Under the auspices of the United States, Iraq’s Arab neighbors and Iran could reach a minimal consensus on Iraq’s future aimed at maintaining Iraq’s territorial unity, preserving its Arab identity, protecting Kurdish rights, and ensuring healthy, balanced relations between Baghdad and Tehran. Washington should intensify its efforts to resume and conclude peace negotiations between Israel and Syria, which would do far more to affect Tehran’s calculations than several more rounds of UN sanctions. Syria also could be useful in reaching out to residual pockets of Sunni militants in Iraq…..

For the United States, adapting to new patterns of power would at a minimum mean accepting the need for internal Palestinian reconciliation and acknowledging that a strong, unified Palestinian partner is more likely to produce a sustainable peace agreement than a weak, fragmented one. The United States must take into account the concerns of different Israeli and Palestinian constituencies (for example, acceptance of the Jewish right to national self-determination and recognition of the historic injustice suffered by Palestinian refugees); acknowledge that meaningful Israeli-Syrian negotiations have become a necessary complement to Israeli-Palestinian talks, not a distraction from them; and grasp the necessity of including new regional actors to help achieve what is now beyond the ability of Washington and its allies to do on their own: giving legitimacy and credibility to an Israeli-Palestinian accord.

It will not be easy for the United States to undertake such a strategic shift, nor will it be risk free. Traditional allies, feeling jilted, might lose confidence or rebel; newfound partners, getting a whiff of U.S. weakness, could prove unreliable. Still, hanging on to an outmoded policy paradigm does not offer much hope. The likely consequences would be increased regional divisions, increased tensions, and increased chances of conflict. Obama began his presidency with the unmistakable ambition of turning a page. To succeed in the Middle East, he will have to go further and close the book on the failed policies of the past.

(The following four extracts are taken from Syria Report)

Government Provides Update on Works on the Tigris River Project
30 August 2010

A Syrian state official has announced that the very first phase of works on the project to divert water from the Tigris River was about to be completed.

Samir Moura, the head of the Water Resources Department in the Governorate of Hassakeh, where the Tigris lies, said that concrete works around the main pumping station in the project would be completed by the end of September.

The works are only worth SYP 252 million (USD 5.36 million), while the total cost of the Tigris Water Diversion Project is about SYP 150 billion (USD 3.20 billion). The works being done represent therefore only a tiny portion of the total but the fact that Mr Moura’s statement was published on the front page of Tishreen, a state daily on August 25, shows the need for the Government to publicise the advancement of works.

In June last year, as the country faced the consequences of a third consecutive year of drought, the Government announced that it would be accelerating works on a 30-year long project to use water from the Tigris River to irrigate some 150,000 hectares of land.

The Tigris River, which is sourced in Turkey, does not enter the Syrian territory as such but lies over the Syrian-Iraqi border. As a consequence Syria can use a small share of the River’s water but hasn’t done so yet.

The project to use the water from the Tigris has been discussed for decades. In April 1980, the Syrian Government actually signed a study and design contract with Agrocomplect, a Bulgarian engineering firm specialized in the field of irrigation, land-reclamation, water supply, and hydro technical and agro-industrial construction. However, budget constraints led to an indefinite postponement.

Besides irrigating directly some 150,000 Ha of land, part of the water will also be used to support another 60,000 Ha irrigation project that is supposed to be fed by the Khabour River, a tributary of the Euphrates. The Khabour has almost completely dried up because of upstream works by Turkey.

A new private university, the country’s sixteenth, has opened in Syria.

The National University is located in the Governorate of Hama, south of the city of the same name. The university is the second private institution to open in the Governorate after the Arab Private University for Science and Technology, which opened its doors in July 2009.

NU will start with two faculties, business management & finance and architecture & construction planning. Three new faculties will be opened in the coming years to teach IT engineering, food industries and health science. When the entire facility, which spreads over 200,000 sqm, is completed, NU will accommodate up to 3,000 students. The investment cost of the project was not disclosed.

NU is an investment by more than 125 investors from Hama. Private universities were allowed to set up in Syria in August 2001.

Government Cancels Deal for Private Sector Management of State-Owned Cement Plant
29 August 2010

Altoun Group has withdrawn from the contract it had won earlier this year to invest in, and develop, a state-owned cement plant.
In a letter sent to the Ministry of Industry, Altoun justified its decision by the fact that the Government had not given it the formal go ahead to begin works months after the signing of the contract. Syria’s cement market is growing on the back of strong investment in the real estate market by local and regional investors. Two large private sector plants are under construction, the first by France’s Lafarge and the second, Al-Badia Cement, by Italcementi in joint-venture with Syrian and Saudi investors.

Syrian-US Trade Reaches USD 440 Million in Six Months to June

Bilateral trade between Syria and the US reached USD 440.5 million in the first six months of this year as Syrian exports reached a 19-year high, thanks to an increase in the sale of oil derivatives.

The spiritual leader of Shas, one of the parties within Israel’s governing coalition, called on God to strike down all Palestinians on the eve of direct talks between the Israeli and Palestinian governments.

Egyptian dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim endorsed Gamal Mubarak’s right to run for the Egypt’s presidency.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned that he would pull out of peace talks if Israeli settlement construction resumed.

Syria-Hezbollah would unite vs. Israel
By Jack Khoury and The Associated Press, 2010-08-30

Kuwait’s al-Rai daily says Lebanon-based group, Syrian army have created a joint military command, dividing potential war fronts.

The Lebanon-based Shi’ite militant group Hezbollah and the Syrian army have initiated a significant military cooperation in joint preparation for the possibility of a future armed conflict with Israel, the Kuwaiti daily al-Rai reported on Monday.
Bashar Assad

The report came as Syrian president Bashar Assad urged Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri earlier Monday to support Hezbollah and maintain calm in the divided country.

Speaking with al-Rai Monday, sources have indicated that Hezbollah and Syria have formed a joint headquarters meant to orchestrate the cooperation between the two forces, which is to be commanded by two officers – one from the Syrian military and one from Hezbollah.

The joint command, the report said, would ensure full cooperation in land, sea, and air warfare, as well as take care of the positioning of anti-aircraft missiles in both Lebanon and Syria in order to confront the possibility of an Israeli nuclear assault.

Recent exchanges between the two organizations reportedly included trading information regarding strategic sites within Israel, including airports and other facilities, as well as dividing up the prospective war fronts between themselves.

The report also stated that Damascus and Hezbollah also worked together on the possibility of joint artillery strike against Israel, as well as drawing up a collective plan for the defense of vital Lebanon, Syria sites in case of an Israeli attack.

The two organizations also reportedly shared information gather by Hezbollah following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, including military conclusions and tactics.

The al-Rai report also stated Syria’s contentment with Turkey’s recent announcement that it would ban Israeli warplanes from entering its airspace, since it prevents the possibility of an Israeli airstrike from that direction.

At summer school, Iraqi refugees in Syria try to catch up By Sarah Birke, Christian Science Monitor/ August 30, 2010

Imad Moustapha has written a wonderful review of The Road to Damascus, Elaine Imady’s new book which was featured on Syria Comment, and which inspired spirited debate with Elaine Imady herself.

When Joshua Landis recommended to me Elaine Imady’s book, I wasn’t sure that I had time for it. I had a large backload of books on my desk …. Now that I have read the book I realize how far from getting it right I was. …

Damascus Stock Market is up 52.5% YTS.  3rd best performing after Mongolia and Srilanka’s, which were up about 65% YTD.

Investments in Syria’s Industrial Cities Increased Sharply over the Last 12 Months (Syria Report)

The combined value of the investments in Syria’s industrial cities reached SYP 441.7 billion at the end of the first half of this year or an annual increase of 70 percent. Read

“The Syrian Colony, Washington Street,” by W. Bengough, depicts a turn-of-the-century street scene This is not what the lower west side of Manhattan would look like if the much-debated Islamic community center were built two blocks from the World Trade Center site. This is what it looked like decades before the World Trade Center was even envisioned. This is its heritage. not far from the focus of the current debate over an Islamic center.

To be clear: this neighborhood, called Little Syria, was south of what would become the trade center site, while the Islamic center would be to the north. And Muslims, chiefly from Palestine, made up perhaps 5 percent of its population. The Syrians and Lebanese in the neighborhood were mostly Christian.

But it is worth recalling the old sights and sounds and smells of Washington Street as a reminder that in New York — a city as densely layered as baklava — no one has a definitive claim on any part of town, and history can turn up some unexpected people in surprising places.

بشار الاسد بعد عقد: اقتصاد السوق..لكن بأي ثمن؟

داماسكوس بيرو

Salam Kawakibi, Senior Researcher for the Arab Reform Initiative has two new articles that are excellent and worth the read. The review of the history of private media is particularly well researched. The Private Media in Syria –And — Internet or “Enter Not” the Syrian Experience

Syria sex trade uncovered
Saturday, August 28 ABC News Video
A well done and heart breaking video story – a must see. Iraq – What a mess and the US is declaring victory.

Tony Karon has an excellent piece, “Two Minutes to Midnight? Cutting Through the Media’s Bogus Bomb-Iran Debate,” on Tom Dispatch. Here is a good quote from David Kay that he uses:

Israel is engaged in psychological warfare with the Obama administration — and it only partly concerns Iran… [B]eyond Iran, of probably greater importance to the current Israeli government is avoiding the Obama administration pushing it into a choice between settlements and territorial arrangements with the Palestinians that it is unwilling to make and permanent damage to its relationship with the U.S. Hyping the Iranian nuclear program and the need for early military action is a nice bargaining counter… if the U.S. wants to avoid an imminent Israeli strike, it must make concessions to Israel on the Palestinian issues.

Despite Israeli protests, Russia won’t halt arms sale to Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper

The agreement in question is for P-800 Yakhont missiles, a highly accurate Russian weapon with a 300-kilometer range capable of carrying a warhead of up to 200 kilograms.

Jack Matlock has begun to blog. He was ambassador to Russia and served on the NSC under Reagan. He weighs in on Goldberg:

Iran, even with nuclear weapons, does not pose an existential threat to Israel, as fanatics claim.  Iran’s leaders, though unprincipled hoodlums, are not suicidal and Israel’s reported hundred or so nuclear weapons are sufficient to pose an existential threat to Iran.

I do not believe that Bibi Netanyahu is as deranged on this issue as Jeffrey Goldberg pictures him. He is a master manipulator, and I believe that he and his Likud-minded colleagues are using the issue to distract attention from Israeli policies that are making the peace process impossible: the continuation of settlement activity in the West Bank and the illegal isolation of the Gaza strip.  These are policies that make a true settlement with the Palestinians impossible. They are policies that empower Iranian diplomacy in the area, even in Arab countries  which traditionally fear Iranian influence.

The most serious existential threat to a Jewish state in Palestine comes from the policies of the existing Israeli government. All the bru-ha-ha about an alleged “existential threat” from Iran is most likely designed to deflect U.S. and world attention from that fundamental fact.

Hamas, the I.R.A. and Us
By ALI ABUNIMAH, August 28, 2010, in the New York Times

… Both the Irish and Middle Eastern conflicts figure prominently in American domestic politics — yet both have played out in very different ways. The United States allowed the Irish-American lobby to help steer policy toward the weaker side: the Irish government in Dublin and Sinn Fein and other nationalist parties in the north. At times, the United States put intense pressure on the British government, leveling the field so that negotiations could result in an agreement with broad support. By contrast, the American government let the Israel lobby shift the balance of United States support toward the stronger of the two parties: Israel….

Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman says settlement building will restart in September.

Israel is planning to attack Hezbollah arms depots in Syria – Haaretz

Israel is planning to attack Hezbollah arms depots and weapons manufacturing plants in Syria, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai reported on Saturday. The report is based on Western sources who asserted that Israel has increased its military force level along the northern border in the Golan Heights and Mount Dov areas.

US Threatens Turkish Firms Over Business With Iran: Report
2010-08-20 12:42:26.751 GMT

Istanbul (dpa) — The United States has warned Turkey of possible sanctions against Turkish firms doing an increasing amount of business with Iran, … The warning comes at a time of strongly expanding economic ties between Turkey and Iran, and after Turkey had voted against the UN Security Council resolution in June on new sanctions against Tehran.Turkish Minister of State Hayati Yazici was cited as saying that Turkey aims to achieve a trade volume with Iran in the coming year to 20 billion dollars. Last year’s trade volume was 5.5 billion dollars.Among other steps, the countries plan to double, to four, the number of customs control points on their joint border.

Republicans reject Obama’s Turkey envoy -  The Cable:

“…The nomination of Frank Ricciardone to be the next U.S. ambassador to Turkey is being held up in the Senate and the GOP has no intention of allowing a vote on the nomination any time soon.

A spokesperson for Sen. Sam Brownback, R-KS, confirmed to The Cable that his office has placed a hold on the nomination, which was reported out favorably by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month. Brownback is preparing a letter now to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton explaining the reasons for his objections.

Brownback’s office declined to specify the contents of the letter, but multiple GOP senate aides from other offices said that there was widespread support throughout the caucus for Brownback’s position and that there was nothing specific the administration could do to convince Ricciardone’s detractors to allow his nomination to proceed. If Brownback did release his hold, it’s likely another one would surface soon after. “He’s just the wrong guy for this sensitive post at this time and the hope is that the administration will recognize that he won’t be confirmed this year and nominate someone better,” said one senior GOP aide close to the issue…”

The Caspian Sea: China’s Silk Road Strategy Converges with Damascus
By Christina Lin

The Caspian region is becoming enmeshed in a web of overlapping political, military, trade and energy interests of countries extending from Asia, to the Middle East, to Russia, to Europe. Given the rising instability of Middle East energy supplies, the Caspian basin has emerged in prominence as an alternative resource for the world’s growing energy consumers. It is estimated that the Caspian Sea is home to the world’s largest reservoir for oil and natural gas after the Persian Gulf and Russia [1]. Historically, Russia had a monopoly of influence in the region during the Soviet era, but after 1991 the United States began making inroads into the region to reduce Russia’s influence over the newly formed independent states [2]. In recent years, both China and the European Union have stepped up their presence and have become active players in the region. Other new players albeit smaller but with increasing footprints include countries such as India, Japan and South Korea. Of the various players, China has the fastest growing presence in the region—driven by its voracious energy appetite but also enabled by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) framework. As China embarks on its “look west” development Silk Road Strategy, Syria’s “look east” policy appears to be converging with Chinese interests at the Caspian Sea. The interplay of China’s growing footprint in the Caspian region via its modern Silk Road—reinforced by Syrian President Assad’s nascent “Four Seas Strategy”—will have important implications for the United States, the European Union and other allies. ….

Syria’s Four Seas Strategy

While China is moving west towards the Caspian Sea, Damascus is concurrently moving eastward. Since 2009, Bashar al-Assad has been promoting a “Four Seas Strategy” to turn Damascus into a trade hub among the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea and the Caspian Sea. Aligning Syria with countries that lie on these shores—Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan (The Weekly Middle East Reporter, August 1, 2009)—Assad peddled this idea in May 2009 with Turkey, stating that “Once the economic space between Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran become integrated, we would link the Mediterranean, Caspian, Black Sea, and the [Persian] Gulf … we aren’t just important in the Middle East…Once we link these four seas, we become the compulsory intersection of the whole world in investment, transport and more.” He described Syria’s nexus of “a single, larger perimeter [with Turkey, Iran and Russia]…we’re talking about the center of the world” [17]. Syria can thus act as a means of access for EU countries to markets in the Arab world and western Asian countries [18]. Assad discussed this vision with Medvedev in May this year, and in August 2009 he received Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s blessing when he presented this strategy [19].

To this end, Assad is taking steps to expand the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) to pipe gas from Egypt and Iraq via Syria, and connecting with Nabucco pipelines to Turkey onto Europe.

AGP currently links Egypt with Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and a new 62 km link between Syria and Turkey was signed in 2009 to be completed in 2011 (Forward Magazine, February 2010). This would provide a much-demanded supply of gas to northern Syria, and as gas becomes available form other sources (primarily Iraq), it will ultimately serve as a supply route to Turkey and the EU. Syria’s long-term aim is to be a transit state for Egypt, Iraq, Iran and Azerbaijan (Eurasia Review, June 29). In 2009 Assad visited Azerbaijan—the first Syrian president to visit since Azeri independence in 1991—and signed 19 cooperation agreements and MOUs on economic, political and commercial fields. This included a deal for Azerbaijan to export 1.5 bcm of gas annually to Syria via Turkey in mid 2011 (World Bulletin, July 2; The Turkish weekly, June 29). It is also eyeing a role in the Nabucco gas pipeline project, while Russia’s Gazprom considers joining the Arab Gas Pipeline that will feed gas from Egypt, Iraq, and Azerbaijan into Nabucco (Pipeline International, May 12). Another Russian company, Stoytransgaz, has been involved in the construction of the first two stages of the AGP, building a gas processing plant in central Syria and another 75km south of Al-Rakka (World Bulletin, July 2; The Turkish Weekly, June 29).

Implications

China’s Silk Road Strategy is linking up with Syria’s look east policy at the Caspian region. The region is a key source for feeding various pipeline projects: Azeri gas to the first stage of the Nabucco pipeline to Europe, which will eventually connect with the AGP to the Middle East; Turkmen and Kazakh gas via the Central Asia-China Pipeline and the Kazakhstan-China Pipeline to China; and Turkmen gas to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India via the TAPI pipeline to South Asia. Concurrently, a new Eurasian regional security architecture based on energy security appears to be emerging, with Turkey, Syria and Iran in the Four Seas Strategy to connect with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In 2007 an Iranian Fars News Agency article, entitled “Inevitable Iran-Turkey-Syria-Russia Alliance,” discussed how this “union of four” would challenge U.S. policies in the Middle East (Fars News Agency, November 5, 2007). Likewise, Russia and China may be taking steps to use the SCO to build a new regional security architecture that reinforces each other’s territorial integrity while retrenching Western influences [20]. As Russia is steadily increasing its Black Sea Fleet (Reuters, July 12; Christian Science Monitor, May 19), gaining a foothold in the Mediterranean via the Syrian port Tartus and forming a Black Sea military alliance with Turkey and Ukraine to be signed in August 2010 (RIA Novosti, June 28; Vestinik Kavkaza, June 29; World Security Network, July 7), China is increasing its footprint in the Caspian region via the SCO and Silk Road of pipelines, rail and highways [21]. Once again, there appears to be a new “great game” around the Caspian region and the Greater Middle East.

Islamophobia as the New Antisemitism <http://www.jeremiahhaber.com/2010/08/islamophobia-as-new-antisemitism.html>

Daniel Luban has written a timely and well-researched article <http://www.tabletmag.com/news-and-politics/43069/the-new-anti-semitism-2/>  in Tablet  on what he calls, the “New Antisemitism,” the anti-Islamic bigotry that is on the rise in the United States. Using the term “New Antisemitism” to describe this bigotry is much more appropriate than using it to describe anti-Zionism or anti-Israelism;

The American Mideast Leadership Program is in full swing, and so are the blogs. Here is a  blog about some of the students’ experiences so far.

Discussion of this poll is contained in an excellent piece about Israel’s desecration of Muslim graveyards. No coincidence that the world’s most popular leaders are the most belligerent towards the US and Israel: http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2010/08/why-is-israel-afraid-of-our-cemeteries/ If some politicians and intellectuals in the West still think of a peace process that isolates Hamas and Iran, or divides the region’s resistance groups, then they are wasting their time. The pulse of the people in the Middle East has overtaken them and is heading in a different direction.

Max Blumenthal writes:

A survey conducted recently by Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland presents a window on the new reality in the Middle East for the benefit of those on the other side of the Atlantic who have failed miserably to understand the aspirations, strength and will of the people of this region. Telhami’s poll indicated that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan tops the “new real world order” popularity stakes with 20% of the votes, followed by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez with 13%; close behind Chavez with 12% is America’s current bête noir, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. What was described as particularly bad news for the White House is that 77% of those surveyed believe that Iran has the right to possess nuclear energy and 57% of them consider that a nuclear Iran would be better for the Middle East. Israel, remember, stands unopposed at the moment as a nuclear power in the region.

Discussion of this poll is contained in an excellent piece about Israel’s desecration of Muslim graveyards. No coincidence that the world’s most popular leaders are the most belligerent towards the US and Israel: http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2010/08/why-is-israel-afraid-of-our-cemeteries/
If some politicians and intellectuals in the West still think of a peace process that isolates Hamas and Iran, or divides the region’s resistance groups, then they are wasting their time. The pulse of the people in the Middle East has overtaken them and is heading in a different direction.

Ignatius in the WaPo tries to be positive about the renewed Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. Steven Walt, “Road to Nowhere” feels no obligation to make such a bow.

Ignatius in the WaPo:  “… It’s a classic piece of diplomacy: One side is responding to one letter of invitation; the other is responding to a subtly different request. It’s a finesse that has succeeded in getting both to the table, but it also highlights the huge differences that exist between the two sides — and could scuttle the talks.

The Obama administration is also finessing the question of whether the moratorium on Israeli settlement-building, which is set to expire in late September, will be extended. Administration officials had hoped Netanyahu he would agree to an extension as a confidence-building measure before the talks started. But he hasn’t given any formal assurance. Now, American officials are evidently hoping that once talks are rolling, the Israeli prime minister won’t want to blow them up by resuming settlement activity — and won’t want the political onus of being seen as having undermined the U.S.-led peace effort.

The Arab side has feared that Netanyahu would drag out negotiations without delivering major concessions. In a nod to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Friday’s announcement said there would be a one-year time limit on the talks.

After opening meetings in Washington on Sept. 1 and 2, U.S. officials plan to move the talks to a venue where the parties can bargain without intrusion. Camp David in Maryland and the Wye Plantation on the Eastern Shore have provided such hideaway meeting places in the past. This time U.S. officials have looked at a range of sites, from White Oak in Florida to retreats in the Middleburg area of Virginia. The final location hasn’t been set, but senior officials favor a spot that’s relatively close to Washington.

The opening of direct Israeli-Palestinian peace talks will be a milestone for President Obama, who came to office with high hopes that he could achieve a breakthrough but quickly discovered the pitfalls of peacemaking. It’s the culmination of a process that included unusual outreach to the Arab world, including his speech in Cairo last year. It also follows the withdrawal of the last official U.S. combat troops from Iraq and Obama’s defense of the right of Muslims to build a mosque in the neighborhood of “ground zero” in lower Manhattan — all steps aimed in part at engaging Arab and Muslim critics of the U.S.

From the first, the administration has been divided over the question of whether the talks should be framed by an opening statement of principles (as the Arabs wanted) or be open-ended (as the Israelis insisted). In the end, they appear to have had it both ways.

But if it was this hard to get people to agree to come to the table, that surely doesn’t bode well for the larger issues that need to be resolved.”

Doors Start to Open to Activists in Syria
2010-08-28
By KAREEM FAHIM

ALEPPO, Syria — For five years, Chavia Ali’s attempts to start a disability rights group were thwarted — by prejudice, a lack of money and the Syrian government’s stranglehold on civic life. The government gave her a license, but prevented the group from meeting because of what Ms. Ali believes was a whisper campaign against her, a Kurd with a growing profile.

Chavia Ali has helped Zahra Sheikhi of the village of Ayn al-Arab, who is blind, become more confident. Ms. Sheikhi has learned to play the tanbour and hopes to move away from home.

Then everything changed.

Last year, Ms. Ali was told that a third of her budget would be paid by a group led by Asma al-Assad, the wife of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. Now Ms. Ali, 29, is everywhere, giving television interviews, speaking at ministry conferences and having her picture taken with the first lady.

The reversal of her group’s fortunes is part of an overture that government officials have described as a new embrace of civil society.

But the embrace is complicated. Even as doors have opened for a few people, like Ms. Ali, they have shut with increasing frequency on activists demanding greater political rights, according to human rights lawyers here.

Aron Lund

The Syria Muslim Botherhood: Leadership Transition from Bayanouni to Shaqfa
By Aron Lund
Syria Comment, Aug. 21, 2010

I saw the note about the Muslim Brotherhood in your latest blog post. However, what’s really worth pointing out — it’s mentioned briefly in the Khaleej article — is the fact that they’ve elected a new general inspector and top leadership. Ali Sadreddin el-Bayanouni held the post for 14 years, but has now, or so it seems, gracefully stepped aside. I interviewed him in London last year, and he told me he wouldn’t run for a new term since that was not allowed constitutionally, and indeed it seems he stuck to his word. That deserves some recognition, I think, considering how rare it is to see Syrian opposition parties (not to mention ruling parties) change their leaders at mandated intervals. I can think only of Riad el-Turks SCP/SDPP having done so before, but I hope it catches on. The opposition’s calls for democracy become rather more credible if they’re actually practicing democracy in their own organizations…

Mohammed Riad Shaqfa

On the other hand, things may not be as settled as they appear. El-Quds el-Arabi [Aug 2] reported that the new GI, Mohammed Riad Shaqfa is backed by a hawkish faction of “war veterans”, centered around his deputy, one Farouq Teifour from Hama. Everyone they name in the new leadership is from Hama, interestingly enough, since Bayanouni was said to be backed by an Aleppo faction, and there was a three-way faultline between Damascus-Aleppo-Hama in the group during the 70s. On the other hand, both Shaqfa and Bayanouni deny any sort of internal “coup” in el-Sharq el-Awsat [Aug 8] and appear to try to minimize differences.

Be that as it may, it would be a shame if it’s true that Bayanouni’s line has lost influence. He deserves a lot of credit for having spent his time as GI pushing for moderation of their sectarian message and trying to find common ground with both the secular opposition and with the regime. Sadly, the regime did absolutely nothing to encourage this, effectively slapping Bayanouni in the face when he gambled on reconciliation in Spring 2009 by “suspending opposition activity” over the Gaza war and ditching Abdelhalim Khaddam.

el-Quds el-Arabi claims that the “suspension” communique and the regime’s cold shoulder response in 2009 was the final straw that led to a “hawkish” counter-faction taking over. If that’s true (again, I don’t know, and I hope not), this has been amazingly poorly played by Assad — actively burning bridges to people with influence in the conservative Sunni majority might comfort the most isolationist and hardcore elements of the regime, but it’s certainly not what Syria needs. The country will never get safely past the 80s unless there’s some form of public reconciliation involving both the regime and the MB.

Aron Lund,
Sweden

Aron writes:

I’m a Swedish freelance writer, mostly on Middle Eastern issues, with a special fascination for Syria. I spent much of 2005 studying Arabic at Damascus U, and really learned to love the country. Hope to be able to go back for a longer stay some time!

My book (the one I interviewed you for) is being published next month. It’s called Drömmen om Damascus (The Dream of Damascus), and it is published by SILC Förlag. As far as I can tell it’s the first book on Syrian politics in Swedish ever, so it’s about time… It’s intended to be sort of a non-specialist introduction to Syrian politics, focusing on how Hafez constructed the modern state, on Bashar’s first decade, the rise and fall of the Damascus Declaration, and on the various opposition movements. I’ve been interviewing opposition leaders in- & outside of the country for the past two years, incl. people like Khaddam, Bayanouni, Turk, Seif, Abdelazim, and many others.

Aron added in a note:

I just want to underline again that this is newspaper speculation. I’m not privy to their internal politics, and I personally don’t know which version is true. Unfortunately I think there’s good reason to suspect that el-Quds el-A has it about right, but that’s just guessing from what I’ve heard and read.

Further information on Bayanouni (by Landis)

Bayanouni and Khaddam

Ali Sadreddine Bayanouni (علي صدر الدين اليانوني) was born in 1938 in Aleppo and brought up in a religious family, where his father and grandfather were both well known Muslim scholars. He joined the Muslim Brotherhood while in secondary school, in 1954, and went on to receive training as a lawyer. After spending time in prison, he emerged to become the deputy leader of the Brotherhood in 1977. He left Syria two years later and eventually settled in Jordan, where he remained for twenty years. Britain accepted him as a political refugee in 2000, after the Jordanian authorities requested he leave the country. In 2005, he joined with secular leaders of the Syrian opposition to call for elections and freedom in Syria in what was called the Damascus Declaration. In March 2006 he joined Abdel Halim Khaddam in forming the National Salvation Front in an attempt to unite with defectors of the Syrian Baath Party, as well as the secular opposition. The stated principle upon which all elements of the opposition seemed to agree was the need for elections and pluralism in Syria. This was new. Shortly after the Bush administration in the United States was replaced by President Obama’s, which did not place such heavy emphasis on the “Freedom Agenda” but instead called for engagement with Syria, Bayanouni broke with Abdel Halim Khaddam and the NSF was effectively dissolved.

I have been told by reliable sources that Khaddam’s daughter-in-law traveled to Syria this spring to see if a possible pardon could be arranged for her father-in-law and extended family. Her efforts were in vain. Some 22 members of the Khaddam extended family were required to leave Syria and lost their property following Abdel Halim’s Khaddam’s announcement in 2005 that he expected the downfall of the Syrian regime in six months and would work to promote that end by leading Syria’s opposition from France.

For further reading on Bayanouni read this 2006 article by Gary C. Gambill and this interview by Mahan Abedin in 2005. Also see my post about the Khaddam – Bayanouni link up here and about Bayanouni’s changing language on the Alawites, here. Also see Anthony Shadid’s 2005 Washington Post article here.

I have returned from Vermont and having no internet. I thank Alex for helping keep SC hobbling along while I was off line. Here are a few articles of interest that appeared over the last two weeks. Best, Joshua

SYRIAN ECONOMY

Iraq to Allow Iranian Gas Pipeline to Syria, VOA News 12 August 2010

Iraq says it has agreed to allow its neighbor, Iran, to build a natural gas pipeline to Syria through Iraqi territory.

The Economist’s latest Business summary of the MENA states includes this happy quote. – (See the entire summary copied below)

Aside from Qatar, the only country to improve it overall rating in the region was Syria, which has moved up over the past year to B from CCC. Syria ran into difficulties with its external debt in the 1990s and was obliged to restructure its loans from the World Bank. More recently it signed a deal in 2005 to reschedule about US$13bn in debts to Russia (much of which was written off). Consequently Syria now has a relatively small burden of external debt, and ac debt-service ratio of only 1%.The economy is showing robust rates of growth, and the role of the private sector is increasing thanks to recent structural reforms….

Is Syria the Next Hot Market? Watch this report by Lara Setrakian

Poverty in Syria is projected to reach 40% of population by 2015. See article at Syria Steps in Arabic.

Al-Hayat reports on a major corruption case

سورية تعلن اكتشاف فساد بقيمة 104 ملايين دولار خلال 19 شهراً

Syrians dissatisfied, survey shows
August 19, 2010|By Meris Lutz, Los Angeles Times

A survey conducted in secret because of a ban finds most of more than 1,000 respondents are unhappy with political and economic conditions and want emergency rule to end.

A survey of Syrians, conducted in secret because of government prohibitions, shows strong dissatisfaction with prevailing political and economic conditions. Though that may not be a surprise, the fact that any kind of opinion poll could be conducted in Syria, was certainly an eye-opener, the study’s authors say.

Syrian Muslim Brotherhood opposition activity still on hold officially, with internal discussions on dissolving the movement!

LEBANON

Elias Muhanna (QifaNabki) flagged this inteview with Robert Baer in NowLebanon: (Via FLC)

How did Iran’s role evolve in Lebanon over the last decade?

Baer: In 1982, the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] arrived in Lebanon with the express purpose of driving out the Americans and the French. Having forced them to withdraw their forces, Iran consciously turned its energy to driving out the Israelis. Currently, Iran is supporting Hezbollah’s shift to becoming a force for stability. Iran intends to prove that it is not only a revolutionary, anti-colonialist force but also one that can govern – or, in Hezbollah’s case, a backer of a local force that can govern.

You say in your book that Iran was able to win the hearts of the Lebanese and Palestinian people by adopting national causes they can relate to, i.e. the struggle against Israeli occupation. Did the end of Israeli occupation over Lebanon weaken the Iranian argument of legitimacy?

Baer: Yes, the Iranians have a reduced role in Lebanon now that the war is more or less over. But the point remains the vast majority of the people in the Middle East look at Israel as an occupying military power, and the irreducible fact is that Iran (and Hezbollah) took it on and won. Samson and Goliath; that distinction will serve Iran for a long time.

Do you believe that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s visit to Lebanon with Saudi King Abdullah a few weeks ago is an indicator of Saudi’s attempt to curb Iran’s power over Lebanon? How successful was that?

Baer: The great divide in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia and Iran. If Saudi Arabia’s influence in Lebanon were to completely vanish, it would be a great loss. What Saudi Arabia is trying to do now is bring Syria back into its fold, counting on [it] for helping with Lebanon. Without Syria, Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a chance in Lebanon.

How far would such an alliance go? Is it threatening for Hezbollah?

Baer: Syria will never abandon Hezbollah. The Party of God is an integral piece of its armature of military defense, and no amount of Saudi money will change this reality.

In your book you spoke at length about Hezbollah military commander Imad Mugniyah, describing him as “freelancer,” someone Iran could not completely rely on. What type of relations did Iran maintain with Mugniyah before his death? What about his role within Hezbollah?

Baer: Mugniyah was a fighter. He bridled at Iranian caution and wanted to carry the war to the West Bank and Gaza – and even Western Europe. At the same time he was considered untouchable in Tehran, an icon of the Islamic Resistance.

What is your take on his assassination in Syria in 2008?

Baer: I’ve heard all the theories, but in all honesty I don’t have an answer.

How do you view accusations of the possible involvement of Hezbollah members in the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri?

Baer: Let’s wait until the evidence comes out.

Could party members be involved without the knowledge of Hezbollah or Iran?

Baer: I’ve been in and out of Lebanon for 25 years, and I have to admit there’s no better country in the world for making and hiding conspiracies. I can make a convincing case that Arafat assassinated President Bachir Gemayel [in 1982 through the Syrian Social Nationalist Party], but most people would scoff at the idea. Sometimes we never get answers.

Do you think that the argument of Hezbollah’s possible involvement in the Hariri assassination would serve Israel’s objectives? How would this translate across the Middle East?

Baer: I don’t see a clear case that Hariri’s assassination served anyone’s interests, neither Syria’s nor Israel’s. Both countries need a stable Lebanon, with a strong central government. Taking the decision to assassinate Hariri must have involved an extraordinary set of circumstances – ones I can only speculate on.”

Steven Heydemann has a smart assessment at the Channel: “The real deal for Lebanon.” He explains why a Saudi-Syrian-Hizb deal to keep Hariri in power and preserve Lebanon’s calm and economic growth as a winner for the US.

Israel’s Hidden Hands in Lebanon:
Who Killed Hariri?
By ESAM AL-AMIN in Counter Punch
Monday, August 16, 2010

FT [Reg]: Lebanese hopes for tourism bounty dented
2010-08-16

This year’s tourist season in Lebanon has been even more hyped than most. Fadi Abboud, the tourism minister, predicted a 20 per cent increase on last year’s nearly 2m visitors, and pitched this summer as “probably the best in our history”. …

Lebanon Grants Palestinians Work Rights: Lebanon’s Parliament passed a law allowing the country’s Palestinian refugees the right to work in the same professions as other foreigners.

MORE SYRIA ECONOMY

Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Middle East
Business Middle East

The world economy is well into recovery, albeit with some developed economies looking like they might slip back into recession (not our core forecast, however). The global financial system has received a severe battering, and analysis of the various risks within markets remains as important as ever. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Risk Ratings Review provides such information for 120 countries, using a rating system from AAA to D. Included in these monthly reviews are assessments of banking sector risk, currency risk, and sovereign risk, which feed into a rating for overall country risk. Also included are political and economic structure risk ratings, which inform the other assessments. Ratings for the MENA states vary considerably, with the Gulf Arab states and Israel figuring among the top-ranked countries, while the likes of Sudan, Iraq and Yemen are in the bottom cluster.

PageExcerpt:

The MENA region in general weathered the recession reasonably well. The main exception was the emirate of Dubai, which has been obliged to restructure about US$23.5bn in debts owed by Dubai World, a government-owned conglomerate with heavy exposure to the real estate sector. Thanks to the support of Abu Dhabi and of the UAE federal government, the Dubai debt crisis has been contained. Nevertheless, we maintain a cautious outlook, and we have kept the UAE’s risk rating at BB, the lowest in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). The ratings of three other GCC member states—Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait—also remain constrained owing to their banking sector risk, stemming from the Saad/Algosaibi defaults (see page 4) and the collapse of a number of Kuwaiti investments. Qatar, by contrast, has moved back up to an overall A rating, the highest in the region, mainly owing to the exceptionally strong position of the state’s finances. Israel has also edged up the ranking as a result of a marginal improvement in banking risk.

At the other end of the scale, Yemen has also seen a significant fall in its ranking, dropping from B to CC in the space of two years. This is in light of the country’s worsening fiscal position, mounting pressures on the local currency and the increased threat to security, with a rebellion in the north, unrest in the south and growing activity by al-Qaida. Yemen has now resorted to seeking financial support from the IMF (see page 3).

Aside from Qatar, the only country to improve it overall rating in the region was Syria, which has moved up over the past year to B from CCC. Syria ran into difficulties with its external debt in the 1990s and was obliged to restructure its loans from the World Bank. More recently it signed a deal in 2005 to reschedule about US$13bn in debts to Russia (much of which was written off). Consequently Syria now has a relatively small burden of external debt, and ac debt-service ratio of only 1%.The economy is showing robust rates of growth, and the role of the private sector is increasing thanks to recent structural reforms.

Other countries to have registered improvements to some of their ratings include Turkey (currency risk moving from B to BB as the economy has emerged swiftly from recession) and Jordan (sovereign risk up to B from CCC following signs that the economy was not as severely impacted by the recession as earlier feared). Algeria’s sovereign risk has slipped to BB from BBB, largely owing to an increase in its fiscal deficit and a worsening of the investment environment.

The countries in the middle of the regional rankings have remained relatively stable in our risk assessment, with Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia all retaining the BB overall rating that they had one year ago. This reflects the relatively effective way in which these countries have dealt with the global recession. In Egypt, for example, real GDP growth has steadily increased since it bottomed out at 4.1% in the second quarter of 2008/09 (July-June fiscal year), reaching 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009/10, and 5.3% over the fiscal year as a whole.
Ranking by risk

Syria: Banks reaching new heights
Oxford Business Group, 18 August 2010

The Syrian banking sector appears to be in rude health, reporting record figures at a time when many banks in the region are still absorbing the impact of the global financial crisis. In July 2010, the Central Bank of Syria released figures showing that bank assets in the country have topped $40bn for the first time.

With banking expanding across a number of business lines, growth levels have outstripped neighbours in the region. Both state-owned and private banks have been performing strongly this year. While the former still dominate the sector, accounting for 74.5% of banking assets ($31.5bn), the most impressive growth has been witnessed among the latter. Indeed, year-on-year (y-o-y) asset growth increased by 29.04% among private banks, with an impressive expansion rate of 5% for the first quarter of 2010 alone. This compares to state-owned bank asset growth of 9.5% and 1.3% for annual and quarterly increase, respectively.

The uptick in private sector banking is welcome news as the government looks to encourage further competition in the sector and broaden the scope of private financing, for both government projects and private enterprise. The central bank signalled its intent in this regard in January 2010 when it increased the ceiling for foreign ownership stakes in local banks from 49% to 60%. The 14 existing private banks in Syria all have foreign participation, although none of this comes from outside the Arab world.

It is expected that the central bank’s new regulation will encourage additional foreign participation in the sector. A number of companies have already expressed an interest in the Syrian market, with particular and persistent attention from Turkish financial institutions. Türkiye İş Bankası, Ziraat Bank, and two state-owned Turkish banks, Halkbank and Vakıfbank, have all been eyeing the Syrian market this year.

However, the high cost of opening a Syrian affiliate is proving to be an obstacle for many foreign entities. Alongside the foreign ownership reform in January, the central bank also introduced a measure raising the minimum capital requirements of affiliates from S£1.5bn ($32.15m) to S£10bn ($214.4m) for conventional banks and from S£5bn ($107.2m) to S£15bn ($321.5m) for Islamic financial institutions.

The move, ostensibly aimed at making local institutions more robust, has made potential investors somewhat wary. Türkiye İş Bankası and Vakıfbank have said that the high capital requirements mean that they are only likely to open representative offices rather than full affiliates. Furthermore, in mid-July the general manager of Halkbank, Hussein Aydin, told the Turkish press that “Damascus was too expensive to invest in,” and that the bank would rather focus on the Balkans.

However, most private sector banks seem to be making healthy profits and all the indicators point to a thriving sector. Indeed, the banking industry has become increasingly aggressive and ambitious, helping to drive the whole Syrian economy forward. The total loan portfolio of the sector, excluding loans made to the central government, increased 14.7% y-o-y to $22.1bn, according to the central bank’s latest statistics.

The majority of this growth was recorded in the private sector, with private conventional banks’ loan portfolios increasing by 33% and private Islamic banks by 64%. This growth has impacted all sectors of the economy. With the exception of wholesale and retail trade, bank financing has increased across all economic activities, with agriculture recording the biggest jump in lending of 59.2% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the same period of the previous year. Mining and manufacturing and building and construction also recorded double-digit growth in bank financing.

Such figures illustrate the growing confidence and ambition of the sector. They are also a reflection of government incentives and regulations to encourage banks to support economic development. For example, in May 2009, the central bank took a decision to encourage lending to the manufacturing sector by reducing banks’ reserve requirements based on increased lending.

Following the success of this measure, a similar regulation governing lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) went into force from July 2010. Under the decision, banks will be offered a discount in their reserve requirements on a sliding scale dependent on increased lending to SMEs up to a discount level of 5% of reserves for a lending ration of more than 45% to SMEs.

Through this combination of government oversight and private sector involvement, the Syrian banking sector is building momentum. With deposits to the sector also increasing dramatically, the financial industry is buoyant. All indicators are moving in the right direction, and while the record peak in assets is currently seen as something of a landmark, it is likely to be soon forgotten as it is surpassed and new heights are reached.

Monday, August 16, 2010 12:40 PM

Link: http://www.counterpunch.com/amin08162010.html

Israel’s Hidden Hands in Lebanon Who Killed Hariri? By ESAM AL-AMIN

“Syria: Luxury Rentals With a Turkish Backstory.”
By Matthew Stevenson’s

Syria, while a rich tourist area, has much of its reconstruction wealth devoted to apartments, which can cost about $2 million. While Syria and its neighboring countries have had their conflicts in the past, this money should go to a transnational rail line to not only increase tourism, but regional trade as well.

ISRAEL

U.S., Israel Build Military Cooperation
Amid Fitful Diplomatic Relations, White House Fosters Defense Ties to Reassure a Pivotal Ally, Advance Mideast Peace
By CHARLES LEVINSON in WSJ

TZEELIM, Israel—While the U.S. and Israeli diplomatic relations weather their choppiest phase in years, behind the scenes, military commanders from the two countries have dramatically stepped up cooperation.

The intensified partnership is part of the Obama administration’s broader policy of boosting military support for American allies in the Mideast amid heightened tensions with Iran and its allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, according to U.S. officials. The Obama administration believes it may also help induce Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions in talks with Palestinians, these officials said.

U.S. military aid to Israel has increased markedly this year. Top-ranking U.S. and Israeli soldiers have shuttled between Tel Aviv and Washington with unusual frequency in recent months. A series of joint military exercises in Israel has included a record number of American troops.

This month, about 200 U.S. Marines joined a battalion of Israeli soldiers for an all-night march through the Negev desert, the culmination of three weeks of joint drills. As dawn approached, they crept up on a mock village, an Israeli military-built recreation of a typical Palestinian hamlet, used for combat training.

Explosions, triggered by pyrotechnics engineers, shook the night. Soldiers from another Israeli unit, playing the role of Arab guerrillas, crouched in the fake village’s narrow allies and empty cinderblock homes. They rattled off rounds of blank ammunition from machine guns at the invading U.S. and Israeli forces.

Behind a dune on the village’s edge, a U.S. Marine company commander conferred with his Israeli counterpart before the two barked orders—the Marine in English, the Israeli in Hebrew—to soldiers scattered behind them. As dawn gave way to the Negev desert’s grinding August heat, the forces battled house-to-house in mock battle, as Israeli and Marine generals watched on from the sidelines.

The exercise was the biggest U.S.-Israeli joint infantry exercise ever, according to officials. By comparison, at the same exercise last year, there were only around 20 U.S. Marines involved. In the fall, there will be an even bigger joint infantry exercise involving tanks and armored vehicles, officials said.

Two joint U.S.-Israel committees, the U.S.-Israel Joint Political Military Group and the Defense Policy Advisory Group, which were established years ago and had fallen into disuse, have been beefed up with senior officials, including Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy, the top-ranking civilian at the Pentagon, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

The military cooperation began to intensify even as diplomatic relations between Washington and Israel frayed. The effort stems from policy directives the White House gave the Pentagon early in Mr. Obama’s presidency to “deepen and expand the quantity and intensity of cooperation to the fullest extent,” according to a senior administration official.

Officials in Washington and Israel continue to say they haven’t ruled out a military strike against Iran amid Tehran’s nuclear standoff with the West. But the new cooperation appears to be part saber-rattling at Iran and part reassuring Israel that the U.S. is fully committed to its security.

The senior U.S. official said President Barack Obama felt the increased military support is necessary to assure Israel’s security against mounting regional threats, including Iran and its allies: Syria, the Gaza-based Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon. “History has shown that Israel is more willing to take risks for peace when it feels it is capable of addressing its security needs,” the official said.

U.S. military aid to Israel reached a high of $2.78 billion in 2010, up from $2.55 billion in 2009. It is slated to jump to $3 billion in 2011. The Obama administration has also requested an additional $205 million to fund a short-range rocket defense shield.

Washington’s stepped-up military support comes amid similar moves to strengthen military ties with America’s Arab allies in the region, including those that don’t maintain ties with Israel.

This week, the Obama administration said it intended to provide new Patriot missile batteries to Kuwait. And Washington is readying a $60 billion sale of advanced F-15 fighter jets and attack helicopters to Saudi Arabia.

Back to Basics on Israel’s Security Needs
Elliott Abrams
Vol. 10, No. 7 19 August 2010 The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

* The letter from President Bush to Prime Minister Sharon of April 14, 2004, was a return to the key elements of U.S. policy since 1967 developed under President Johnson – the idea that there would be no return to the situation before June 1967; that the so-called ‘67 borders were incapable of providing Israel with adequate defense and would change. The Bush letter makes no reference to the ‘67 borders. It refers to “the armistice lines of 1949.”

* President Bush stated U.S. policy in a speech in the Rose Garden on June 24, 2002, where he called for “new Palestinian leadership.” It included the understanding that peace was not going to be made as it had been made with Jordan and Egypt, because Israel and the Palestinians were more deeply intertwined. Security for Israel depended also on what happened inside Palestinian society.

* The “incitement” issue is not trivial or marginal. In the case of Israel and the Palestinians, the location of the border and what is on the other side of that border are equally important. President Bush said that the Palestinians needed institutions of statehood where those who are in charge of education policy are not nursing ancient hatreds. Israel should not back away from the incitement issue because it is a security issue.

* Similarly, those who back away from the idea of defensible borders are making a huge mistake. Presumably they think defensible borders are too much to ask for. But there will be no peace with the ‘67 lines, as has been understood since 1967. Clarity about the fact that those lines will change actually promotes peace. The point is to reflect the reality on the ground and establish the basis for a peace that can last. We need to stick to the basics and what is most basic is security. Click here to read the full article.

Pulse Media Reports

A huge trove of newly declassified documents subpoenaed during a 1962-1964 Senate investigation reveals how Israel’s lobby pitched, promoted, and paid to have content placed in America’s top news magazines with overseas funding. The Atlantic (and many others) received hefty rewards for trumpeting Israel’s most vital – but damaging – PR initiatives across America. The relevant documents are now online.

IRAN

NPR has a good conversation with both Goldberg and Jon Lee Anderson who have major articles on Iran: Jon Lee Anderson’s “After The Crackdown” is in the most-recent issue of The New Yorker, and Jeffrey Goldberg’s “The Point of No Return” is The Atlantic‘ cover story.

“…If someone will ‘do’ Iran, it will be the US, not israel…”
… Says Martin Indyk …In the Atlantic:

“…My interpretation of the facts, for what it’s worth, is a little different:

President Obama came into office determined not to use force against Iran — partly because he faced two other wars in the Middle East, but mostly because he was determined to engage Iran and saber-rattling would have been inconsistent with that approach.

By the end of his first year, however, he reached the conclusion that engagement had failed and that it was time to put force back on the table. In January he began to do so. That’s when Gates traveled to the Gulf and delivered a message from the President to the leaders there: “The President is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

This shift in rhetoric was backed by the deployment of missile defense systems to the Gulf and a bolstering of the U.S. force presence there. The rhetorical shift was made public by NSC Adviser Jim Jones in a speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the spring.

It was also backed by a Pentagon study of the requirements for a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities (foreshadowed in David Sanger’s New York Times’ article about Secretary of Defense Gates’ memo to President Obama). The conclusion of that study was that, in the words of one senior White House official, “The Iranians are not ten feet tall — we can do this.”

And it was backed by what Denis McDonough (the chief of staff of the National Security Council) said to you – that Iran’s nuclear program poses a grave threat to Obama’s vision of a new multipolar world order based in part on the twin pillars of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

The Israelis started to pick up on this shift, approving of the fact that “the Pentagon had done its homework” and noting the change in Obama’s rhetoric. Their focus now shifted to putting salt on Obama’s tail. Hence Defense Minister Barak’s multiple visits to Washington in the last four months.

The Israelis today are more relaxed than your article allows. This is in part because of the shift in Obama’s posture but also because the sanctions are beginning to bite and the Iranians are having real problems with their centrifuges. One of the same generals you quote explained to me at the end of June how far the Iranians were from achieving their objective of a robust breakout capacity.

My interpretation doesn’t change your bottom line that if all these efforts fail and Obama doesn’t take action then the Israelis likely will. But it does lower the odds of Israeli action in the next year substantially below your “better than 50 percent” estimate. Indeed, I would argue that, if current trends continue, it’s actually more likely that the United States will bomb Iran than Israel. …”

Written by Camille Alexandre Otrakji

Syrian President Bashar Assad warned on Sunday “the prospects of war and confrontation are increasing”. The President was marking the 65th anniversary of the creation of the Syrian army.

“Syria reiterates its willingness in the just peace and consolidating bases of security and stability in this vital region of the world … and this will not be realized except by the restoration of the whole usurped rights according to the relevant international resolutions … the first factor of peace is preserving dignity, sovereignty and not abandoning any bit of soil or drop of water”

Relevant international resolutions, dignity and sovereignty were at stake today as Lebanese and Israeli troops exchanged fire after Israeli soldiers used a crane to remove a tree on the Lebanese side of the border between the two countries in an apparent violation of UN resolution 1701. Israel claimed that the tree was on the Israeli side of the border and that this is not he first time its soldiers uprooted trees along the border in order to improve visibility and accused Lebanon of provoking the fight. Lebanon said the Israelis crossed onto Lebanese soil despite calls from the U.N. and Lebanon to stop. When the Israelis persisted, Lebanese troops opened fire with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades.

The Associated Press later published a photo showing Israeli soldiers removing a tree on the Lebanese side of a security fence along the border.

Later today, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah explained why his fighters were asked to refrain from helping Lebanese army soldiers while they were attacked by Israel’s helicopters, tanks and artillery. Nasrallah told his audience that he knew that had he decided to get involved, some people would have accused him of being a tool in the hands of President Assad who warned on Sunday that the region is going to war, or that they would have accused Hezbollah of trying to escalate the military conflict in order to escape the rumored indictment of Hezballah members in the Hariri tribunal, or accuse the Lebanese resistance of trying to outshine the regular Lebanese army.

Nasrallah later made it clear that next time there is an Israeli attack on the Lebanese army, where his fighters have a presence, he promises that “the resistance will not stay quiet” no matter how others will interpret their involvement.

If the next routine Israeli violation of Lebanese sovereignty does not flare into a full fledged war,  the Hariri assassination’s UN backed tribunal can provide another clear path to war.

For years Syria was portrayed as the prime suspect behind the Hariri assassination. The accusations were part of an intense, long term, campaign by the Bush administration, Israel, Saudi Arabia, France, and other countries to discredit, weaken and isolate Syria.

Recently, those accusations are shifting to Hezbollah. Syrian and Saudi leaders feared that Lebanon’s fragile national unity might not survive the rumored mention of Hezbollah by the UN tribunal and the anticipated escalation in international pressure to dismantle or punish Hezbollah, the kind of pressure that Syria knows so well.

President Assad and King Abdullah, leaders of the two most influential countries in Lebanon, tried during a historical visit to Beirut to ask their Lebanese allies to stay calm no matter what they read in the upcoming UN report.

If the rumors blaming Hezbollah for the Hariri murder did not introduce enough uncertainty, today, Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah accused Israel of the 2005 assassination.

“I accuse the Israeli enemy of the assassination of (former) Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and … I will prove this by unveiling sensitive information at a press conference on Monday”

Earlier last week President Obama made it clear the United States should not be expected to play a constructive role in deescalating tensions in the region. He announced he is renewing a Bush administration measure to freeze the assets of persons who work with Hezbollah militants and “infringe upon” Lebanese stability.

“While there have been some recent positive developments in the Syrian-Lebanese relationship, continuing arms transfers to Hezbollah that include increasingly sophisticated weapons systems serve to undermine Lebanese sovereignty,” Obama said in his message to Congress.

TIME Magazine senior Editor Tony Karon warned:

“The danger posed by the lack of communication channels between the resistance camp and the Israelis explains why British Prime Minister Cameron, a recent guest at the White House, last week went to Ankara to urge Turkey to maintain its ties with Israel and use its ties to the likes of Syria to facilitate communication that could mitigate an outbreak. Turkey has been pilloried in some quarters in the West — and certainly in Israel — for its diplomatic rapprochement with Syria, Iran and Hamas, but Cameron’s appeal was a tacit admission that the continuing Bush-era policy of refusing to engage with the region’s designated radicals has sharply diminished the ability of the U.S. and the European Union to influence events in the Middle East.”

America’s Arab allies are among those disappointed by Washington’s continued hostility towards Syria. Tariq Alhomayed, editor of Saudi Arabia’s largest and most liberal newspaper, Asharq Alawsat wrote an opinion piece yesterday in which he expressed his bewilderment :

“… on the eve of the Saudi monarch’s visit to Syria a US State Department spokesman issued a strange and provocative statement, calling on the Syrian President to listen carefully to what King Abdullah has to say about the Syrian – Iranian relationship. In Damascus, a Saudi official [commenting on this] told me “can this be true…what does Washington want?”

Meanwhile in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that pushing Israel to extend the freeze on its settlement activities in the west bank will lead to the collapse of his coalition government. If  Mr. Netanyahu feels that an extension of a freeze, and not the dismantling, of those settlements is enough to destroy his government, then what exactly is he prepared to offer the Palestinians or Syrians in any upcoming peace negotiations that everyone is trying to start?

Given this unprecedented degree of Israeli “generosity” and American paralysis, will the next Middle East conflict erupt when Israeli troops decide to cut down the next tree in southern Lebanon?

Joshua Landis will be traveling for two weeks. He will leave SC in the capable hands of Alex.

Lebanese PM calms fears over naming Hizbollah in Hariri inquiry
Mitchell Prothero, Foreign Correspondent
July 24. 2010

Hasan Nasrallah has refused to discuss Hizbollah’s response if some of its members are indicted in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri. Wael Hamzeh / EPA

BEIRUT // The potential indictment of Hizbollah members by an international tribunal investigating the 2005 murder of the former prime minister Rafiq Hariri will not cause widespread civil unrest in Lebanon, the current prime minister and son of the slain leader has said.

Saad Hariri, in an interview published yesterday in the daily Al Hayat, also said any named suspects that may be members of Hizbollah will be regarded as rogue elements of the Shia militant group.

Mr Hariri made the statements in an effort to reassure the country that any indictments of Hizbollah members by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon would not lead to a return of sectarian violence between Sunni supporters of the Hariri family and the mostly Shiite supporters of Hizbollah.

The prime minister was said to have informed the Hizbollah leader, Hasan Nasrallah, during a meeting in May that the indictments – expected later this year – would include several members of the Shiite militant group….

“Mr Nasrallah called the indictments “a dangerous plot that is targeting the resistance”.

“We are not at all afraid, nor are we worried. We know how to defend ourselves,” he added.

Mr Nasrallah, who spoke for about an hour and answered several questions, refused to discuss how Hizbollah will react should the indictments be issued….. “As long as the probe does not look into the possibility that Israel is implicated, we believe it is biased,” he said. “Never has the investigation considered the hypothesis that Israel had the means and the motive” to assassinate Hariri…..

Mr Nasrallah used his press conference to imply that the March 14 movement has been duped by the United States and Israel into an overreaction to Hariri’s murder. He called on the movement to re-evaluate its positions now that it seems certain, he said, that Syria will not be directly accused in Hariri’s murder….

Special Tribunal of Lebanon and the Rafiq al-Hariri Investigation

Nick Noe on Elias Muhanna in Mideastwire/ here (via FLC)

“I agree with Qifa Nabki (aka Elias Muhanna) that this is probably the most important speech by HN in the last year – although if there is indeed war in the coming months then I would say HN’s articulation of how they view the coming conflict may have been more important…. But in any case, I would take issue with the key statement by QN
“…There is no desire anywhere — except among certain politicians in the Kata’ib and Lebanese Forces — to use the STL as a battering ram against Syria or its allies in Lebanon.”

You can see Nasrallah’s speech on UTube here.

Here are links to related articles – Washington Post, and al-Arabiyya and al- Jazeera

T_Desco writes:

The sectarian danger presented by the investigation is greater than some people, such as Elias Muhanna, seem to realize: the Special Tribunal for Lebanon indictments will not put pressure only on Saad Hariri. Read the following excerpts which suggest that there is evidence of a connection between the Hariri murder and the other killings.

SPIEGEL (Follath): “And, once again, there was evidence of involvement by the Hezbollah commando unit, just as there has been in each of more than a dozen attacks against prominent Lebanese in the last four years.”

UN 8 (Brammertz): 78. In addition (…) the Commission’s findings suggest that there may be a link between the group claiming responsibility for the Hariri killing and the group that claimed responsibility for the attacks on Samir Kassir, Gebran Tueni and Pierre Gemayel.

81. Communications analysis conducted so far has helped confirm the Commission’s hypothesis that a number of individuals may be relevant to the Hariri case and one or more of the other cases.

UN 10 (Bellemare): “25. The Commission can now confirm, on the basis of available evidence, that a network of individuals acted in concert to carry out the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and that this criminal network, the “Hariri network”, or parts thereof, are linked to some of the other cases within the Commission’s mandate.”

(T_desco’s emphasis)

In short, Shi’ites are seen targeting leaders off all other sects. Will this lead to an additional motive being suggested for these attacks, i.e. 1. revenge on behalf of Syria: 2. stirring up sectarian tensions to ignite a civil war?

-2-
- STL may be adopting a ‘lobster cooking’ strategy (first indicting 3, then 20, then…?), expecting Hizbullah to sit still while the heat is being turned on
- the ‘rogue elements’ theory is obviously absurd
- final indictments could still target leadership
- or, they could point to an  ‘International Hezbollah’ i.e. (Mughniyah)
- or even Revolutionary Guards and Iran.

-3-
- expect new Siddiqs!

- the ‘findings’ will be based on more than just communication analysis
- e.g. the link between phones and ’secret’ commando unit has to be human intelligence
- witnesses could identify the person who bought the 8 phone cards (Ghamlush)
- or the 2 persons who bought the van, etc.

- as a result the indictment will be convincing for March 14, Hariri, the Western media, etc.

Syrian ex-patriot who has just visited Beirut for the first time in a decade writes this:

Aqua Marine

I just got back from a 2 day trip to Beirut. It rocks. We stayed at the Aqua marina in Kaslik and toured the area of solidair and “Al Aswaq.” What a fun and exciting city. The Lebanese are light years ahead of the rest of the region. Beirut has been well restored, with gorgeous buildings.

Damascus is improving but has a huge stock of run down buildings that need a face lift. Damascus has moved to clean up these buildings in certain areas, and individuals have also began to pay attention to the exterior of their buildings. The Old city is beautifully done teaming with tourists. the Government is now expanding its effort from the old city to the new and landscaping its public parks. Syria needs to light a fire under its foreign direct investment, and bring down its birth rate or it may go the way of Egypt.

Another Syrian ex-patriot:

Indeed, I just got back from both Beirut and Damascus and noticed the same thing. Damascus (and Syria in general) is plagued by 40 years of regressive, anti-Western communist minds (though unrelated to Communism).

But Lebanon is a glued-together and a fake nation (I don’t mean this in any derogatory way). The startling differences between The Kaslique and the Ouza3i, for example, are telling and I’m not only talking buildings and beaches.

Lebanon needs a lot of work to succeed. Syria is farther away in that regard.

But I love the Aqua Marina and the surrounding areas. Syria will need many years to reach that level of sophistication.

Have you been Mandaloun Nights in Beirut? OMG!

Here is a line from the following NY Times story: “Turkey may be 15 years behind Europe, but Syria is still 30 years behind Turkey,”…

Syrians are flocking to the Turkish city of Gaziantep for its Western goods, including at the Sanko Park mall.

Syrians’ New Ardor for a Turkey Looking Eastward
By DAN BILEFSKY, July 24, 2010

GAZIANTEP, Turkey — Well-heeled Syrians had already been coming to this ancient industrial city, drawn here by Louis Vuitton purses and storefront signs in Arabic. But local shop owners say Israel’s deadly raid on a Turkish-led flotilla to Gaza in May has solidified an already blossoming friendship between Syria and Turkey, the new hero of the Muslim world.

“People in Syria love Turkey because the country supports the Arab world, and they are fellow Muslims,” Zakria Shavek, 37, a driver for a Syrian transport company based in Gaziantep, said as he deposited a family of newly arrived shoppers from Aleppo, which competes with Damascus for the title of Syria’s largest city and is about a two-hour drive from here. “Our enemy in the world is Israel, so we also like Turkey because our enemy’s enemy is our friend.”

The monthly pilgrimages of tens of thousands of Syrians to this southeastern Turkish city — which intensified after the two countries removed visa requirements last September — are just the latest manifestation of the growing ties between Turkey and Syria, part of the Turkish government’s efforts to reach out to its neighbors by using economic and cultural links to help it become a regional leader.

Turkey’s shift toward the Muslim world — from the recent clash with Israel to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s description of Iran’s nuclear program as peaceful — has prompted concerns in the United States and Europe that Turkey, an important NATO ally, is turning its back on the West.

But in Turkey, where 70 percent of all exports go to Europe, businesspeople insist that the government’s policy of cultivating friendly ties with all neighbors reflects a canny and very Western capitalist impulse to offset dependence on stagnating European markets while cementing Turkey’s position as a vital economic and political bridge between east and west.

Indeed, most Arab states, including Syria, enthusiastically support Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, viewing Turkey as a vital intermediary to Western markets that might otherwise be off limits. At the political level, Turkey’s influence in the Middle East is also deeply enhanced by its strong Western ties — a fact recognized by Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who shocked many in the Turkish capital this month by warning that the latest crisis between Israel and Turkey could undermine Ankara’s role as a mediator in the region.

Only 10 years ago, relations between Syria and Turkey were strained, with Turkey accusing Syria of sheltering Kurdish separatists and Syria lashing out at Turkey over water and territorial disputes. Syrians also harbored historical resentments of Ottoman subjugation, while many secular Turks, defined by the Western orientation of Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, saw Syria as autocratic and backward.

With the recent elimination of border restrictions, however, Turkish exports of everything from tea to textiles to diapers are booming, along with a newfound ardor.

“Today, Arab countries that once resented us want to be like us, even if they are looking to Turks more than we are looking to them,” said Emin Berk, a Turk who is coordinator of the Turkey-Syria Trade Office here.

Trade between Turkey and Syria more than doubled from $795 million in 2006 to $1.6 billion in 2009, and is expected to reach $5 billion in the next three years. Last year the Middle East received nearly 20 percent of Turkey’s exports, about $19.2 billion worth of goods, compared with 12.5 percent in 2004. In Iran, Turkish companies are making products including fertilizer and sanitary products for women. Iran, in turn, is an important source of energy to Turkey.

Here in Gaziantep — whose past is so intertwined with Syria’s that it was part of Aleppo Province during the Ottoman Empire — the signs of the new honeymoon between Turkey and Syria are everywhere.

Every Friday, several thousand Syrians descend on the center of town. Lured by bargains and Western brands, most head immediately to the Sanko Park shopping mall, the largest in town, where their lavish shopping sprees have made them coveted customers. In the city’s bazaars, pistachio vendors summon passers-by in Arabic, while Arabic courses for Turkish businessmen are flourishing. Marriages between Turks and Syrians have become more common.

In Syria, meanwhile, where the alliance with secular Turkey represents a move away from its courtship with Iran, Turkey’s blend of conservative Islam and cosmopolitan democracy is increasingly viewed as a model in the younger generation. Turkish soap operas and films are attaining cult status, while “Made in Turkey” labels near the cachet of Paris or Milan.

On a recent day at the gleaming Sanko Park mall, Mays al-Hindawi Bayrak, a chic 27-year-old Syrian who was buying a Pierre Cardin shirt for her Turkish husband, observed that for Syrians, Turkey had become synonymous with European modernity. After Turkey recently lashed out at Israel, she said, her 21-year-old brother told the family he wanted to apply for Turkish citizenship.

“In the past, many Turks thought that all Arab women wear burqas and that all the men drive camels to work,” she said. “Now, we are getting to know each other better.”

Turkish businesspeople here say that regardless of whether the governing party’s politics is driving economics or the other way around, what matters is that the new openness to the east is enhancing the bottom line.

Cengiz Akinal, managing director of Akinal Bella, a large shoe manufacturer, said that the Islamic-inspired politics of the governing Justice and Development Party had helped ease relations with Arabic clients. The company, which exports a majority of its shoes to Europe, increased its exports to Syria by 40 percent last year.

Mr. Akinal, whose ancestors imported leather from Syria during the Ottoman Empire and produced shoes for the sultans, recently shifted part of the company’s manufacturing to Aleppo and Damascus, where monthly wages are about half those of Turkey. But he said Syria was still decades behind Turkey when it came to quality standards and technical know-how.

“Turkey may be 15 years behind Europe, but Syria is still 30 years behind Turkey,” he said.

Indeed, businesspeople say the shift toward the Middle East is forcing them to change the way they do business after decades of trying to cultivate Western European attitudes. Mr. Akinal noted, for example, that negotiations with Arabic corporate clients over price were reminiscent of a Middle Eastern bazaar rather than a boardroom.

“With Europeans, you can have a deal in a half an hour,” he said. “With Syrians, I sometimes spend the whole day bargaining.”

While most people here welcome the Syrian invasion, some Turks complained that the Syrians were pushing up the prices of everything from hotels to designer dresses. Others lamented that Syrians’ religious conservatism was out of place in secular Turkey.

“We are more liberal than they are, and it can sometimes be uncomfortable when the women arrive covered from head to toe and the men leer at you,” said Deniz, a Turkish teenager in ripped jeans and a T-shirt, who declined to give her last name for fear of antagonizing her Syrian boss.

I received this opinion piece by Elie ElHadj and agreed to publish it, although I have edited it for length. I hesitated before agreeing to publish it because the opinions expressed are controversial and stated powerfully; the open discussion of religious topics is often frowned upon in Syria because of the potential for stirring up sectarian hard feelings.  I decided to publish it anyway, because debate is good and because the recent law to ban the niqab has raised the larger issue of how the Syrian government and society should deal with the larger issues of private schools and Islamic education.  I stress that the views expressed in this article do not reflect those of Syria Comment’s editors; although, I recognize that some of its conclusions are shared by many, if not most, Syrians. It is part of an on-going debate. I hope to be able to publish an opinion piece defending the spread of Islamic schools in Syria in the not distant future. (That is a challenge to those readers who will disagree with the views expressed in this article. Joshua Landis)

In a madrasa at the Zahra mosque in suburban Damascus, students in the oldest group, 15 to 17, taking an English language class in addition to religious training. Photo by Jeroen Kramer

Stop Wahhabi Indoctrination of Syrian Youth
By Elie Elhadj, July 25, 2010
for Syria Comment

The Website ALL4SYRIA reported (in Arabic) on July 17, 2010 that private Islamist elementary schools have been proliferating in Syria. The title of the article: Secrets and Background Behind the Decision to Ban the Wearing of the Niqab in Syria’s Schools and Universities Taken by the Office of National Security. The article may be accessed on:

http://all4syria.info/content/view/29490/80/

A Summary of the ALL4SYRIA article
Islamist groups in Syria have succeeded in controlling most private elementary schools (up to sixth grade), estimated to be around 200 schools (presumably in Damascus) with approximately 25% to 30% of all elementary schools enrollment. The article revealed that teachers are all women, don the Niqab (black covering of face and body), and belong to Islamist proselytizing groups, typically led and controlled by women. ALL4SYRIA added that classroom teaching material contravenes Ministry of Education curriculum and textbooks, that young children are instructed to insist that their mothers must wear the Niqab so that they avoid burning in hell’s fire, that large amounts of money have been paid by Islamist organizers to purchase secular private schools from their owners; for example, Dar Al-Faraj, Dar Al-Na’eem, Omar bin Al-Khattab, The Arab Islamic College, Ummat Al-Majd, Al-Yaqzah…).

Significance of the report
Such a development is disconcerting. Syria must be vigilant. At the core of Islamist teaching, just like Wahhabi teaching, is indoctrination and brainwashing in fanaticism. Sunni Islamists, Syria’s included, embrace Wahhabi extremism with all their being. Their speech and actions are akin to being members of a religious cult. If allowed to go unchecked, such a development would cause irreparable damage to Syria’s way of life and to its multi-ethnic multi-religion harmony, including discrimination against and persecution of the country’s many religious minorities and sects, particularly the ruling Alawite minority, which orthodox Muslims regard as heretics.

To appreciate the consequences of Islamist teaching one need not look beyond the Saudi educational curriculum to see its effects on Saudi youth and Muslim youth in Islamist/ Wahhabi sponsored schools elsewhere. While Saudi textbooks might not be seen in Syria’s classrooms, the dogma, dictums, values, attitudes, and beliefs imparted through the words, mannerism, dress, and personal behavior of Islamist teachers would, nonetheless, mold impressionable young children with Arabia’s seventh century culture.

Content of Islamist education
Students in Wahhabi controlled schools are taught to denigrate other religions and Islamic sects, including other Sunnis. Starting with the First grade, children are taught that Jews, Christians, and others are destined to be consumed in hellfire. As the children grow up, the same message is honed more explicitly. Fourth graders are taught to hate the polytheists and infidels. Fifth graders are taught that someone who opposes God, even if he/she were one’s own brother/sister becomes his/her enemy. In Sixth grade, students are taught that Islam bans the mourning of the dead tradition that Shi’ites venerate (Center for Religious Freedom of Freedom House with the Institute for Gulf Affairs, Saudi Arabia’s Curriculum of Intolerance, with Excerpts from Saudi Ministry of Education Textbooks for Islamic Studies, 2006.

To put overall Saudi school curriculum in perspective, it is helpful to describe some of what the older students learn. Eighth graders are taught that building mosques on graves, even by Muslims, is the work of polytheists and unbelievers. In Ninth grade, teenagers are taught in apocalyptic terms that violence against Jews, Christians, and other non-believers is sanctioned by God. Tenth graders are taught that, in law, the life of non-Muslims as well as women is worth a fraction of that of free Muslim men. Eleventh graders are taught that Muslims do not yield to Christians and Jews on a narrow road out of honor and respect (the Prophet reportedly said: “Do not initiate greeting the Jews and Christians, and if you encounter one of them on a road you should force him toward the narrow side” The Six Books, Sahih Muslim, tradition 5661, p. 1064 and Sunan Abi Dawood, Ibid., tradition 5205, p. 1603). Twelfth graders learn that the spread of Islam through jihad is a religious duty, that jihad is the summit of Islam, that through jihad Islam’s banner was raised high, that jihad is one of the most magnificent acts of obedience to God.

Islamists/Wahhabi education emphasizes the belief in predestination.

Outside the classroom, Islamist/Wahhabi propaganda promotes an anti-Western agenda—Westernization results in the loss of Islamic ideals and practices, encourages the introduction of Western political systems, political parties, and parliaments, which interfere with social cohesion and consensus, brings misery and suffering to Muslims, undermines Muslim conduct, leading to mixing of the sexes, opening of nightclubs, discarding of the veil, charging of interest on bank loans, and celebration of non-Islamic holidays such as Christmas, Mother’s Day, and Labor Day. (Madawi Al-Rasheed, A History of Saudi Arabia, Cambridge University Press, 2003, 191).

Islamist/Wahhabi doctrine denounces Arab nationalism and socialism, as atheistic innovation. Abdulaziz Bin Baz, Saudi Arabia’s former grand mufti (1993-1999), called Arab nationalism an atheist jahiliyya (the pre-Islamic age of ignorance and darkness). Ibn Baz described nationalism as “a movement of ignorance whose main purpose is to fight Islam and destroy its teachings and rules” (Ibid. 190). As for the Arab military-ruled republics that since the 1950s have adopted nationalism as a basis for Arab unity and as a political objective, Ibn Baz branded them “the enemies of Islam.” Saudi history textbooks highlight that Arab nationalism is “European in origin, Jewish in motivation . . . [and] represented as a conspiracy promoted by the West and Zionism to undermine the unity of Muslims” (Ibid. 191).

Islamist/Wahhabi education engenders hostility towards all those who hold different religious beliefs or political or national aspirations. Opponents are viciously attacked as kuffars (atheists), orientalists, or agents of the CIA and Mossad, deserving death. Islamist/Wahhabi education is designed to enslave the faithful through superstitions and irrationalities in order to prolong the dictatorship of the coalitions that typically govern Arab countries; namely political families and the ulama class.

What should Syria do?
Syria can take four actions. First, trace and cut off the flow of funds that sustains Islamist groups. The source is most likely to be Syria’s home grown Islamists and Syrians who had worked or are still working in Saudi Arabia and who embraced Saudi Islam plus rich Saudis on a mission to spread the Islamist creed around.

Secondly, proselytizing groups, like other Islamist organizations, must be declared illegal and their financial backers prosecuted.

Thirdly, teachers who deviate from the Ministry of Education’s curriculum must be punished.

Fourthly, promulgate a twenty-first century personal status law befitting a supposedly “secular” country like Syria to replace its current antiquated Shari’a based laws and courts for Muslims and spiritual courts for non-Muslims. A country that claims to be “secular” should become truly secular. Syria’s government appeasement of Islamists is like riding a tiger. The tiger may someday devour the rider.

Summer in Syria: Who should be wearing the Niqab?

Syria: A decade on
Syria, Volume 185 Oxford Business Group

21.07.2010 This month marks the tenth year of Bashar Al Assad’s presidency of Syria, a decade of steady reform which has seen greater economic freedoms extended to several sectors – notably banking and financial services – as part of a transformation from a socialist to a “social market” economy.

Al Assad was sworn in on July 17, 2000 at the age of 34, just over a month after the death of his father, Hafez Al Assad. While the younger Al Assad has presided over a reform process that has delivered sustained growth, recent developments have created new national challenges and exposed older ones that still need to be addressed.

A three-year drought has strained the agricultural sector in the east, and major industries in the north such as textiles were hit hard by the global downturn. Longer-term issues hampering growth are a slow decline in oil production, a delayed reform of state enterprises and high levels of corruption.

Syria’s measures to tackle graft, such as the high-profile arrest last year of Hassan Makhlouf, the former Customs chief, have improved the country’s image, and it climbed 21 places to 126th of the 180 countries surveyed by Transparency International’s 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index.

However, improving the overall competitiveness of the Syrian economy will take time, and it was ranked 94th out of 133 in the World Economic Forum’s 2009-10 “Global Competitiveness Report”, tying for last place among Arab states with Mauritania. Decades of underinvestment in infrastructure need to be addressed, as do outdated business practices and attitudes.

However, the Syrian government has been working hard over the past decade to attract foreign investment, particularly through major laws introduced in 2007 that dealt specifically with the rights and obligations of overseas companies. The laws provided assurances in repatriation of earnings and capital, as well as the import of capital goods, which are seen as prerequisites to attracting foreign direct investment (FDI).

Since the implementation of the laws Syria has jumped to the top of its regional list for FDI, according to a September 2009 report by the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, with net flows rising by 43% in 2008 to $1.3bn.

The government has also worked to use Al Assad’s growing international stature to attract investment from Syria’s large expatriate community. A recent tour of Latin America saw the signing of a $100m trade and development fund agreement with Venezuela, which is home to a large Syrian diaspora. Al Assad’s first tour of Latin America also included visits to Cuba, Argentina and Brazil, the latter of which is home to a population of Syrians numbering between 2m and 3m.

During Al Assad’s two-day visit to the country in late June, five agreements and memos of understanding were signed between Syria and Brazil in various areas of cooperation. Brazil has also expressed its support in establishing a free trade zone between the Southern Common Market and Syria, which would help Latin American countries reach markets in the Middle East. Al Assad also made a stopover in Argentina, where the two countries traded support for Argentina’s claim to the UK’s Falkland Islands and Syria’s claim to the Golan Heights.

In addition, Al Assad’s government hopes to generate investments worth $77bn from the private sector over the next five years, and business practices in Syria have begun to evolve, partly due to support from international partners such as the EU and the UN. Firms have meanwhile benefitted from greater institutional support and backing. Civil society has also started to play an economic role, under the sponsorship of Asma Al Assad, the first lady, with Syria now a regional leader in areas such as microfinance.

Is Israel an asset or a liability? Satloff vs. Freeman
For the full version read here. For a highlights click above on the FP article by
By Josh Rogin Wednesday, July 21, 2010 – Foreign Policy

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Robert Satloff and the Middle East Policy Council’s Chas W. Freeman, Jr., squared off Tuesday at the Nixon Center to debate whether Israel is really a strategic asset or a strategic liability for the United States. Here are some excerpts.

On the overall question of whether America’s relationship with Israel is worth it:

Robert Satloff: My job today is to make the case why Israel and that relationship is a strategic asset. I will go even further. I will argue that Israel and the US-Israel relationship is — both in objective terms and compared to any other relationship we have in the ME — a strategic bonanza for the U.S.: not just an asset, but a downright bargain … I don’t think there’s anyone in this room who would disagree with the contention that there is no country in the Middle East whose people and government are so closely aligned with the U.S. … We share a way of governing, ways of ordering society, ways of viewing the role of liberty in individual rights and ways to defend those ideals. Now, some realists tend to dismiss this as soft stuff with no strategic value. I disagree. The commonality of culture and values is at the heart of national interests.

Chas Freeman: Clearly Israel gets a great deal from us. It’s pretty much taboo in the U.S. to ask what’s in it for Americans; I can’t imagine why. What’s in it and what’s not in it for us to do all these things for Israel? I think we need to begin by recognizing that our relationship with Israel had never been driven by strategic reasoning. It began with President Truman overruling his strategic and military advisors, in deference to political expediency … There’s no reason to doubt the consistent testimony of the architects of major acts of anti-American terrorism on what motivates them to attack us … Some substantial portion of the many lives and the trillions of dollars that have we so far spent in our escalating conflict with the Islamic world must be [measured against] the costs of our relationship with Israel……

On the effect of the peace process:

RS: First, I would argue that a strong Israel with a strong U.S.-Israel relationship at its core has been central to what we now know as the peace process and second, in historical terms, the peace process has been one of the most successful U.S. diplomatic initiatives in the last half century. In the words of one knowledgeable observer, “The peace process has been a vehicle for American influence throughout the broader Middle East region, and has provided an excuse for Arab declarations of friendship with the U.S. even as Americans remain devoted to Israel. In other words, it has helped to eliminate what otherwise might be a zero-sum game.” … Oh, I forgot to mention that observer I mentioned earlier as praising the peace process for eliminating the zero-sum game in the Middle East: Chas Freeman. Thank you, Chas.”

CF: There’s all the time we put into the perpetually ineffectual and basically defunct peace process … I think one of the reasons that there is no support of any kind from the Arab world for George Mitchell’s efforts to recreate or revive a dead peace process is that there’s no confidence in the ability of the U.S. to play a mediating role. We are, in the famous words of one member of the previous peace-making exercise, Israel’s lawyer…..

Obama’s Turnabout
by Aluf Benn, Haaretz, July 21, 2010

President Barack Obama’s campaign of wooing Israel reflects a fundamental about-face in U.S. policy in the Middle East. U.S. priorities have changed: At the top are the intensifying problem of Iran and concerns about the change of leadership in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Under such circumstances, Israel is perceived as a “vital ally,” in the words of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Andrew Shapiro, and not an obstacle to warmer ties between the United States and the Muslim world, as was the view at the start of Obama’s tenure.

The Americans have a supreme interest in the Middle East; it’s an available and inexpensive supply of oil that powers the economies of the United States and its allies. Protecting it depends on preserving “stability,” which relies on totalitarian regimes whose survival depends on the United States. In turn, defending these regimes provides important markets for the U.S. defense industry.

Since taking responsibility for the defense of the Middle East from Britain, and with the announcement of the Eisenhower Doctrine in 1957 following the Suez Crisis, the United States has fought off every element that sought to undermine regional order and threatened the oil supply – from Gamal Abdel Nasser and his Soviet patrons to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden.

Israel has played a varying role in American strategy……

Westerners stage brief animal rights protest in Syria
DAMASCUS, July 22 (Reuters) – Khaled Yacoub Oweis

DAMASCUS July 22 (Reuters) – Pedestrians at a busy thoroughfare in the Syrian capital were stunned on Thursday when two Westerners appeared inside a coop in front of a KFC restaurant to protest the U.S. chain’s treatment of chickens.

The two activists, members of the international People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (Peta) were swiftly rounded up and deported.

Non government-sponsored demonstrations are virtually unheard of in Syria, which has been controlled by the Baath Party since 1963.

A placard on the cage urged a boycott KFC because it said its chickens were “confined, tortured, scalded”.

“We got our message across. KFC has to implement an animal welfare policy in Syria. The way the chickens are bred and transported is very cruel,” said Ashley Fruno, a U.S. national.

“Protests have helped KFC change its policies in Canada, but not elsewhere. Our effort is worldwide,” said Jason Baker, who is from Vancouver.

The two staged similar protests in Cairo and Beirut and Peta is planning one next in Jordan.

The KFC manager at the site declined to comment but one employee confirmed that the chickens are sourced from a local supplier.

The regional KFC franchise is owned by the Kuwaiti conglomerate Al-Kharafi.

Ibrahim Hamidi in al-Hayat (Thanks to mideastwire.com):

“A prominent Syrian source told Al-Hayat that the very important day that Damascus has witnessed and the meetings that were held in it, have clearly shown that the region must draw up its own destiny and build its future with its own hands. The source was quoted as saying: “Things in the region cannot be finalized in one session or overnight. This takes time but the important thing is that the whole process be put on the right track. Syria believes that the situation are working and progressing in an efficient way and in the best interest of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the whole region…”

“Al-Hayat has learned that a private meeting took place between Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’d Hariri and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Damascus in addition to the business lunch that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad held in their honor. The Turkish foreign minister also met with Iyad Allawi in the Turkish embassy in Damascus and visited Al-Sadr in his place of residence in one of Damascus’ hotels. Palestinian sources told Al-Hayat that the Turkish minister had also met in the Syrian capital with Hamas politburo chief Khalid Mish’al….

Michael Young in the National via FLC

“… little has changed in the way Syria views Lebanon from the days when the Syrian army was in the country. For President Bashar Assad, Lebanon is there primarily to serve Damascus’s regional interests, regardless of whether this undermines its sovereignty.

…..Hariri’s recent announcement that Damascus would pursue border demarcation was a red herring. The Syrians will delay all progress in defining the Shebaa boundaries, and have little incentive to clarify borders elsewhere because, as the stronger party, they have imposed a status quo that is generally in their favour.

A defence agreement also has yet to be completed between Lebanon and Syria. That’s not surprising. Mr Assad’s regime continues to send weapons to Hizbollah, defying UN resolutions, and any credible defence agreement would have to address that in a serious way. We shouldn’t hold our breath…..

Syria will also will try to gain politically from possible indictments that may be issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon set up to punish those responsible for Rafiq Hariri’s murder. Syrian mouthpieces in Beirut have urged Saad Hariri to torpedo the tribunal by declaring it politicised……..

The notion that Syria has reconciled itself with a sovereign Lebanon is an illusion. Mr Assad doesn’t have his army in the country anymore, but a Syrian military return could not be ruled out in the aftermath of a devastating war between Hizbollah and Israel.

Such a war, it if occurs and lasts longer than the 2006 conflict, would have repercussions to Syria’s advantage. The damage wrought would discredit the Lebanese state; a conflict would wreck the UN security architecture in south Lebanon; Hizbollah, if it is not defeated outright, and it cannot be, would fight on and come to be viewed in the Arab world, Israel and the West as a major nuisance needing to be brought to heel. Mr Assad could be tempted to use all of this to engineer a Syrian military comeback, arguing that Syria alone can stabilise Lebanon.

Mr Assad lost Lebanon in 2005, and it never went down well with the Syrian leader that he squandered a valuable inheritance his late father had spent years fighting to earn. The Syrians are systematic. In the past year they have co-opted or isolated their Lebanese foes……. Hariri, encouraged by his Saudi Arabian sponsors, has gone along with this, mainly to counterbalance Tehran’s influence. The Lebanese prime minister knows that this complex game may have dire consequences. He is under no illusion about Mr Assad’s intentions, but has swallowed the bitter pill of reconciliation with Damascus to defend himself against his most immediate worry, Hizbollah.”

Al Sharq al Awsat

“Political observers can only admire the way in which Damascus is bringing together its regional political cards, and its proficiency in dealing with the contradictions and conflicting forces [in the region], as well as its ability to overcome crises that seem grave and capable of toppling any regime. The best example of this can be seen in what happened over the past few days. At the same time that dozens of cooperation agreements were being signed during Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s visit [to Damascus] following years of tense relations with Lebanon and the March 14 Alliance, Syria was also holding meetings between Iraqi rivals Iyad Allawi and Muqtada al-Sadr, in what appeared to be western-backed Syrian mediation to help solve the deadlock with regards to the formation of the new government of Iraq, which is a process that has been stalled for months.

Egyptian authorities say smugglers have cut through the underground steel wall meant to prevent entry into Gaza.

“It’s a big failure,” he said of the undertaking. A second Egyptian official also said the wall had been breached in hundreds of places….”

Why Jordan is Occupied by Palestinians
July 22, 2010 The Independent
Robert Fisk

A powerful group of ex-army leaders say their country is being overrun – and they blame King Abdullah

They moan that 86,000 Palestinians have received Jordanian passports unconstitutionally since 2005, that too many Palestinians are now in the Jordanian government, that corruption and a rigid adherence to American-Israeli policies are laying the groundwork for Israel to expel the West Bank Palestinians across the Jordan River. They have no time for the Jordanian-Israeli peace agreement.

Former General Ali Habashneh, Colonel Beni Sahar and Major General Mohamed Jamal Majalli interrupt their beef and chicken and “humous lahme” with expressions of fear and anger about the future of Jordan. Habashneh runs the Jordanian army’s pensions committee and has 140,000 ex-army personnel and their families on his books; his voice is not to be taken lightly by King Abdullah of Jordan and his government. These are the king’s men. But they are fierce nationalists. And they are patriotic enough to have sent an open letter to King Abdullah, expressing their fears that Israeli plans for the West Bank and “a fifth column of collaborators” within Jordan who support US policy in the region – their identity is left dangerously unspecified – may destroy their country.

The Jordanian government, appointed by the king, has shown “extreme weakness”, the letter says, towards Israel and America. “Recent [Jordanian] cabinets… have already begun to implement a covert… political quota system by placing Palestinians – including some who have yet to complete the full legal requirements of citizenship – in key positions at the pinnacle of the state apparatus.” This is the first serious opposition to emerge against King Abdullah since he succeeded his father, Hussein, who died in 1999….

The ex-army officers see a “silent transfer” of Palestinians across the Jordan river…. “We think the people around the king are not bringing up these issues,” one of the men at the table says. “After the Rifai government was established, the head of the senate became Palestinian, the head of the judicial system became Palestinian. There were changes in the army command. The Palestinian head of the Aqaba special economic zone did not have citizenship 10 years ago. Our letter said that personnel in government should have received their jobs through parliament.”…. We are trying to get all our forces together to hold a national conference by the beginning of the new year, to decide on a strategic movement which will protect this country and remove the influence of the Israelis and Americans.”….

Americans organizing ship for Gaza flotilla
July 21, 2010

The Hariri Murder Investigation:
T_desco has provided this report on as-Safir’s treatment of news that Hizbullah members will be named in the Hariri Investigation. I thank him. Even if Hizbullah members are implicated in the murder, many questions will still be asked: Did Hizbullah initiate the assassination planning? How much did either Iran or Syria know or approve of the action.

As Safir: Ex-U.S. Official: It Was Obvious Syrians Were Not Behind Hariri Killing

A former high-level U.S. official has said that Washington was lately aware that no Syrian stood behind the assassination of ex-Premier Saad Hariri. “It was lately obvious to us that the Syrians were not behind the assassination. However, they probably knew about it (sic!),” the former official told As Safir daily.

Asked about the political intentions of Hizbullah, the official said: “We don’t know yet. We have thought about many scenarios.” (…) Naharnet, July 20, 2010 (my emphasis) There is certainly some creative talent required to figure out the ‘motive’. Perhaps they should ask Hollywood.

As Safir: Bellemare Said Army Won’t Arrest Hizbullah Member in Case of Involvement in Hariri Murder

As-Safir quoted Bellemare as saying that the announcement of his findings would include two rounds. They will start in September and last till end of 2010.

The first round will involve 3-5 names from Hizbullah while the second will include the naming of around 20 party members, according to the report.

However, the Hizbullah leadership will not be blamed for the killing, As-Safir said, adding that his findings do not include names of Syrians.

Naharnet, July 20, 2010:

By not implicating the leadership they would cunningly manage to avoid all the hard questions concerning the alleged motive of the attack.

Iraqi cleric meets with PM candidate in Syria

By REBECCA SANTANA (AP) – 8 hours ago

BAGHDAD — Anti-American Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took a rare, public step into the political arena Monday, meeting in neighboring Syria with the man directly challenging Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for his office.

The talks between al-Sadr, who is nominally allied with al-Maliki, and former premier Ayad Allawi, who heads the heavily Sunni-backed Iraqiya coalition, appeared to be as much about showing al-Maliki that al-Sadr is keeping his options open as it was about any firm political agreement between the two men in the offing.

Al-Sadr rarely travels outside of his home base in Iran, where he lives in self-imposed exile. His followers won 39 seats in the 325-seat parliament in Iraq’s national election in March, giving him considerable sway over who becomes the next prime minister.

Following the ballot, al-Sadr joined a coalition with al-Maliki’s list, but the deep-rooted hatred many in the Sadrist camp feel toward the prime minister — who’s jailed thousands of their supporters — has stalled any further development of their alliance.

In Damascus, al-Sadr and Allawi appeared complimentary of each other following their meeting — a shocking development considering the past animosity between the two and a clear signal in Iraq’s rough-and-tumble political scene that all options are on the table when it comes to forming a new government….

But the two leaders’ appeared to put aside their differences in the meeting that was arranged by the Syrian president. In pictures, the pair sat side by side, with Allawi in his business suit and al-Sadr in his flowing robes and black turban…..

The director general of MI5 between 2002 and 2007, Eliza Manningham-Buller at the Iraq inquiry explains that:

• Saddam posed ‘limited threat’ inside UK before 2003
• CIA didn’t believe Iraq was responsible for 9/11
• Toppling of Saddam allowed Bin Laden to enter Iraq
• MI5 ‘overwhelmed’ with home-grown threats after 2003
- 20 July – The Guardian

Gareth Porter at IPS/ [thanks FLC]

“… Philip Giraldi, a former CIA counterterrorism official, told IPS that his sources are CIA officials with direct knowledge of the entire Amiri operation.
The CIA contacts say that Amiri had been reporting to the CIA for some time before being brought to the U.S. during Hajj last year, Giraldi told IPS, initially using satellite-based communication. But the contacts also say Amiri was a radiation safety specialist who was “absolutely peripheral” to Iran’s nuclear programme, according to Giraldi.

Amiri provided “almost no information” about Iran’s nuclear programme, said Giraldi, but had picked up “scuttlebutt” from other nuclear scientists with whom he was acquainted that the Iranians have no active nuclear weapon programme.

Opinion: “Future of the region made in Damascus” Mideastwire.com translation

On July 20, the state-controlled Al-Watan daily carried the following opinion piece by political editor Ziad Haidar: “The most prominent thing that came out from Damascus amid the intensive diplomatic activities it witnessed yesterday was probably the statement in which the local news agency SANA quoted a Syrian presidential spokesman. During President Bashar al-Assad’s meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, as SANA focused in its coverage of the meeting on the “wish to exploit this exceptional relationship (between Turkey and Syria) to secure peace and stability in the region,” he was stressing the necessity (and this is the main point) “for the solutions to the problems in the region to come from its states and not from abroad.”

“Therefore, what was noticeable in Davutoglu’s visit was that it coincided with the presence of three extremely important guests, which would probably explain why this visit, that was supposed to be held last Friday, was postponed until this day, i.e. so that he is present during President Al-Assad’s lunch for Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’d al-Hariri, and so that he could meet with the head of the Iraqi list that won the elections, Iyad Allawi, after the latter had met with President Al-Assad and leader of the Sadrist Movement Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr who had also been visiting Damascus for the last two days. The presence of the Turkish element in Damascus’ activities could be understood as a summit meeting which brought together the leaders of the region, or those who represent them, in order to draw up its future and add more factors of stability…

“In that same context, these contacts emerged as outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dispatched envoys and messages to Damascus, expressing “the wish to correct the course of relations between Damascus and Baghdad,” and calling for “forgetting the past and looking toward the future.” These messages coincided with the discussion of Iraqi affairs in Damascus, as part of the visit of American Senator John Kerry a while ago, especially in light of the American coldness that surfaced in regard to pushing for a prompt solution in Iraq based on the outcome of the elections. Later on, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman visited Baghdad and came out with a result “stressing the necessity for the government to include all the political sides that participated in the electoral process.”

“Find a Middle Ground: Armenian Church and the Getty Should Work Together,”
By Heghnar Watenpaugh, Los Angeles Times, July 19, 2010

CBS news reports that “The government of Syria has already reassigned hundreds of niqab-wearing school-teachers to administrative offices where they would not have contact with students.” AP’s Edward Yeranian writes that the recent ban “follows a decision last month to dismiss 1200 Syrian school teachers who wear the face veil in class. Education officials, at the time, stressed that Syria was a “secular society,” and that extremism is “unacceptable.”

Two Syrian women, left, wear the niqab, a face-covering Islamic veil, as they shop in Souk Al-Hamediah, Damascus’ oldest market, Syria, 19 July 2010

Al-Arabiya TV quoted an education ministry official, who argued the niqab was “against academic principles” as well as “campus regulations.”  He also called the practice an “ideological invasion.” Syria’s ruling Ba’ath Party denounced niqab-wearing at a recent conference.

Ayman Abdalnour writes that, according to sources he cannot name, the reason behind the new law is the rapid growth of private girls schools which encourage the niqab. Most of the private schools are run by religious organizations. Unofficial statistics reported by Abdalnour suggest that some 25-30% of female primary students are in private schools in Damsacus. There are some “200 private girls schools” in Damascus and “the majority of teachers wear the Niqab,” he insists. [A note of caution. These statistics are very hard to believe. How many elementary schools are there in all Damascus? Probably not more than 200, and that is including all private schools.]

Elizabeth Kennedy in her article, “Syria bans full Islamic face veils at universities” explores the notion that the niqab “is a religious obligation,” or reflection of personal freedom. As one women argued: “Wearing my niqab is a personal decision. It reflects my freedom.”

She also explores the notion of whether extremism is being brought on by the rapid income gap growing in Syria.
___

In an interview with Der Spiegel, ElBaradei said that if there were “no chance of a fair campaign,” he would call for a boycott.

Reports indicate that the presence of women in the Egyptian workforce “has not translated into any fundamental shift in prevailing attitudes toward women in public life.” According to the World Economic Forum’s 2009 Gender Gap Report (read the full report as a pdf), Egypt ranks 126 out of 134 countries. Syria ranks 121. In the political sphere, Egyptian women currently only occupy 8 out of the 454 parliamentary seats, spurring a new quota system that will guarantee 64 seats for women in the upcoming elections.

Thanks to POMED

The Economist published a new in-depth, 9-part, special report by Max Rodenbeck describing various aspects of Egyptian political, social, and economic life. The report considers the past three decades of “political paralysis” under the rule of Hosni Mubarak, but concludes that due to the looming presidential succession, and signs that Egypt’s “rising generation” may be more politically active than its predecessors, “the expectation of a seismic shift is almost tangible in the air.” Rodenbeck outlines three main possibilities for Egypt’s future: “It could go the way of Russia and be ruled by a new strongman from within the system. It might, just as possibly, go the way of Iran, and see that system swept away in anger. Or it could go the way of Turkey, and evolve into something less brittle and happier for all concerned.” The report also discusses Egypt’s resources and economic advantages; the lack of faith in the electoral process; the political promise of Mohamed ElBaradei; the changing role of Islam in Egyptian society and politics;the weakness of the Egyptian educational system; the implications of the socioeconomic gap; and possible scenarios for presidential succession after Mubarak.

The Economist article, When kings and princes grow old, about the Saudi succession …. paints the following fairly rosy picture: … Its $420 billion economy faces little risk of losing its place as the biggest in the Middle East, given steady oil reserves and production, around $150 billion in annual energy exports and a strengthening world oil market. The country’s net foreign reserves still nearly equal its GDP. Economists expect growth to accelerate slowly from around 4% this year, ensuring steadily rising living standards. These are seemingly impressive figures. Indeed, the Saudi economy is expected to grow 3.8% in 2010, but that is evidently in nominal terms. Since there is inflation of 5%, the economy is actually shrinking as the population grows. (This was copied from an email news letter)

A Decade in Power, part 1: Playing a double-edged game. Syria’s International Relations under Bashar
www.damascusbureau.org

It was a tough act to follow: Hafez al-Assad Hafez was known to be a savvy head of state. He was able to sustain good relations with important Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt and play on their differences. Where does Syria stand internationally ten years later, after a decade of Bashar al…

Netanyahu said something similar in his book, A Durable Peace:

Later on in his book, in a chapter entitled “Jewish Power,” Netanyahu assailed Israeli policy makers who had attempted to meet American land-for-peace demands, describing them as weaklings bent over in a “submissive posture.”

“It does not cross the minds of these advocates of capitulation,” Netanyahu wrote, “that the task of Israel’s leaders is to try to convince the American government that it is in the interest of the United States to follow policies that cohere with Israeli interests, not vice versa.”

Meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu last week, President Obama could not have been more effusive. “I believe Prime Minister Netanyahu wants peace,” Obama said. “I believe he is ready to take risks for peace.”

Bashar al-Assad’s tightening grip on Syria 10 years on
By Jim Muir BBC News, Beirut

When Bashar al-Assad was sworn in as Syria’s president on 17 July 2000 following his father Hafez al-Assad’s death, few would have bet heavily on the tall, callow-looking young man’s chances of still being in the job ten years later.

He was just 34 years old and the constitution had to be changed to enable him to take over. There was no precedent for power passing from father to son in a supposedly democratic Arab republic. ….. To mark Bashar Assad’s ten years in power, the international advocacy group Human Rights Watch issued a report entitled A Wasted Decade…. the odds on him celebrating a second decade of rule would certainly be a lot stronger than they were in 2000.

Egyptian Leader’s Health on U.S. Radar
By: Eli Lake | The Washington Times

U.S. and Western intelligence agencies assess that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is terminally ill, and the Obama administration is closely watching the expected transition of power in a nation that for decades has been an anchor of stability in the volatile Middle East and a key U.S. ally…. the 82-year-old Egyptian leader is thought by most Western intelligence agencies to be dying from terminal cancer affecting his stomach and pancreas…..An intelligence officer from a Central European service told The Washington Times last week that his service estimates that the Egyptian president will be dead within a year, and before Cairo’s scheduled presidential elections in September 2011….

A senior U.S. intelligence officer said: “We have access to, for lack of a better word, his court. We know he is dying, but we don’t know when he will die. You can be dying for a long time, by the way. Look at [former Cuban President Fidel] Castro.”…

In 2007, Mr. Mubarak pushed a new law through Egypt’s People’s Assembly that would make the speaker of the assembly president for 60 days while he oversaw arrangements for a special election. The new law requires anyone standing for that election to be in the leadership of a political party for at least one year.

While Mr. Mubarak has declined to endorse a successor, the new law on presidential succession provides a major advantage to Mr. Mubarak’s son, Gamal Mubarak, 47. The younger Mr. Mubarak is head of the powerful policy committee of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), the party that has led Egypt’s government for more than 50 years.

Other potential military rivals to Gamal Mubarak, whose nickname is “Jimmy” in U.S. policymaking circles and among the Egyptian elite such as Mr. Suleiman, are not formal members of the NDP.

T_desco writes: What would be the repercussions for Syria of a possible multi-front war in Lebanon (Hariri indictment > civil war > UNIFIL conflict > Israeli attack)?

Sami Moubayed:  Tribunal could shake up Lebanon
Gulf News, July 20, 2010

(…) However, Hezbollah officials believe that Israel, with the implicit backing of the US, is lobbying for the tribunal to name Hezbollah officials as the perpetrators of Hariri’s murder.

The Israelis believe that if that were to happen, Lebanon would erupt into chaos and it would become very difficult for the state to function, as Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri could not possibly continue “protecting and embracing” the arms of Hezbollah. The current rapprochement between Lebanese Sunnis and Shiites would collapse, Israelis believe, and Lebanon would become very hostile and unsafe territory for Hezbollah.”

The Israeli plot (courtesy Haaretz): Haaretz, July 19, 2010

“Nasrallah has good reason to sweat over the prosecutor’s apparent findings. They could mark the end of the coalition between Saad Hariri, Rafik Hariri’s son and current Lebanese premier, and Hezbollah. The findings could also make it difficult for Hezbollah to maintain its close alliance with the general Michel Aoun, a Christian, which would threaten Lebanon with a grave political crisis. (…)

In the military sphere, there is no force in Lebanon that poses a great threat to Hezbollah. Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has turned from an enemy of Hezbollah into an ally and General Aoun embraces Hezbollah publicly at every opportunity.

But in the event that information is released that includes proof of Hezbollah’s involvement in the Hariri killing, this support will no doubt be dropped. In its place, calls to disarm and dismantle Hezbollah, the last armed militia in Lebanon, will only grow stronger.”

General Aoun’s “analytical” scenario:
Naharnet, July 17, 2010

“The FPM leader expressed fears that upon issuance of the indictment, Israel would launch a large-scale war on Lebanon, during which the resistance would be hit by “Israeli fire” from one side and “internal strife fire” on the other.

Aoun also warned that given this situation, some Christian parties would seek to impose a new status quo in their regions while fundamentalist groups in Palestinian camps would act the same way.

As Safir said that the FPM leader asked his allies, particularly Hizbullah, to ready themselves to confront such strife and review the current structure of the national unity cabinet, which according to Aoun would be incapable of facing such threats.

“They want to kill you once more,” Aoun reportedly told Nasrallah. “There is still a Lebanese team betting on a new Israeli war, that’s why … I advise you to change the rules of the game.”

A couple of interesting articles by Georges Malbrunot today:

Les capitales européennes divisées sur la mission de leurs Casques bleus
Georges Malbrunot, Le Figaro, 19/07/2010

(…) Mais, dans son insistance pour que la résolution 1701 de l’ONU soit appliquée – quitte à heurter les sensibilités de la population -, Paris se retrouve isolé, au moment où le Conseil de sécurité doit reconduire, à la mi-août, le mandat de la Finul.

«Nous ne voulons pas que les Français prennent en otage la Finul pour régler des problèmes face au Hezbollah ou à l’Iran», lâche un diplomate d’un pays européen contributeur, qui soupçonne Paris de vouloir durcir le ton contre le Hezbollah – et son tuteur iranien accusé de fabriquer la bombe. (…)

D’autant que la relation avec la Finul n’est pas au mieux. Le commandant des forces armées, le général Jean Kahwagi, est irrité par les «trop nombreux déplacements de membres de la Finul en Israël». Plusieurs officiers français et italiens seraient visés. Là encore, le Hezbollah n’ignore rien de ces entorses au règlement onusien. (…)

Pour permettre à la Finul d’exercer pleinement son mandat, l’un des projets à l’étude à New York serait de retirer les soldats français de leur zone de déploiement pour leur confier la responsabilité d’une force de réaction rapide, renforcée par rapport à sa version actuelle, c’est-à-dire capable de s’interposer, en cas de problème grave. (…)

“Un attentat est redouté Le Figaro, 19/07/2010

Trois jours avant le déclenchement des manœuvres onusiennes début juillet, à Beyrouth, le ministère de la Défense conseilla à la Finul de ne pas se déployer sur le terrain (so much for Lebanese sovereignty; t_d). «Je répétais aux Français qu’ils devaient faire attention», affirme de son côté Nabil Fawaz, le maire de Tibnine.

L’activisme français dérange le Hezbollah. Certaines de ses armes restent dissimulées sous les mosquées et les terrains de football. Mais, contrairement aux Israéliens, les experts militaires occidentaux ne pensent pas que le Hezbollah ait introduit une quantité importante de munitions au Sud depuis 2006. Sa priorité est au nord de la zone Finul et du fleuve Litani. Le «Parti de Dieu» y a camouflé ses armes les plus sophistiquées, venues d’Iran et de Syrie, y compris dans les zones chrétiennes.

(…) Mais personne n’est dupe. «Si les Français ne changent pas leur comportement, il y aura une autre réaction», assure Hola Ibrahim, de Kirbet Slem. Sous-entendu : un attentat contre le contingent français ne serait pas à exclure.”

(my emphasis)

Une reconstitution de l’assassinat de Rafic Hariri près de Bordeaux

Une reconstitution de l’assassinat de l’ex premier ministre libanais Rafic Hariri en 2005 à Beyrouth doit avoir lieu cet automne dans une base militaire au sud de Bordeaux, révèle au Figaro une source policière. Un enquêteur s’est rendu récemment sur place. L’organisation de cette reconstitution à huis clos poserait d’importants problèmes de sécurité. (…)
Georges Malbrunot, 19/07/2010

Robert Fisk: They’re all grovelling and you can guess the reason Classic Fisk on Obama.

US’ Unusual Security Assistance to Israel

A top Hillary Clinton aide laid out in unusual detail Friday what he called the Obama administration’s unprecedented security assistance to the Jewish state.

“Our security relationship with Israel is broader, deeper and more intense than ever before,’ Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro told the Brookings Institution Friday.

Shapiro said the Obama administration would honor a 2007 commitment to provide Israel $30 billion in security assistance over the next ten years. Israel is the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid.

The U.S. also gives Israel something it does not give to any other beneficiary of U.S. foreign military financing, he noted.

“Unlike other beneficiaries of Foreign Military Financing, which are legally required to spend funds in the United States, Israel is the only country authorized to set aside one-quarter of its FMF funding for off-shore procurements,” Shapiro said.

The Obama administration is also continuing to commit itself to preserve Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge – “its ability to counter and defeat credible military threats from any individual state, coalition of states, or non-state actor, while sustaining minimal damages or casualties,” as Shapiro defined it.

That also means that the U.S. will sell Israel defense equipment that it will deny to other U.S. allies in the region.

“This means that as a matter of policy, we will not proceed with any release of military equipment or services that may pose a risk to allies or contribute to regional insecurity in the Middle East,” Shapiro said.

Iraqis to seek torture inquiry in Britain
Agence France-Presse – 17 July, 2010

More than 100 Iraqis who claim they were tortured and abused by British forces after the invasion of Iraq won a key legal battle in London on Friday in their bid to force a public inquiry.

Lawyers for the Iraqis said they had “incontrovertible” evidence the detainees were subjected to inhuman and degrading treatment by British soldiers that included hooding, electric shocks and sexual abuse.

Judges Christopher May and Debra Silber ruled the 102 Iraqis should be allowed to bring a High Court action to try to force an inquiry into their allegations against the Ministry of Defence.

“The claimant’s case is sufficiently persuasive for permission purposes,” the judges said at London’s High Court.

“It sufficiently makes the case that the alleged ill-treatment may be seen as systemic and raises questions of its authorisation, or failure to stop it.”

The Democracy Obsession
Posted on July 9th, 2010 by Patrick J. Buchanan

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With the disintegration of the Soviet Empire and the Soviet Union, and Beijing’s abandonment of Maoism, anti-communism necessarily ceased to be the polestar of U.S. foreign policy.

For many, our triumph fairly cried out for a bottom-up review of all the alliances created to fight that Cold War and a return to a policy of non-intervention in foreign quarrels where no vital U.S. interest was imperiled.

This was dismissed as isolationism. Seeking some new cause to give meaning to their lives, our suddenly superfluous foreign policy elites settled upon a crusade for democracy as America’s new mission in the world.

Interventions in Panama, Somalia, Haiti and Bosnia followed, plus wars in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. To further advance the great goal, the National Endowment for Democracy and agencies like Freedom House set out to subvert authoritarian regimes in Belgrade, Caracas, Kiev, Tbilisi, Beirut and Bishkek.

Cold War methods and means were now to be conscripted — for democratic ends.

Yet, considering the high cost in blood, money and lost leadership and prestige since our victory in the Cold War, the democracy crusade scarcely seems worth it. For while we have been bogged down in two wars, China has become the world’s leading manufacturer, steelmaker, auto producer and exporter, and the second largest economy on earth.

Nevertheless, we are ever admonished, we must not flag or fail in our pursuit of global democracy, for only when the world is democratic will our providential mission be accomplished. And only then can we be truly secure…..

From the Mideastwire Blog: “Kurtzer on preventing the next Lebanon war: we can only manage it after the fact”

This piece by former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer is, unfortunately, yet another indication of the poverty of thought in Washington and the US in general when it comes to heading off another devastating war in Lebanon and Israel. It is also instructive of the danger of having high profile figures like Kurtzer comment on situations for which they are not specialists – indeed, Kurtzer’s short piece on US options for preventing the next war – for CFR no less – carries a number of basic errors in regards to Lebanon and Hizbullah that perhaps he would not have made if the piece was only directly related to his apparent specialist field of Egypt and Israel:

Fadlallah death likely starting point for war? The piece starts off with this incredible statement: “There are two plausible scenarios for war in Lebanon. First, Hezbollah could initiate hostilities. The recent passing of Lebanese Shia cleric Muhammad Hussein Fadl’Allah, a spiritual adviser to Hezbollah and a man with many enemies inside and outside Lebanon, could spark strife within Lebanon in which Hezbollah could decide to attack Israel as a means of unifying its supporters.”

There is little explanation offered for what is a baffling FIRST statement of contingency. The scenario he draws here as a first order of business is something I have simply not heard discussed seriously or at all here in Beirut – such that I had to conclude perhaps Kurtzer was confusing Fadlallah with Mughniyeah? In any case, this sort of wild speculation at the beginning of what purports to be a serious treatment of a complex subject immediately calls into question what follows… To read the full post, click here.

Syrian Market too Expensive to Enter, Turkish Bank Says (Syria Report)
The Syrian market is too expensive to enter, the management of Turkish bank Halkbank said in press comments.

Economy: Customs Register 30 percent Increase in H1 Revenues

Revenues generated by Syria’s customs stood at SYP 43 billion in the first half of this year, an annual increase of 30 percent.

The Syrian Business Council, which regroups most of Syria’s new business elite, has issued a rare statement criticising the relevance [accuracy?] of official statistics and their impact on investment and growth.

Finance: Half of Private Sector Banks’ Branches Located in Greater Damascus

The number of branches and offices run by private sector banks in Syria increased by around 13 percent in the first half of this year.

Finance: Central Bank Encourages Lending to SMEs

The Central Bank has issued a decision to encourage local banks to extend loans and other credit facilities to small and medium enterprises as well as to productive sectors.

Tourism: Syria Records Significant Increase in Tourists in H1, 2010

The number of tourists having visited Syria in the first half of this year increased by 63 percent compared to the same period of last year according to the Ministry of Tourism.

Tourism: French Company to Build USD 22 Million Entertainment Centre in Homs

Loftus, a French company specialized in the construction and management of entertainment infrastructures, has signed an agreement to build an amusement centre in Homs. Read

The Human Rights Watch report, “A Wasted Decade: Human Rights in Syria during Bashar al-Asad’s First Ten Years in Power.”
Syria’s Decade of Repression
By: Nadim Houry | The Guardian

What is clear from a review of Assad’s decade in power is that he has no true commitment to broadening public freedoms for Syria’s citizens, perhaps the most repressed in the entire Arab world. What initiatives he has taken have been limited at best; he removed a ban on independent publications, but the only two private newspapers allowed to cover political topics are owned by businessmen closely tied to his government.

On the surface, Syria is a less menacing place than it was in the 1980s. Visitors to Damascus – one of this year’s hot travel destinations – are likely to stay in smart boutique hotels and dine in new restaurants. But scratch the surface, something few foreigners do, and the reality is as bleak as ever. As a prominent dissident told me recently: “In the 1980s, we went to jail without trial. Now, we get a trial, but we still go to jail.”

Noam Sheizaf “Endgame,” Haaretz, 15 July 2010.

It’s an idea for solving the conflict that sounds like a vision of the end of days: Grant Israeli citizenship and equal rights to all the Palestinians in the West Bank. And who is proposing the one-state solution? Right-wingers and settlers…. Geneva Initiative’s Gadi Baltiansky – “The solution for the coming decades is the present status quo, with improvements of one kind or another.”

TABLET Magazine taken from Haaretz and via FLC

“… Netanyahu is speaking to a small group in the West Bank settlement of Ofra two years after stepping down as prime minister in 1999…..

“I know what America is,” Netanyahu replied. “America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction. They won’t get in their way.” He then called former president Bill Clinton “radically pro-Palestinian,” and went on to belittle the Oslo peace accords as vulnerable to manipulation. Since the accords state that Israel would be allowed to hang on to pre-defined military zones in the West Bank, Netanyahu told his hosts that he could torpedo the accords by defining vast swaths of land as just that.

“They asked me before the election if I’d honor [the Oslo accords],” Netanyahu said. “I said I would, but … I’m going to interpret the accords in such a way that would allow me to put an end to this galloping forward to the ’67 borders. How did we do it? Nobody said what defined military zones were. Defined military zones are security zones; as far as I’m concerned, the entire Jordan Valley is a defined military zone. Go argue.”

Smiling, Netanyahu then recalled how he forced former U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher to agree to let Israel alone determine which parts of the West Bank were to be defined as military zones. “They didn’t want to give me that letter,” Netanyahu said, “so I didn’t give them the Hebron agreement [the agreement giving Hebron back to the Palestinians]. I cut the cabinet meeting short and said, ‘I’m not signing.’ Only when the letter came, during that meeting, to me and to Arafat, did I ratify the Hebron agreement. Why is this important? Because from that moment on, I de facto put an end to the Oslo accords.”

U.S.-Israeli security ties grow amid diplomatic disputes
By Glenn Kessler, The Washington Post

This week, Israel successfully conducted a test of a new mobile missile-defense system designed to shield Israeli towns from small rockets launched from the Gaza Strip. When the “Iron Dome” system is fully deployed in the next year, about half the cost — $205 million — will be borne by U.S…

Syrian Envoy, Code Pink Take Jabs at Obama’s Israel Policy
By Jay Solomon

The State Department’s pointman on military affairs got a one-two-punch Friday, as the Obama administration seeks to mend a diplomatic rift with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The pugilists: Syria’s ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, and the left-wing activist group, Code Pink.

Andrew Shapiro, assistant secretary of State for political and military affairs, gave an expansive speech at the Brookings Institution Friday morning that highlighted the deepening military ties between the Obama administration and Netanyahu’s government.

“Israel is a vital ally and a cornerstone of our regional security commitments,” Shapiro said. He outlined how the Obama administration has approved more security-assistance to Israel — $2.8 billion for the current year and $3 billion for 2011 -– than any other American administration.

Shapiro’s words marked a sharp break from earlier comments by Obama administration officials that American soldiers in the Middle East were being targeted, in part, because of the failure to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The comments have fueled a debate inside Washington in recent months over whether Israel is a strategic asset or liability for the U.S.

Shapiro sought to use his appearance to silence the debate. “We believe that…there are real strategic benefits to that relationship,” he said.

Still, critics of Israel emerged quickly to challenge what’s seen by some in the diplomatic community as a significant softening by the White House towards Israel in recent weeks. Earlier this month, President Barack Obama and Netanyahu met at the White House, shaking hands and smiling during a photo op and emphasizing the close ties between their countries.

Moustapha, Damascus’s long-serving envoy to Washington, challenged Shapiro on why the Obama administration remains quiet on Israel’s assumed nuclear-weapons capability. “I’m always puzzled, why is it that whenever an American official will discuss the Israeli military prowess and the cutting edge of warfare technology that Israel possesses, they will always, always never, never discuss the Israeli nuclear arsenal that actually exists?” Moustapha said.

Shapiro ducked the question with a joke: “I’m not going to be the first U.S. official to discuss, you know, Israeli nuclear” capabilities, he said.

An activist from Code Pink later pushed Shapiro on why the Obama administration refuses to hold discussions with the militant Palestinian group, Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. Again, Shapiro ducked directly answering the question.

“As I mentioned before, from the very beginning — from the very first days of the administration, has been committed to a peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians which will lead to a two-state solution,” Shapiro said.

Sec. of State Clinton’s remarks At a Reception Hosted for the Jewish Community and Hannah Rosenthal, the State Department’s Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism

President Obama and I are determined to curb anti-Semitism and to work to prevent the isolation of Israel internationally. So we are sending Hannah all over the world. (Laughter.)

Syria PM says peace out of reach due to Israel stubbornness, violations
20:17, July 15, 2010

Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Naji Otri on Thursday voiced pessimism over chances of achieving peace in the Middle East, saying peace became out of reach due to Israel’s stubbornness and violation of the international laws and charters.

Otri’ statements came during a speech to the 57th International Damascus Fair, which kicked off in the Syrian capital on Wednesday. The Syrian premier also slammed Israeli policies that included confiscating Palestinian lands, building settlements, imposing a siege on the Palestinians and attacking the international pro- Palestinians activists.

“Peace is a process based on the presence of two partners. It cannot be achieved by one side,” Otri said.

He also stressed that the economic blockade policy adopted against some counties has been futile and must be lifted due to its negative effects on these states’ peoples.

On Monday, Israel approved building new settlement in East Jerusalem, which outraged the Palestinians who want the city to be the capital of their future independent state.

The United States will continue to maintain Israel’s military advantage as well as protect it in the diplomatic arena, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said Wednesday, adding that the American commitment to Israel’s security was “not negotiable.”

U.S. UN envoy Susan Rice

Susan Rice Speaking during a reception for Israeli Ambassadors Gabriela Shalev and Daniel Carmon, held by the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in New York, Rice said the “United States of America remains fully and firmly committed to the peace and security of the State of Israel.”

“That commitment spans generations and political parties. It is not negotiable, and it never will be,” Rice added, saying the United States would “continue to strengthen Israel’s qualitative military advantage so that Israel can always defend itself, by itself, against any threat or possible combination of threats.”…

“But Gabi and I had the opportunity to work closely together on a series of important issues, from dealing with the deeply flawed Goldstone Report to seeing through the passage by the Security Council of the toughest sanctions resolution to date against Iran,” Rice said,…

New CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum Looks at “A Third Lebanon War” It discusses the most plausible scenarios for a renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon amidst rising tensions. By Daniel C. Kurtzer

Aleppo Soap Factory
Read the story in Aramco World

Syrian Police have been Told to Crack Down of Litterers

A Glittering Crossroads
2010-07-16, WSJ

By CHRISTIAN C. SAHNER Damascus, Syria It’s Friday and the weekly congregational prayer has just ended at the Umayyad Mosque, Syria’s most famous monument. As the faithful exit, they walk past an unassuming bit of masonry on the mosque’s southern … Syria is no ecumenical paradise, but it has a long legacy of religious diversity, which continues to this day. Christians still constitute at least 10% of the population, and President Bashar al-Assad and many government leaders are Alawis, a historically marginal sect of Shiite Islam.

Syrian Envoy, Code Pink Take Jabs at Obama’s Israel Policy

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By Jay Solomon

The State Department’s pointman on military affairs got a one-two-punch Friday, as the Obama administration seeks to mend a diplomatic rift with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The pugilists: Syria’s ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, and the left-wing activist group, Code Pink.

Andrew Shapiro, assistant secretary of State for political and military affairs, gave an expansive speech at the Brookings Institution Friday morning that highlighted the deepening military ties between the Obama administration and Netanyahu’s government.

“Israel is a vital ally and a cornerstone of our regional security commitments,” Shapiro said. He outlined how the Obama administration has approved more security-assistance to Israel — $2.8 billion for the current year and $3 billion for 2011 -– than any other American administration.

Shapiro’s words marked a sharp break from earlier comments by Obama administration officials that American soldiers in the Middle East were being targeted, in part, because of the failure to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The comments have fueled a debate inside Washington in recent months over whether Israel is a strategic asset or liability for the U.S.

Shapiro sought to use his appearance to silence the debate. “We believe that…there are real strategic benefits to that relationship,” he said.

Still, critics of Israel emerged quickly to challenge what’s seen by some in the diplomatic community as a significant softening by the White House towards Israel in recent weeks. Earlier this month, President Barack Obama and Netanyahu met at the White House, shaking hands and smiling during a photo op and emphasizing the close ties between their countries.

Moustapha, Damascus’s long-serving envoy to Washington, challenged Shapiro on why the Obama administration remains quiet on Israel’s assumed nuclear-weapons capability. “I’m always puzzled, why is it that whenever an American official will discuss the Israeli military prowess and the cutting edge of warfare technology that Israel possesses, they will always, always never, never discuss the Israeli nuclear arsenal that actually exists?” Moustapha said.

Shapiro ducked the question with a joke: “I’m not going to be the first U.S. official to discuss, you know, Israeli nuclear” capabilities, he said.

An activist from Code Pink later pushed Shapiro on why the Obama administration refuses to hold discussions with the militant Palestinian group, Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. Again, Shapiro ducked directly answering the question.

“As I mentioned before, from the very beginning — from the very first days of the administration, has been committed to a peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians which will lead to a two-state solution,” Shapiro said.

Can banning the Niqab really work?

There is something ironic in Syria banning the niqab, or full head cover. When I first arrived in Damascus in 1981 to go to the University of Damascus and live in wahda al-uwla in the University City, the hijab, or scarf used by women to cover their hair, was banned. Many women defied the ban and wore it on campus anyway, but it was perhaps only 30% of all women. Today the percent of students that wear it is much higher, perhaps 70%. I am only guessing as it has been two years since I was on campus. In the 1960s, the headscarf was even rarer than it had become in the 1980s. In 1979, Rifaat al-Assad’s troops, saraya al-difaa,  had stopped cars in downtown Damascus and forced women wearing the hijab to remove it, causing an public uproar and much resentment.

The spread of Islamic clothing and outward expressions of piety has been steady and uninterrupted over the last four decades. It is not clear how the government can stop or reverse this trend. It is not restricted to Syria of course, but a phenomenon common to much of the Islamic world.

Many theories have been offered for why Islamic clothing has spread. Some of these theories are:  it is due to the failure of secularism and materialist ideologies, such as communism and socialism; a protest against corrupt and authoritarian rule; in Syria, it has been argued that it is a “Sunni” protest against the dominance of Alawis, who are viewed to be lax Muslims (Alawi women do not wear the headscarf as a rule). I have heard other explanations, as well: fashion, western clothing is too expensive, the growth in women’s literacy has led to greater piety and familiarity with religion.

I would be interested in hearing the explanations of SC readers.

School ban on all-covering veil raises nary a peep among activists in the Middle East
2010-07-15 – LA Times

Who knew right-wing Western politicians and the Syrian government had something in common?

The niqab, a face-covering veil worn by some Muslim women that has been maligned by many in Europe and the United States as a symbol of oppression and religious extremism, has been quietly outlawed in public schools by Syrian authorities in an effort to protect the nation’s nominal secularism.

Syria has a long and fraught history with Islamic opposition groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. But despite possibly forcing 1,200 women out of their jobs, no one is headed to the streets or has even launched a Facebook campaign yet. ….

Bassam Kadi, director of the Syrian Women Observatory, who explained his reasons for declining to take up the cause of the niqab after several of the affected women approached his organization for help.

“The niqab is not a Syrian tradition,” Kadi told the National. “It’s an imported symbol of religious extremism and contradicts the moderate Islam we know here. If [a woman] wears niqab, she is forcing an attitude on society. She is making a statement. That is not acceptable in a school.”

Although no formal announcement was made, local media began reporting the ban in June after women who wore the niqab began coming forward and complaining that they had been fired or reassigned to government offices where they would not come into contact with students.

“Education in Syrian schools follows an objective, secular methodology and this is undermined by wearing the face veil,” Education Minister Ali Saad reportedly said during a teachers’ syndicate meeting last month…..

Sweeping support to ban full Islamic veil in Western Europe as France votes on Burka ban, survey shows

….According to a survey conducted by the U.S.-based Pew Research Center in April and May this year, support for banning the burka is especially high in France, where a whopping 82% are in favor of outlawing it in public places such as schools, hospitals and government offices, while just 17% are opposed to such measures.

But the study also indicates that the garment, which has been the subject of much heated debate and controversy in Europe, is becoming increasingly unpopular in Germany, Britain, and Spain, where 71%, 62% and 59%, respectively, of those surveyed endorsed burka bans similar to the proposed French law in their own countries.

Americans, on the other hand, remain strongly opposed to such a law. Only 28% of those surveyed in the U.S. were in support of a burka ban while 65% disapproved. ….In Paris, one communist lawmaker reportedly compared the cloak to “walking coffins” while another from President Nicolas Sarkozy’s conservative party stressed that women who wear the burka must be liberated — even if it’s against their will….

Off the Wall writes:

One of our most miserable failures, as secular Arabs, was not to focus on a large marginalized segment of our society in the deep rural areas. So long as our cities looked more like western cities, with a tolerable amount of head-scarves, and so long as the rural only showed up in the commercial sector of our cities, or during their visits to city doctors, we thought that progress was happening as we had no idea, or we did not want to realize the extent of our failures in bringing true development, education, modernization, and progress into these rural areas. We may have brought electricity, built a few schools, facilitated rapid and excessive and unsustainable exploitation of land and water resources, but true enlightenment, i guess, we did not bring. The story is the same in most Arab “secular” republics.

With this failure, and as a significant segment of rural Arabs left their forgotten villages and came to the cities in search of better economic life, and in many cases, were even forced to do so through the extreme centralization prevalent in our societies, the cities started to reflect more of the true societal differences, and the more conservative leaning of the country, than they did when they only held about 15% of our “more affluent” westernized population. No secular Arab thinker dares to bring this issue, for it highlights our 70 year failure in affecting real, non-cosmetic progress. Tribal mentality remained the same, and it has by now spread into the cities where the narrow circles of old-urbanites , that used to be able to pretend that they represent the entire society, can no longer do so. Hence their nostalgia to the old days.

A population that remained more susceptible to wahabi ideas now constitutes a significant segment of Arab City dwellers, especially in Megacities, where traditionally, more cosmopolitan, enlightened strands of Islam was previously practiced. Ignoring the migrants after they migrated to the cities and leaving them to fend for themselves without real help exacerbated the problem and made more of the city now even more susceptible to Wahabi ideas. The same story can be told in countless Arab countries. It is not the Wahabi idea that is gaining, it is our failure to bring a large segment of our society into a level of development that can confront these ideas is the cause of what we now see.

Note: Mr. N3eyseh should try to explain the fact that the little desert principalities he so harshly criticizes have three (Qatar, Oman, and UAE) among the 32 least corrupt countries on earth, with two other monarchies (Jordan and Morocco) steadily moving up into the rank of 40s while the entirety of Arab “secular” republics are among the worst in corruption perception index with few of them going worst by the year. We failed, and we should face up. We need to re-invent Arab secularism and progressive thought to be more inclusive, less elitist, and truly committed to the human development of the Arab world.

Veiled Arguments
By RONALD P. SOKOL, July 14, 2010, International Herald Tribune

Two years ago, France’s highest court denied citizenship to a Muslim woman on the grounds that she had not assimilated into French society. I agreed to defend her before the European Court of Human Rights. I could have emphasized religious freedom; I raised the argument, but there was an easier way to show that the court had gone astray.

French law gives two tests of assimilation: knowledge of the language and absence of a criminal record. My client spoke fluent French and had no criminal record. But reports of interviews by social workers said that she had showed up wearing a niqab. On that basis, the court concluded that she practiced a form of religion incompatible with equal rights of men and women.

I argued that to allow an official to judge a failure to assimilate without providing criteria was to invite arbitrary decisions. The Human Rights Convention prohibits governments from acting arbitrarily. The case is currently pending before the European Court. ….

On Tuesday, the National Assembly passed the draft law by a vote of 335 to 1. It declares that “no one can, in the public space, wear clothing intended to hide the face.” The Senate is expected to pass the bill in September, when it will become law.

While the extreme marginality of the practice renders discussion somewhat ridiculous, the government’s insistence that the issue is vital makes it incumbent to show that its reasons do not resist analysis. Jean-François Copé, the majority leader in the French National Assembly and a small town mayor, argued in an opinion article on these pages (May 6) that “face covering poses a serious safety problem” and that “visibility of the face in the public sphere” is a fundamental principle.

The first argument is easily disposed of. There exists no evidence that women wearing the veil pose a security problem. Copé provides no evidence. The government’s own reports fail to show a public safety issue. In the total absence of any evidence, passing a law to provide protection where no protection is needed is either an exercise in absurdity or conceals a different agenda.

Copé’s second reason is more interesting. He asks, “How can you establish a relationship with a person who, by hiding a smile or a glance … refuses to exist in the eyes of others?” For the majority leader, “the niqab and burqa represent a refusal to exist as a person in the eyes of others.” In this he may be correct. But if a woman has a duty to show her face in public it must be because someone else has the right to see her face. That is the pretended “right” that Copé asserts.

I know of no such right. Copé will not find it in the Declaration of the Rights of Man, nor in the European Convention of Human Rights. When walking down the Champs Elysées, I have no right to see the face of passersby. Nor do I want such a right. While Copé may want a passer-by to give him a glance or a smile, he has no right to demand it.

Yes, the veil may be antisocial, but, fortunately, in a democratic, pluralistic society there is no legal duty to be social…..

Ronald P. Sokol is a lawyer in Aix-en-Provence, France.

Syrian President’s 10 Years In Power See Engagement With West
2010-07-14 03:26:38.780 GMT

DAMASCUS (AFP)–After years of enduring intense international pressure, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has engaged in a process of rapprochement with the West the results of which remain unclear.

Assad, who celebrates 10 years in power Saturday, re-opened a dialogue with Western nations by making concessions on Lebanon, the smaller western neighbor over which Damascus held sway for three decades, analysts said.

That enabled Assad to return to the international scene, as he demonstrated by attending a 2008 reception in Paris by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

And relations with the U.S. began to improve under the presidency of Barack Obama.

The rapprochement continues, but “mistrust remains” because of the close ties that Syria forged with Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas movement, said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut.

And so Obama renewed the sanctions that have been in force against Syria since 2004, accusing Damascus of supporting “terrorist” organizations. And the new U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, still hasn’t arrived at his post because Republican opposition to Obama has blocked his confirmation. Lebanon remains the keystone of the thaw in relations between Syria and the West.

It “gives a regional depth” to Syria, which continues to maintain “an important influence” there through its allies, Hezbollah, the Christian leader Michel Aoun and the Baath party in Lebanon, Salem said.

In parallel, since December, Assad has twice hosted visits by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who had accused Damascus of being behind the 2005 assassination of his father, Rafiq Hariri. Assad also has maintained his country’s traditionally close ties with Iran, ignoring calls by the West to move away from Tehran and closer to Turkey.

Assad follows a “median policy,” and is not entirely in the “trenches” of the vehemently anti-Western and anti-Israeli Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Salem said. In May 2008, Assad began Turkish-mediated indirect talks with Israel over the Golan Heights, which Israel unilaterally annexed from Syria in 1981, and backs direct negotiations in the long run.

But there is still much do be done to consolidate Syria’s opening to the West, and Damascus still “is not out of the eye of the storm,” said analyst Riad Kahwaji.

The possibility of a U.S. or Israeli air strike against Iran, which denies accusations it is building a nuclear bomb, raise “question marks” about Syria’s position said Kahwaji, who is based in Dubai. “Would it (Syria) side with its Iranian ally? Could its leaders avoid a war?” asked Kahwaji, director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, or INEGMA.

Information from U.S.and Israeli sources about the installation by Iran of a radar in Syria to detect a possible attack means that Syria would be “the first target,” Kahwaji said. Moreover, Syrian leaders haven’t hidden their disappointment over the bleak chances for Middle East peace under U.S. leadership, demonstrated by the stagnant negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.

“When one does not obtain results, one is weak,” Assad said in Argentina earlier this month, during a Latin American tour. “Our experience with the United States is that they are unable to manage a peace process from the beginning to the end,” he said. At home in Syria, “the political hopes for reforms and democratization that were raised” by the accession of the young president, who was born in 1965, faded with the imprisonment of several opposition figures, Salem noted.

Syria is yet to play its cards
Ian Black, 2010-07-14 Guardian (GB):

Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, can allow himself a moment of quiet self-congratulation this weekend when he marks 10 years in power. His father, Hafez, was a hard act to follow in a famously tough neighbourhood but Assad the son has gone a fair …

Israel Lawmakers Push Referendum For Golan, E Jerusalem
2010-07-14

JERUSALEM (AFP)–An Israeli parliamentary committee voted Wednesday in favor of a bill requiring a referendum prior to any possible withdrawal from east Jerusalem or the Golan Heights, a committee spokesman said. “The draft law on the referendum was approved Wednesday by five votes against two,” he told AFP. The bill had passed a first reading in parliament in 2008 and now has committee approval to go for the two more readings needed before it can become law.

It aims to make it more difficult for the government to cede territory, saying that a public referendum or a special majority of two thirds of lawmakers, would be necessary before withdrawal from land under Israeli sovereignty.

This refers to east Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, both of which Israel captured in the 1967 Six Day War and later annexed in moves not recognized by the international community. Syria has demanded the complete return of the Golan Heights as a condition for peace with Israel, while the Palestinians view East Jerusalem as the capital of their promised state.

Syria raises concern to Security Council over latest UN report
2010-07-14 19

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 14, 2010 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — Syria on Wednesday circulated a letter to the UN Security Council, raising concerns over the UN’s role with Syrian-Lebanese relations, citing their continued attempt to “interfere” in the heels of the newest report on the region. The letter, which was delivered by Syrian UN ambassador Bashar Ja’afari and dated July 7, comes in response to UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon’s latest report, which called upon Syria to ” cooperate” with such efforts with Lebanon to dismantle the Palestinian military bases that “straddle” the border of the two regions.

Ban’s report “continues the attempt to interfere in the development of Syrian-Lebanese relations,” said the letter, taking note that “continued interference” in the countries’bilateral relations would be “reprehensible.”…”The Syrian Arab Republic has nothing to do with the matter,” said the letter, reiterating the “competence” of the Lebanese government….

Syria Will Double Gasoline Imports in August on Tourism Demand
2010-07-14
By Brian Murphy

July 14 (Bloomberg) — Sytrol, Syria’s state-owned oil marketing company, will double gasoline imports next month as tourism boosts consumption, a company spokesman said.

Sytrol bought two 30,000-metric-ton cargoes of gasoline for delivery to the Mediterranean port of Banias in August, compared with one in July, the spokesman, who declined to be identified because of company policy, said today by phone from Damascus.

Syria consumes between 175,000 and 200,000 tons of gasolineeach month. It usually imports 30,000 tons to cover theshortfall from its two refineries, the spokesman said.

Turks in Tel Aviv Show Business Binds Israel to Muslim Ally in Gaza Crisis
By David Wainer and Ben Holland

July 14 (Bloomberg) — Five miles from the center of Tel Aviv, more than a dozen Turks wearing red shirts emblazoned with their national flag work to complete a 30-story residential tower.

Manager Nissim Gayus says it’s “business as usual,” six weeks after Israeli troops killed nine Turkish activists on an aid convoy bound for the Gaza Strip. While the raid has strained a political alliance of more than half a century, commercial ties between the countries survive, according to Gayus, who works at Ankara-based Yilmazlar Construction Group.

“The private sector just hasn’t been influenced at all,” Gayus said at Yilmazlar’s Ramat Gan office outside Tel Aviv. “We’re not feeling any damage in our projects.”

Via TWN via FLC

“… At the Nixon Center, it will be Chas Freeman vs. Rob Satloff on the topic: “Israel: Strategic Asset or Liability?”…”

One State/Two States: Rethinking Israel and Palestine
By Danny Rubinstein in Dissent.

Of the 300,000 Arabs of East Jerusalem, tens of thousands of them have applied to the Ministry of the Interior for full Israeli citizenship. In 1967, when East Jerusalem was annexed to Israel, its inhabitants were given “temporary resident” status, not citizenship. This resembles the U.S. green card, except that it does not serve as a way-station to full citizenship. Temporary residents have all the rights and obligations of a regular citizen—they pay taxes and receive the benefits of the social welfare system. But they cannot vote in parliamentary elections or carry an Israeli passport.

That they can’t vote for Knesset members has not bothered the Jerusalem Arabs, nor has the lack of a passport—the government gives travelers an Israeli “Laisser-Passer.” The problem, from their vantage point, is that they can lose their temporary resident status if they don’t continue to live in Jerusalem. Indeed, the Interior Ministry has taken away temporary resident cards from thousands of Jerusalem Arabs who moved to areas in the West Bank or who have lived overseas for a few years.

Hence the growing number of requests for full Israeli citizenship. There are many difficulties in the way. The most serious is that such a request is considered as collaboration with the enemy, the conqueror, and therefore a betrayal of Palestinian nationalism. That’s why so few applied in the years after the 1967 War—and most of them were Jerusalem Arabs who married Israeli Arabs. The PLO and the Palestinian Authority government in Ramallah have decided to fight the new trend. They sent representatives to the East Jerusalem office of the Interior Ministry and warned those standing on line not to request the citizenship application forms.

Despite the warnings, the number of applicants is growing. A spokesman for the ministry told me that in the last two years, about twelve thousand Palestinians from East Jerusalem have received Israeli citizenship. What is most significant here is that there isn’t any embarrassment about applying for it. A Palestinian journalist told me, “Not only are they not embarrassed, they are proud that they have succeeded in getting Israeli citizenship.” This is the strongest possible example of the low point that Palestinian nationalism has reached—at least in the eyes of the Palestinians of Jerusalem. They now believe that the Israeli (Jewish) presence in the eastern part of the city is so powerful that it cannot be shaken or dislodged. The city won’t be divided, and so they are adapting to a situation that will lead in the end to a single state.
In international diplomacy there is a pervasive idea that it is possible and necessary to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza that will exist side by side with Israel. Many Israelis and Palestinians want this and believe in it. But the forces working against this possibility are many and powerful. Israeli governments have enabled the settlement of over half a million Jews beyond the 1967 borders. This represents almost 10 percent of the Jews in Israel. About 300,000 of them live in settlements in the West Bank and about 200,000 are in the Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem. There are those among them who will fight with all their strength to prevent an Israeli withdrawal and the establishment of a Palestinian state. But what is no less important is that on the Palestinian side as well a new situation has emerged. National unity has dissolved, the national movement has atrophied and declined, and the idea has become acceptable that if there won’t be two states for two peoples, it is better that there be one state.

2008

Specter and Assad meet, discuss peace broker role
By Sarah Freishtat · July 12, 2010

WASHINGTON (JTA) — Sen. Arlen Specter in a Damascus meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad discussed a role as a peace mediator between Syria and Israel. JTA confirmed last weekend’s meeting, which was reported this week in the Israeli and Turkish media, with sources who helped organize the event.

Specter (D-Pa.), who is Jewish and has longstanding ties with Syria, first flew to Israel to see if Israeli officials wanted to convey any messages to Assad.

According to Ynet, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon told Specter that Israel was ready to resume talks without preconditions, that it did not plan to launch attacks on its northern border and that a Syria-brokered release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held captive in the Gaza Strip, would be a goodwill gesture. Hamas, the terrorist group that controls Gaza, is close to the Assad regime.

Specter then flew to Damascus, where he met with Assad. There was no official word about the meeting. It’s not clear who initiated the Assad-Specter meeting. His pro-Israel credentials are impeccable, but he has always counseled an openness to Syria. …

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and author of the Syria Comment newsletter, said Specter is a natural choice for mediator because he has visited Damascus nearly 20 times during his time in office and he is Jewish. Landis said Syria wants to use diplomatic means to help stabilize and improve its economy and get back the Golan.

“Syria is finding out if there’s anything left in the Obama administration that could be useful to them,” Landis said.

Eyal Zisser, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, said the status of Specter’s Israeli interlocutor — Ayalon, a deputy minister with no power — meant the Israelis did not take seriously the prospect of renewed talks.

“He’s just a respected American senator who comes to Syria often,” Zisser said. “Unfortunately there is nothing new there.”

U.S. asks Syria to support Palestinian-Israeli direct talks
ATFP World Press Roundup Article from Xinhua, July 12, 2010

The U.S. administration demanded Syria not to hinder the Palestinian National Authority’s (PNA) tendency towards direct negotiations with Israel, local news website Syria Now reported on Monday. A well-informed source confirmed that Washington asks Damascus, through U.S. Senator Arlen Specter, not to hinder the PNA tendency towards direct negotiation at a time when the Palestinian side showed hesitation over the results of the indirect talks and Arab League chief Amr Moussa declared that those talks have failed….

From the latest report by Conflicts Forum

Palestinian sources tell us that the US ‘proximity talks’ are stuck on the borders issue with Israel demanding land swaps on a 5 – 1 basis in Israel’s favour, and the US suggesting a 3 -1 basis. This represents a regression rather than progression: Israel had earlier accepted a 1:1 basis. It means that that the talks have achieved almost nothing of substance.

Stephen M. Walt, “With friends like these. . .” Foreign Policy

Syrian secularism: a model for the Middle East: Westerners don’t see that Syria’s embrace of diversity is a crucial bulwark against extremism.
By Ahmed Salkini / July 13, 2010 Christian Science Monitor

….Secularism is often defined as “indifference to or rejection or exclusion of religion and religious considerations.” Syria defines it differently – not in terms of “rejection,” or even “tolerance,” but in terms of “embracing” all religions and “taking pride” in a diverse heritage.

While some countries in the Middle East tout themselves as a state for one religion (the Jewish State), Syria prides itself on being a state for all religions – and no religion. It is this formula that defines the true Syrian identity.

The Syria I grew up in embraced everyone. My own father is a decorated veteran of the 1973 war against Israel. Yet, when his first child was born after the war – and after four previous heartbreaking miscarriages – it was a Syrian Jewish doctor in whose hands he entrusted my life. I owe my life to that doctor, who saved me after a complication during infancy that nearly resulted in my death.

My father was no exception. Syria’s Jewish community was historically among the most successful, with clients and friends from across Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious social fabric.

The Syrian Christian community, one of the oldest in the world, is such an integral part of our society that Pope Benedict XVI extolled Syria as “an example of coexistence and tolerance to the world.” Indeed, there are more than 13 Christian denominations in Syria.

Still, our history is not one of unscathed harmonious coexistence. We have seen our share of sporadic internal conflict. Such incidents, however, were anomalies that said less about Syria and more about the human tendency to act according to brute instinct during times of tension…..

Securing secular strongholds, such as Syria, is imperative not only for the peoples of the region, but also to the national interests of the US, Europe, and all major powers…. Syria faces several challenges, including retrieving the Israeli-occupied Golan and improving the standard of living for all Syrians. Achieving both is a matter of time: Freeing the Golan is inevitable, and the economy is on a strong upswing. Losing our secular identity to the forces of extremism, though, would be an irreversible and existential peril.

POMED writes:

U.S. Calls On Syria To Honor Human Rights Obligations: The White House released a statement by National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer condemning Syria’s conviction and sentencing of two prominent human rights lawyers: Haitham Maleh on July 4, and Mohannad al-Hassani on June 23. The statement also condemned the re-arrest and charging of Ali Abdullah, a rights activist and member of the Damascus Declaration’s National Council. Sec. Clinton issued parallel remarks condemning Maleh’s conviction, stating that the ruling “is an example of Syria’s failure to comply with minimum international human rights standards.” Both sets of comments called on Syria to release its political prisoners.

Syrian president to mark 10 years in power
Some economic reforms achieved but need for political and social improvements
Alistair Lyons, Reuters, July 12, 2010

Although Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has managed to liberalise his country’s stilted economy to some extent, he has not been as successful with its politics.
His first decade in power, a milestone he will pass on Saturday, is ending more repressively than it began….A military court gave 79-year-old lawyer Haitham Al Maleh a three-year jail term last week for “weakening national morale”. He was arrested last year after renewing calls to dismantle the 1963 emergency law that bans all opposition to the Baath Party.

In June, another lawyer was jailed on the same charges and a writer was re-arrested a day after completing 2 1/2 years in prison. Five opposition figures were freed after serving similar sentences. Former parliamentarian Riad Seif remains behind bars.

“Assad is sending a message that he doesn’t care about human rights and political reforms in Syria and that he doesn’t think the international community cares or will sanction him on that,” said Nadim Houry, Human Rights Watch Director in Beirut.

Damascus has acquired a glossy appearance in the last 10 years, with a sprinkling of boutique hotels, chic cafes and shopping malls, along with private banks and construction projects….

“The government undoubtedly assumes that by keeping a tight rein on the people and maintaining clear red lines, it will face less trouble in the long run and fewer people will go to jail,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at Oklahoma University.

“Syria is surrounded by countries that have been plagued by long civil wars and tough insurgencies,” he said, citing Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “Syrian security has concluded that it cannot risk relaxing controls.”…..Assad, who survived intense US pressure under ex-President George W. Bush, has emerged unbowed and feeling vindicated.

“The international pressure on Syria was never about human rights,” Houry said. “In the Bush years there was clearly more criticism of its human rights record, but it was often part of a campaign that had broader interests and the Syrians knew that.”

Upswing in Assad’s fortunes

In the last two years, Assad has forged closer ties with Iran, Turkey and Qatar, mended fences with Saudi Arabia and revived much of Syria’s influence in Lebanon, keeping links with Hezbollah there and with the Palestinian Hamas movement.

US President Barack Obama has sought to engage Syria and enlist its help in stabilising Iraq and in regional peace moves, although Congress has yet to confirm an ambassador to Damascus.

Regardless of which American President is in power, Assad seems in no hurry to ease up on his domestic critics, who pose no credible challenge to his now well-entrenched authority.

“In reality, Syria’s touch regarding human rights is not a function of administrations in Washington,” Murhaf Jouejati, a scholar at the Middle East Institute in the US capital, said.
“Rather, Syria’s organising principle seems to be: it’s better to be feared than to be loved. More economic space will not necessarily translate into improved human rights.”….

“The Syrian regime argues that it provides precious security and stability and that it has protected its minorities and secular freedoms better then other Arab states,” Landis said.

“It is hard to know whether these arguments are real and based on a judicious assessment of local realities, or simply self-serving justifications for clinging to power.”

Getting the Americans Off Your Back

….Palestinians are insisting that talks pick up where they left off. They also want Israel to halt settlement activity in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

It’s unclear if they’ll get either. Netanyahu, who has been calling for Palestinians to resume talks, is signaling a desire to revisit some issues and wants no “preconditions” to the talks. That makes Palestinians wonder whether Netanyahu is ready to make a deal or just wants to restart talks to get the Americans and international community off his back.

Israeli Finance Ministry explains recent IDF-sourced Hezbollah stories
July 11, 2010 by Didi Remez (Thank you Didi. This explains a lot. The Syrians interpreted this softening the ground for a possible strike on Hizbullah.)

Why the sudden spate of Israeli-sourced publications on Hezbollah’s military power?

On Wednesday (July 7 2010) this one, in the Jerusalem Post, elicited a sarcastic Tweet from Foreign Policy’s Marc Lynch:

Israel’s shocking discovery of Hezballah presence in….Lebanon. Believe it or not!

This morning (July 11 2010), Maariv provided a mundane (by Israeli standards) explanation from the Finance Ministry:

“it’s interesting how every time the military budget is on the table, they release from the stocks Hezbollah’s missile array and expose sensitive classified material”

[Front-page teaser] The Finance Ministry accuses: “The IDF is using Hezbollah in the battle over the budget”

[Headline] Finance Ministry: Barak most expensive Defense Minister ever

[Sub-headline] The battle for the defense budget goes ad hominem; senior Finance Ministry officials: The IDF is even using Hezbollah to prevent cuts

Ben Caspit, Maariv, July 11 2010 [page 7; Hebrew original here and at bottom of post]

“Ehud Barak is the most expensive defense minister in Israel’s history”; “The IDF is impertinently disregarding all of the Brodet Commission’s findings, while deceiving the public”; “it’s interesting how every time the military budget is on the table, they release from the stocks Hezbollah’s missile array and expose sensitive classified material,” — these are just some of the harsh statements that were heard over the weekend among senior Finance Ministry officials and directed against the IDF and the security establishment.

A brutal struggle over the Defense Ministry’s budget is expected next week…..

Israeli Military Finds Flotilla Killings Justified
By: Ethan Bronner | The New York Times

Israel may put limits on citizenship for converts
(By Janine Zacharia, The Washington Post)

JERUSALEM — An Israeli parliamentary committee on Monday advanced a bill that could lead to lack of recognition for conversions to Judaism performed by rabbis from the Reform and Conservative movements. …. The bill “delegitimizes most of North American Jewry” and brings back the question of “who has the authority to determine someone’s Jewish identity,” Wernick added, noting that 85 percent of American Jewry is affiliated with non-Orthodox branches of Judaism.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordon could lose its pecuniary aid from the United States should it continue to enhance its nuclear program without cooperation with Israel, Israeli news source Ynet reported.

Amman ignored Israeli requests to be involved in the extraction and enrichment of uranium which prompted the threat from Washington. The U.S. and Jordan discussed Jordan’s nuclear plan for six months, but the Jordanians were unable to obtain US approval. … the Jordanian economy is hinged on American aid which limits its ability to hold its ground in talks with Washington. This year, the US transferred at least $665 million during the first half of the year, over half of which was for financial aid and the rest for military aid. King Abdullah condemned Israel for impeding his country’s efforts in its nuclear program last month. The king told the Wall Street Journal that France and South Korea were being persuaded by the Israeli government to not sell nuclear technologies to Jordan. He added that Israeli-Jordanian relations have sunk to a point they have not been since the two countries signed a peace agreement after being in a state of war for nearly half a century.

Swoop claims that one senior US official described the outcome of the meeting between Obama and Netanyahu as a “ritualized reversal” of his Middle East policy. The article adds: “US officials tell us privately that they are deeply pessimistic about any immediate advances in the peace process.”

Gideon Levy agrees with this assessment of the Obama-Netanyahu meeting. He writes:

If there remained any vestiges of hope in the Middle East from Barack Obama, they have dissipated; if some people still expected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to lead a courageous move, they now know they made a mistake (and misled others ).

Gideon Levy has also written a wonderful article entitled, “A Peace Crime.” In which he explains that Assad has stated very clearly that Syria wants peace, but Israel will not say yes and test him. Why? Levy argues it is because Israel would prefer to keep the Golan. I copy the article below. The comment section is interesting because so many Israelis argue against him, calling Assad a bad person, calling Syria a bad country, claiming Israel deserves the land, arguing that it was Syria’s fault for losing it, that Israel won it fairly, that it needs it for defense, etc.

Turkey is scheduled to get a new US ambassador. This is an occasion for a good fight in the halls of the Obama administration. Ambassador Ricciardone’s name has been put forward. The neocons want to sink his nomination because they want Obama to take a hard line on Turkey and punish it for breaking with Israel. Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy explains that Obama’s people will probable waffle, as it is doing with Syria, and allow Ricciardone to languish. He writes,

the main question will be whether the Obama administration is willing to make that case and use some of its political capital to push the nomination through. They haven’t always been eager to do so, as with the nomination of Robert Ford to be ambassador to Syria. Ford is well-liked by everybody, but the administration hasn’t been active in pressing for his confirmation, potentially because it isn’t eager to have a public debate about its policy of engaging Syria — which has yet to show results.

A peace crime
What more can Assad say that he hasn’t already? How long must he knock in vain on Israel’s locked door?
By Gideon Levy

It couldn’t have been spelled out more explicitly, clearly and emphatically. Read and judge for yourselves: “Our position is clear: When Israel returns the entire Golan Heights, of course we will sign a peace agreement with it …. What’s the point of peace if the embassy is surrounded by security, if there is no trade and tourism between the two countries? That’s not peace. That’s a permanent cease-fire agreement. This is what I say to whoever comes to us to talk about the Syrian track: We are interested in a comprehensive peace, i.e., normal relations.”

Who said this to whom? Syrian President Bashar Assad to the Lebanese newspaper As-Safir last week. These astounding things were said to Arab, not Western ears, and they went virtually unnoticed here. Can you believe it?

What more can Assad say that he hasn’t already? How many more times does he have to declare his peaceful intentions before someone wakes up here? How long must he knock in vain on Israel’s locked door? And if that were not enough, he also called on Turkey to work to calm the crisis with Israel so it can mediate between Israel and Syria.

Assad’s words should have been headline news last week and in the coming weeks. Anwar Sadat said less before he came to Israel. In those days we were excited by his words, today we brazenly disregard such statements. This leads to only one conclusion: Israel does not want peace with Syria. Period. It prefers the Golan over peace with one of its biggest and most dangerous enemies. It prefers real estate, bed and breakfasts, mineral water, trendy wine and a few thousand settlers over a strategic change in its status.

Just imagine what would happen if we emerged from the ruins of our international status to sign a peace agreement with Syria – how the international climate regarding us would suddenly change, how the “axis of evil” would crack and Iran’s strongholds weaken, how Hezbollah would get a black eye, more than in all the Lebanon wars….

True, they say the Mossad chief thinks that Assad will never make peace because the whole justification for his regime is based on hostility toward Israel. Our experts are never wrong, but similar things were said about Sadat. True, Assad also said other things. Other? Not really. He said that if he does not succeed through peace, he will try to liberate the Golan through resistance. Illogical? Illegitimate? …

A responsible neighbor
First of all, by easing the blockade of Gaza after the flotilla incident, Israel admitted in retrospect that its previous policy was wrong. No international commission will justify the blockade after Netanyahu has renounced it.
By Aluf Benn, 07.07.10, Haaretz

My man of the week is Syrian President Bashar Assad. His call to calm the crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations seems like a serious attempt to cool the mutual invective between Ankara and Jerusalem. “If the relationship between Turkey and Israel is not renewed, it will be very difficult for Turkey to play a role in negotiations to revive the Middle East peace process,” Assad said on Monday in Spain. And he added that failure to mend these ties would “without doubt affect the stability in the region.”

Assad’s balanced position was a surprise. Instead of getting up and cursing Israel for its “aggression” against a Gaza-bound flotilla in May, he acted like a responsible neighbor by trying to calm the dispute. His remarks are being interpreted as a diplomatic warning to Turkey’s leaders: If you continue quarreling with Israel, you will lose your influence and encourage the extremists who undermine stability. Cool it.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, have turned out to be talented diplomats. The flotilla that set out for the Gaza Strip under their aegis resulted in the easing of Israel’s blockade on Gaza. And Davutoglu’s recent meeting with Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer did more to undermine the unity of Israel’s governing coalition than any other incident to date. Even U.S. President Barack Obama, for all his efforts, was unable to so threaten the stability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule….

ANALYSIS / Iran is keeping a tight rein on Nasrallah and Hezbollah
With aid from Iran, Syria has a factory producing M-600 missiles for Hezbollah. So is Assad really looking for peace?
By Yossi Melman – Haaretz

At an undisclosed site, the Syrians have erected a factory that produces M-600 missiles, capable of hitting almost any target in Israel. According to the French newsletter Intelligence Online, the factory is a joint Iranian-Syrian venture. Iran funded construction of the site, and supplied the assembly line, the technology and the war doctrine. In return, Syria is committed to provide half of the factory’s production – that is, half the missiles – to Hezbollah…..

Young Hezbollah supporters holding mock ups of Katyusha rockets in front of a portrait of group leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Photo by: AP

During [the 2006] war, Israel bombed Lebanon with 7,000 tons of explosives, while the explosives from the approximately 4,000 rockets and missiles Hezbollah fired on Israel added up to “only” 28 tons.

“It is clear that in the next war we will look back and miss the 2006 conflict, in terms of the amount of explosives that will fall on Israel,” says a senior intelligence source. The question is whether this war will take place, when and with whom.

While experts say Hezbollah is preparing itself for war with Israel, there are no signs that it intends to start one any time soon. In fact, the Second Lebanon War limited Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s room to maneuver. The political and military leadership in Iran was angered by Hezbollah’s decision to kidnap Israeli soldiers in the ambush that kicked off the war with Israel. The Iranians did not want war at that point, and believed Nasrallah was mistaken in approving the kidnapping without first consulting them. As a result, they took away his right to decide whether to attack Israel in the future.

A more interesting question being debated by Israeli intelligence is just where Syrian President Bashar Assad is heading. This is an issue of intentions, which intelligence – all intelligence services – always wonder about. Assad’s capabilities can be quantified: Exact and up-to-date information can be acquired (Israel does this successfully ) about the number of Syrian soldiers, the structure of the army and its weapons, its theories of war and so on. It is much harder to determine the intentions of the Syrian leader, especially because they are the decisions of one man or no more than a small forum made up of army commanders and advisors.

Israeli intelligence is divided into optimists and pessimists. At the head of the optimist pack is Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, head of the IDF research department, who believes that if Assad receives the Golan Heights back from Israel, he will consent to a peace agreement and everything it implies – including open borders, limited commercial relations and diplomatic ties. Outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi believes there is an opportunity here for a diplomatic process, and that everything must be done to pursue it.

In contrast, retiring Mossad chief Meir Dagan holds that Assad will never agree to peace with Israel, because hostility toward Israel is what justifies his rule. The outgoing director of Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin, feels Assad is still uncertain about which path to take, although he thinks the Syrian leader’s behavior in recent years shows that he is tending to distance himself from peace, just as Dagan contends. Israeli intelligence describes this as “strengthening self-confidence to the point of insolence.”

‘Told you so’

Before the United Staes invaded Iraq in 2003, Assad’s advisors suggested that he support President George W. Bush, just as his father and predecessor Hafez Assad joined the senior Bush’s coalition during the first Gulf War. Bashar Assad refused. Today he may feel this was a good bet and could tell his advisors, “I told you so.” He did not join the American war, and still he is courted by the U.S. administration.

In contrast with both his father’s stance and his own earlier positions, Assad is stiffening his demands. He is not prepared to forgo an alliance with Hezbollah and Iran, even in return for a peace agreement with Israel. Still, despite everything, he continues to act with great care and tries not to break the rules.

“What does Assad want?” the intelligence community asks. “That’s a tough question,” they answer themselves.

Troops sent to Lebanon’s south
(By Bill Varner, The Washington Post)

UNITED NATIONS — Lebanon is sending as many as 5,000 additional soldiers to the country’s south after clashes between civilians and United Nations troops and Israel’s warning that Hezbollah is preparing for a new war there.

Obama-Netanyahu Meeting 5: A Victory for Both Sides and New Energy To Move the Peace Process Forward
Steven Cohen, Hffington Post

Both leaders decided to give up their attempts to intimidate each other and, instead, to cooperate in order to achieve some results while the two men are still in office. Both leaders reached the conclusion that the special relationship between their two countries… must be bolstered…. I expect that direct talks will resume before the 2010 United Nations General Assembly in September. It would be made possible, not only by the economic improvements in Palestinian life engendered by effective Palestinian leadership, but also by an undeclared continuation of the Israeli settlement freeze without further provocations against the Palestinians in Jerusalem.

Obama Says Chances for Peace in the Middle East are Slim

“Obama indicated that chances for peace in the Middle East are slim during his interview on Israeli TV 2. He said that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu understands this.

شار الرئيس الأمريكي باراك أوباما إلى أن فرص السلام في الشرق الأوسط ضئيلة. واعتبر في مقابلة مع القناة التلفزيونية الإسرائيلية الثانية أن رئيس الوزراء الاسرائيلي بنيامين نتنياهو قد فهم هذا الأمر بعد اللقاء الذي جمع الطرفين

Meeting in 2008

Jewish senator may mediate Israel-Syria talks
Roni Sofer, Published: 07.10.10, Ynet

President Assad asks Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter to mediate new peace negotiations, Jerusalem officials believe move was spurred by severe US sanctions on Iran. Ayalon: Talks must begin without preconditions.

A covert message was conveyed this weekend from Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon to Syrian President Bashar Assad through US Senator Arlen Specter, Ynet learned Saturday. Israeli officials believe the Syrian president’s timing was not accidental, and that the country is altering its position on talks with Israel following new sanctions on Iran.

Ayalon told Specter that Israel wanted peace, but that negotiations must begin with no preconditions. He said Israel would agree to hold the talks “anytime, anywhere”, either public or covert. When asked about a possible military conflict this summer, Ayalon told the senator Israel was not planning to attack its northern neighbors.

Anthony Cordesman gives a bit of ground truth about the Iran fear factory – bless his heart.

The Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf
Anthony Cordesman, July 9, 2010

The CSIS Middle East Program hosted Dr. Anthony Cordesman on June 24, 2010, for a Gulf Roundtable discussing the military capabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman – in the face of challenges from Iran.

In a conventional war against Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries would almost certainly win, according to Dr. Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. Cordesman offered his assessment of Iran’s military capabilities and potential responses to them at a Gulf Roundtable hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program on June 24, 2010.

According to Cordesman, the GCC countries outspend the Islamic Republic on defense by a factor of ten, and they enjoy U.S. military support. The real threat to Iran’s neighbors, and to their unfettered export of oil, lies in Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities.

Although Iran boasts a robust military inventory, Cordesman asserted that a large portion of the country’s armor, land-based air defenses, and naval equipment date back to the 1970s and or is no match for the GCC’s superior arsenal. The mix of old equipment and less capable Russian and Chinese weapons not only presents significant logistical problems on the battlefield, but helps negate Iran’s comparative advantage in manpower. Cordesman noted that “40 to 60 percent” of Iranian planes are non-operational and that artillery must be towed from one position to another. Despite the Iranian government’s claim to be developing new weapons – and its occasional arms deals with Russia and China – Cordesman judged that, in reality, the Iranian military is modernizing at an “extremely slow” rate.

Regarding Iran’s missile capabilities, he claimed that “almost a cottage industry” exists in exaggerating the Iranian missile threat. Cordesman judged that this threat could become extremely serious over time, but that the accuracy and lethality of Iranian missiles was far worse than many news reports suggest, rendering them useless for most military uses other than as terrorist weapons.

By contrast, he said, Iran has devoted extensive resources to developing its asymmetric warfare capabilities to compensate for its depreciating conventional military infrastructure. The government has significantly modernized its 20,000-man-strong International Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval branch and given it principal responsibility for operations inside the Gulf. (The regular navy operates principally outside the Gulf). The IRGC has a wide variety of assets at its disposal to threaten shipping lanes, including large-scale mining warfare capability, missile patrol boats, and a fleet of heavily armed attack vessels. Given the world’s dependence on oil imports from the Gulf, Cordesman judged that containing these threats will be a long-term strategic consideration for both the United States and its GCC allies.

Cordesman cited Iran’s ability to wage indirect, proxy warfare as another key component of its asymmetric threat. While the Al Quds force receives much of the credit for running training camps for unconventional warfare and aiding terrorist groups throughout the region, Cordesman noted that Iranian diplomats and intelligence people are also engaged in these activities. Iranian financial and military support has perpetuated the existence of Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iraq-based military groups, thereby complicating U.S. efforts to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and stabilize Iraq.

In addition to increasing its regional clout and influence, Iran has also invested “massive” resources into strengthening its internal security. The aftermath of the June 2009 elections demonstrated these paramilitary forces’ ability to effectively mobilize and quell internal opposition.

Perhaps the most menacing manifestation of Iran’s desire to tip the regional military balance in its favor is its pursuit of nuclear capability. Cordesman cautioned that the United States should prepare to cope with a nuclear Iran, but questioned how soon Tehran will be able to convert its nuclear program into an operational threat. Given the poor quality and upkeep of Iran’s conventional military equipment and infrastructure, he also suggested that it would take time and extensive testing to make an Iranian-produced nuclear weapon reliable and effective.

Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities threaten GCC countries despite their superior conventional weaponry and U.S. military backing. Cordesman contended that this is partially due to structural and coordination problems within the GCC itself. He characterized the Council’s efforts at military interoperability as “little more than empty rhetoric,” citing its lack of mission focus and poor coordination. In particular, most GCC countries prefer to cooperate with the United States, France, and the United Kingdom instead of each other, which hampers their interoperability. On a tactical level, Cordesman noted that the Gulf countries have flawed training and integration schemes for their forces; he highlighted that they often train their pilots to be “knights of the air” asopposed to “fighters in an air force.”

Despite these flaws, he posited that the United States and its GCC allies have tools at their disposal to contain Iran’s threat. He recommended that the United States continue to promote intra-GCC cooperation through continued advisory missions and high-level delegations. Additionally, he argued, the United States should continue to maintain a strong military presence in the Gulf and provide logistical support and training to GCC forces. This requires maintaining its military bases in the Gulf, upgrading GCC countries’ defense systems, and providing counterterrorism support and intelligence. He maintained that these measures would both act as deterrents against low-level Iranian acts of aggression and also reassure GCC states that they can count on the United States should Iran overstep its bounds.

To cope with Iran’s nuclear program, Cordesman advised that the United States should continue to support sanctions against Iran and closely monitor the development of the country’s nuclear program through intelligence and satellite imagery. Given that Iran has close to seventy nuclear facilities – many in northwest Iran and many still likely undiscovered – he cautioned that a U.S.- or Israeli-led military strike is likely to fail to comprehensively destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. He said that the best military option would be what the Obama administration called “extended regional deterrence” and strong missile defenses.

A detailed assessment of the Gulf military balance, entitled “The Gulf Military Balance in 2010: An Overview,” is HERE.

Syria’s ruler marks decade in power
By Roula Khalaf,  July 8 2010 19:30

Staying in power for a decade is no achievement in the Middle East, where authoritarian rule keeps leaders going for a lifetime. In the case of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, however, even a shorter tenure was never guaranteed…..

The safer environment that Mr Assad faces removes an main excuse for inaction on the domestic front. “He has emerged unscathed from very difficult circumstances,” says Jon Alterman, Middle East director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“The great disappointment is that after a lot of optimism that Syria’s future would not look like the past, the future does look like the past, with low economic growth, lack of personal freedom and a government that is an obstacle to progress.”……

rue, the president and his glamorous wife, Asma, project the image of a modern couple. And Damascus has developed a more cosmopolitan feel, with new construction, restaurants and smart boutique hotels. Limited economic liberalisation, meanwhile, has opened up the socialist economy to private banking and eased foreign exchange controls. But fundamental barriers to investment – corruption, inefficiency and the heavy hand of the state – remain.

“The business environment is off-putting for many significant investors,” says Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank. “But the expectations of society are higher in as much as Syria achieved some success on the foreign policy front, so the argument saying not much can be done to improve living standards because of outside pressure doesn’t work quite as well.”

The consolidation of Mr Assad’s rule also has not translated into a greater willingness to tolerate opposition. Only last week, Haitham Maleh, a 78-year-old human rights lawyer, was jailed for three years for “weakening national morale”.

“There’s always been a question about whether Assad is a true reformer hampered by an old guard or he only talked reform at first to gain some legitimacy,” says Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch. “The record after 10 years is that he’s not truly committed to internal reform.”

Syria Offers 40% of Land for Oil, Gas Exploration, Thawra Says
2010-07-09 By Zainab Fattah

July 9 (Bloomberg) — Syria’s government has offered 74,000 square-kilometers of land, or 40 percent of the country, to international oil and gas companies for exploration, Al Thawra newspaper reported, citing the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resouces. In addition to new exploration on the land, the ministry is seeking the restoration of old wells where production ceased in the past several years, the newspaper reported. About 10 oil companies are currently exploring sites in Syria, including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and PetroCanada, although production is yet to start, the newspaper said.

Syrian Households to Receive SYP 10,000 Heating subsidy (Syria Report)
The new plan to help Syrian households pay for their heating bills has been passed into Law by the Syrian President.

Syria Sees Slight Improvement in Corruption Index (Syria Report)
Syria’s ranking in the latest edition of the Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International has improved for the first time in more than five years.

Army Commander Jean Qahwaji said the the Lebanese Army is not in south Lebanon to ‘protect Israel’ as he divulged that the LAF receives from the UNIFIL, detailed lists of ‘premises to be searched’. As to the ’source’ of these lists, Qahwaji said it bluntly that these were ‘Israeli lists’…. It is the first and strongest rebuke by the Head of the Lebanese Army of UNIFIL’s tactics …

Lebanese Shi’ite women marching in Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah’s

Octavia, Frances, and the Late, Great Ayatollah Fadlallah
Sharmine Narwani
Senior Associate, St. Antony’s College, Oxford University, July 9 2010

Hezbollah grows up
By Avi Issacharoff, 9 July 2010

Four years after the Second Lebanon War, the Shi’ite group has managed to rebuild its military capabilities across from Israel’s northern frontier. Still, most sources say it’s not interested in another round of fighting.

Media group urges Syria to drop journalists’ case
Published: 07.10.10

A press freedom group urged Syria to drop criminal defamation charges against two journalists it said could face three years in jail over their reports into alleged corruption at a state fertilizer company. The Committee to Protect Journalists said Bassam Ali and Suhaila Ismail investigated misuse of funds at the Public Company for Fertilizers in Syria. The group said that after their reports were published in 2005 and 2006, the minister of industry fired the company director, who then filed a lawsuit against the journalists for defamation and “resisting the socialist system”. (Reuters)

The Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf
[SUSRIS ITEM OF INTEREST]

July 9, 2010

SUSRIS wishes to thank Dr. Jon Alterman, Director of the CSIS Middle East Program for permission to share this Gulf Roundtable report with you. Gulf Roundtable: The Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf
Anthony Cordesman The CSIS Middle East Program hosted Dr. Anthony Cordesman on June 24, 2010, for a Gulf Roundtable discussing the military capabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman – in the face of challenges from Iran. In a conventional war against Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries would almost certainly win, according to Dr. Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. Cordesman offered his assessment of Iran’s military capabilities and potential responses to them at a Gulf Roundtable hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program on June 24, 2010. According to Cordesman, the GCC countries outspend the Islamic Republic on defense by a factor of ten, and they enjoy U.S. military support. The real threat to Iran’s neighbors, and to their unfettered export of oil, lies in Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities. Although Iran boasts a robust military inventory, Cordesman asserted that a large portion of the country’s armor, land-based air defenses, and naval equipment date back to the 1970s and or is no match for the GCC’s superior arsenal. The mix of old equipment and less capable Russian and Chinese weapons not only presents significant logistical problems on the battlefield, but helps negate Iran’s comparative advantage in manpower. Cordesman noted that “40 to 60 percent” of Iranian planes are non-operational and that artillery must be towed from one position to another. Despite the Iranian government’s claim to be developing new weapons – and its occasional arms deals with Russia and China – Cordesman judged that, in reality, the Iranian military is modernizing at an “extremely slow” rate. Regarding Iran’s missile capabilities, he claimed that “almost a cottage industry” exists in exaggerating the Iranian missile threat. Cordesman judged that this threat could become extremely serious over time, but that the accuracy and lethality of Iranian missiles was far worse than many news reports suggest, rendering them useless for most military uses other than as terrorist weapons. By contrast, he said, Iran has devoted extensive resources to developing its asymmetric warfare capabilities to compensate for its depreciating conventional military infrastructure. The government has significantly modernized its 20,000-man-strong International Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval branch and given it principal responsibility for operations inside the Gulf. (The regular navy operates principally outside the Gulf). The IRGC has a wide variety of assets at its disposal to threaten shipping lanes, including large-scale mining warfare capability, missile patrol boats, and a fleet of heavily armed attack vessels. Given the world’s dependence on oil imports from the Gulf, Cordesman judged that containing these threats will be a long-term strategic consideration for both the United States and its GCC allies. Cordesman cited Iran’s ability to wage indirect, proxy warfare as another key component of its asymmetric threat. While the Al Quds force receives much of the credit for running training camps for unconventional warfare and aiding terrorist groups throughout the region, Cordesman noted that Iranian diplomats and intelligence people are also engaged in these activities. Iranian financial and military support has perpetuated the existence of Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iraq-based military groups, thereby complicating U.S. efforts to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and stabilize Iraq. In addition to increasing its regional clout and influence, Iran has also invested “massive” resources into strengthening its internal security. The aftermath of the June 2009 elections demonstrated these paramilitary forces’ ability to effectively mobilize and quell internal opposition. Perhaps the most menacing manifestation of Iran’s desire to tip the regional military balance in its favor is its pursuit of nuclear capability. Cordesman cautioned that the United States should prepare to cope with a nuclear Iran, but questioned how soon Tehran will be able to convert its nuclear program into an operational threat. Given the poor quality and upkeep of Iran’s conventional military equipment and infrastructure, he also suggested that it would take time and extensive testing to make an Iranian-produced nuclear weapon reliable and effective. Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities threaten GCC countries despite their superior conventional weaponry and U.S. military backing. Cordesman contended that this is partially due to structural and coordination problems within the GCC itself. He characterized the Council’s efforts at military interoperability as “little more than empty rhetoric,” citing its lack of mission focus and poor coordination. In particular, most GCC countries prefer to cooperate with the United States, France, and the United Kingdom instead of each other, which hampers their interoperability. On a tactical level, Cordesman noted that the Gulf countries have flawed training and integration schemes for their forces; he highlighted that they often train their pilots to be “knights of the air” asopposed to “fighters in an air force.” Despite these flaws, he posited that the United States and its GCC allies have tools at their disposal to contain Iran’s threat. He recommended that the United States continue to promote intra-GCC cooperation through continued advisory missions and high-level delegations. Additionally, he argued, the United States should continue to maintain a strong military presence in the Gulf and provide logistical support and training to GCC forces. This requires maintaining its military bases in the Gulf, upgrading GCC countries’ defense systems, and providing counterterrorism support and intelligence. He maintained that these measures would both act as deterrents against low-level Iranian acts of aggression and also reassure GCC states that they can count on the United States should Iran overstep its bounds. To cope with Iran’s nuclear program, Cordesman advised that the United States should continue to support sanctions against Iran and closely monitor the development of the country’s nuclear program through intelligence and satellite imagery. Given that Iran has close to seventy nuclear facilities – many in northwest Iran and many still likely undiscovered – he cautioned that a U.S.- or Israeli-led military strike is likely to fail to comprehensively destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. He said that the best military option would be what the Obama administration called “extended regional deterrence” and strong missile defenses. A detailed assessment of the Gulf military balance, entitled “The Gulf Military Balance in 2010: An Overview,” is HERE.
Gulf Roundtable Series – The Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf – Anthony Cordesman

Qifa Nabki has published an interview with me that is generating some discussion: Syrian-Israeli Peace: A Conversation With Joshua Landis

Here are two cultural stories of interest:

Syrian Cinema: Thumbing Its Nose at the Censor
Susanne Schanda, editing by Lewis Gropp/Qantara.de

Politically explosive films and television series from Syria are storming the Arab market. Now the film “The Long Night” – the first Syrian feature film to highlight the fate of political prisoners – has become ensnared in the censorship process. It is nevertheless reaching its audience via satellite television – even in Syria. Susanne Schanda reports that although the censors were full of praise for “The Long Night”, they passed it on to a higher authority for consideration.

"Then suddenly he's out on the street": "The Long Night" deals with members of the released prisoner's family, who have come to an arrangement with the regime and made their compromises. The film by Haitham Hakki, one of Syria's best-known filmmakers, does not focus on prison conditions or the arbitrary nature of detentions. It deals instead with members of the released prisoner's family. The unexpected release of Karim throws their lives into confusion, and triggers recriminations and feelings of remorse. ...Companies run by Saudis are the most liberal in the Arab world. "Those who invest large amounts of money want to see profit, and ideological questions are of secondary importance," he says soberly.

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"The censors can't shut down the universe": Syrian scriptwriter and filmmaker Haitham Hakki

Four men in blue prison gear with unkempt grey hair and stubble sit in their cell drinking tea. The light is crepuscular, the plaster is peeling off the walls. They have been behind bars for 20 years for criticising the regime. Karim is the oldest, he stays lying down on his metal bed and has his tea brought to him. He is resigned to his fate. Then the heavy iron door swings open, and out of all the men it is Karim who is ordered to pack his things and go with the guards. He is being released.

The opening scenes of “The Long Night” are almost wordless, and there is no music to break the silence. We watch as Karim washes himself, as the guards shave him and cut his hair. Then suddenly he’s out on the street, in a shirt and suit, a leather bag in his hand – he sniffs the air, and takes in his surroundings with amazement.

The film by Haitham Hakki, one of Syria’s best-known filmmakers, does not focus on prison conditions or the arbitrary nature of detentions. It deals instead with members of the released prisoner’s family, who have come to an arrangement with the regime and made their compromises. The unexpected release of Karim throws their lives into confusion, and triggers recriminations and feelings of remorse.

“I am concerned with the human drama, the film does not operate with political slogans,” says Haitham Hakki in an interview with Qantara.de in Damascus. He wrote the screenplay himself. Once this was approved by the censors, the film could be made in Syria with Syrian actors, under the supervision of star director Hatem Ali.

But the film required further authorisation before it could go on general release in Syrian cinemas. “The censors were full of praise for the film, but because of the sensitive political subject they passed it on to a higher authority for consideration. That was about six months ago. I’ve heard nothing since,” says the author…..( Read the rest)

Interview with Hakki:

The quality of the Syrian productions is by far superior to those of other Arab countries. How did Syria, of all places, reach that level?

Hakki: Right from the start, our aim was to make TV series with the quality of films. So we began to shoot with one mobile instead of three fixed cameras and went outside of the studios to real locations. Also, we let the actors speak the Syrian dialect. Before that everything had been spoken in modern standard Arabic, but using dialect sounds much more natural and makes the series more realistic. Today, the television industry in Egypt hires Syrian directors and actors to help improve the quality there.

How would you evaluate the economic importance of TV series in Syria?

Hakki: Today, TV series are the second biggest industry in Syria right after the oil industry. In the whole Middle East, only Egypt produces more than us, 3000 hours of series a year. Syria produces 1500 hours – that is equivalent to 50 TV dramas. Each one of them has 30 episodes so that they can be shown during Ramadan. There must be one episode for every day of the month of fasting…..

None of Us Were Like This Before: American Soldiers and Torture
Joshua E. S. Phillips (Phillips book is excellent and has several scenes in Syria, where Phillips interviewed Iraq refugees and played hide and seek with the mukhabarat, who thought he was up to no good and eventually chased him out of the country.) Here is the Amazon blurb about the book.

The legacy of torture in the “War on Terror,” told through the story of one tank battalion. “A lot of people look at Adam Gray’s story and say people who commit suicide are cowards or they don’t have, in the army lingo, ‘intestinal fortitude,’ ‘the hoorah’ or whatever. It’s exactly the opposite. Adam was the most gung-ho soldier I ever met in my entire life—the first guy to kick down a door. [But] I think he hated who he was when he was there. And I think he couldn’t deal with what he had done. And I still have trouble with that. It haunts me every day, and it’s something I’ll never get away from.”—Jonathan Millantz, served with Adam Gray in Battalion 1-68 in Iraq. On April 3, 2009, Jonathan Millantz took his own life.

Sergeant Adam Gray made it home from a year’s tour in Iraq only to die in his barracks. For more than three years, reporter Joshua Phillips—with the support of Adam’s mother and the cooperation of his Army buddies—investigated Adam’s death. What Phillips uncovered was a story of American veterans psychologically scarred by the abuse they had meted out to Iraqi prisoners. How did US forces turn to torture? Phillips’s narrative recounts the journey of a tank battalion— trained for conventional combat—as its focus switches to guerrilla war and prisoner detention. It tells of how a group of ordinary soldiers, ill trained for the responsibilities foisted upon them, descended into the degradations of abuse. The location is far from CIA prisons and Guantánamo, but the story captures the widespread use and nature of torture in the US armed forces. Based on firsthand reporting from Jordan, Syria and Afghanistan, as well as interviews with soldiers, their families and friends, military officials, and the victims of torture, None of Us Were Like This Before reveals how soldiers, senior officials, and the US public came to believe that torture was both effective and necessary. The book illustrates that the damaging legacy of torture is not only borne by the detainees, but also by American soldiers and the country to which they’ve returned.

A Reader Review: “This book is engaging and affecting from the first to last page. The book is not dry policy discussion, overly graphic, or accusatory in tone. Phillips focuses instead on the personal stories of U.S. soldiers and civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. His empathy for those he profiles shines through the pages. Phillips does not offer simple answers to why torture happens, but instead explores the many influences — personal, governmental, and cultural — that lead to it and to the tragedies it produces both for the tortured and the torturer. “

Also of note considering the ongoing debate over the legacy of Fadlallah is this excellent article.

The Sheikh Who Got Away Foreign Policy
BY DAVID KENNER | JULY 6, 2010

How the United States got Lebanon’s leading Shiite cleric dead wrong — and missed a chance to change the Middle East forever. ….

Conclusion

Following the end of the Lebanese civil war, Fadlallah became more circumspect about justifying attacks on Western targets. Along with Hezbollah and Iran, Fadlallah condemned the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks as incompatible with Islamic law. The attackers, he said, were not martyrs but “merely suicides.” He attributed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s motivations for carrying out the attacks to “personal psychological needs” stemming from a “tribal urge for revenge.” He also denounced the July 7, 2005, attacks in London as “a kind of barbarism that Islam unequivocally rejects.”

As Fadlallah grew in stature throughout the Arab world and also seized the attention of many in Washington, the competing portrayals of him quickly failed to bear even a passing resemblance to each other. For the U.S. government, he was an unrepentant terrorist who played an integral role in Hezbollah’s most vicious operations. To the mourners in Beirut, he was a fierce critic of colonialism and an important pioneer in efforts to reconcile traditional religious teaching with modernity and gender equality.

There was an element of truth to the U.S. stance: Fadlallah was certainly no liberal, nor an ally to be recruited to advance U.S. security goals. However, even a quarter-century after that misguided assassination attempt, U.S. officials failed to appreciate the areas where their interests and Fadlallah’s overlapped, both in isolating Iran and reducing the appeal of fundamentalism within Lebanon. The United States always preferred blunt instruments and simple epithets — crude tools indeed for a complex man.

Here is a good article by Tony Badran on Fadlallah. Not too often that I like Tony’s work.

The death of a marja
Lebanon Now, by Tony Badran The passing of Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah marks the end of an era for Lebanese Shiism. Who will attempt to fill his shoes as the leading marja remains to be seen, though it is safe to assume Iran, which never recognized his status, will try to fill the vacuum….

Michael Young explains why Fadlallah was not a liberal in Lebanon Now.